Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Mercatus Center Podcasts
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Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

  1. Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy

    6 DAYS AGO

    Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy

    Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more.   DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Jon’s podcast: Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Jon’s Twitter: @Jon_Hartley_ Jon’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution   *The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle: Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Across Countries and Time* by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott   *Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification from U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements* by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon   *The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan   *The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment* by Nuno Palma   *Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold* by Francois Velde   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Bumper   (00:00:41) – Intro   (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee   (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor?   (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up?   (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy   (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter?   (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth   (00:59:41) – Outro

    1 hr
  2. Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review

    28 OCT

    Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review

    Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Tara’s Twitter: @TaraSinc Tara’s website Tara’s GWU profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference   *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting   *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser   *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn   *Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market* by Michael Kiley   *Did the Federal Reserve’s 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review* by Christina Romer and David Romer   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department   (00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database   (00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data   (00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches*   (00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges   (00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch*   (00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework   (00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal   (00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future?   (00:56:13) – Outro

    57 min
  3. Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review

    21 OCT

    Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review

    Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Joseph’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joseph’s PIIE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?* by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard   *Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era* by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge   (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge   (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature   (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies*   (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War*   (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting?   (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP   (00:57:40) – Outro

    58 min
  4. Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy

    14 OCT

    Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy

    Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Emilio’s Twitter: @ocampo_emilio Emilio’s Substack Emilio’s UCEMA profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo   *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky   *Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market is Thriving* by Ryan Dube   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation   (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance   (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie*   (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina   (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform   (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases   (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina   (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward   (00:58:48) – Outro

    59 min
  5. Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate

    7 OCT

    Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate

    Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon’s website Jonathon’s LSE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson   *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler   *Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings   *The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation   (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs*   (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications   (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned?   (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach*   (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives   (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation   (00:55:09) – Outro

    56 min
  6. Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

    30 SEPT

    Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

    Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Thomas’s website Thomas’s Twitter: @td_econ   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel   *Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel   *Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers   *Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez   *Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung   *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?   (00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance   (00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed   (00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results   (00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation   (00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results   (00:59:45) – Outro

    1 hr
  7. Matthew Pines on the Geopolitical and National Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption

    23 SEPT

    Matthew Pines on the Geopolitical and National Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption

    Matthew Pines is the director of intelligence for SentinelOne Strategic Advisory Group and is a veteran of the national security world. Matthew is also the author of several papers on cryptocurrencies and their implications for national security, including a recent one titled, *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin,* and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these linkages. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, the problems with our current network approach to national security, how digital currency can enhance dollar dominance worldwide, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Matthew’s Twitter: @matthew_pines Matthew’s Bitcoin Policy Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin* by Matthew Pines   *National Security in the Digital Age: Bitcoin as a Tool for Modern Statecraft* by authors Matthew Pines, Ben Kincaid, Robert Malka, James McGinniss, Lee Bratcher, Pierre Rochard, Lindsey Daley, Gabriel Royal, Thomas Wood, Ian Gaines, and Kyle Schneps   *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:35) – Matthew’s Journey into the National Security Space   (00:07:56) – Evaluating the Current Level of Defense Expenditures   (00:12:17) – An Executive Summary of *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin*   (00:16:11) – Problems with Our Current Network Approach to National Security   (00:26:24) – The Intersection of Monetary Policy and National Security   (00:29:55) – How Can Digital Currency Enhance Dollar Dominance Across the Globe?   (00:38:32) – Breaking Down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal and Its Implications   (00:48:13) – The National Defense Authorization Act and the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act: Basics and Implications   (00:57:29) – Outro

    58 min
  8. Travis Hill on the Discount Window, Receivership Funding, and Financial Tokenization

    16 SEPT

    Travis Hill on the Discount Window, Receivership Funding, and Financial Tokenization

    Travis Hill is the Vice Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about discount window and bank liquidity, receivership funding, and the tokenization of financial assets. Specifically, David and Travis also discuss the push for pre-positioning at the discount window, how the FDIC funds receiverships, the impact of tokenization on the future of banking, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Travis’s FDIC profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Reflections on Bank Regulatory and Resolution Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the American Enterprise Institute   *Banking’s Next Chapter? Remarks on Tokenization and Other Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the Mercatus Center   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:36) – The Unique Role of the FDIC and the Vice Chair   (00:10:58) – The Push for Pre-Positioning at the Discount Window   (00:20:19) – Addressing the Current Issues Relating to the Discount Window   (00:28:44) – How Does the FDIC Fund Receiverships?   (00:35:41) – Breaking Down the Federal Financing Bank   (00:40:10) – Discount Window Stigma and Uncollateralized Fed Funding   (00:45:44) – Tokenization and Its Impact on the Future of Banking and Cross-Border Payments   (00:54:40) – Outro

    55 min
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Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

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