Drivers of China’s Policy Toward Second Thomas Shoal

The waters, as well as the rocks, reefs and submerged shoals of the South China Sea are a major source of friction in East Asia. In recent months, tensions have flared between two of the claimants – China and the Philippines – over Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged feature in the Spratly Islands, which the Chinese call Ren Ai Jiao. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally grounded a Philippine Navy transport vessel called the Sierra Madre on the reef and since then the outpost has been manned by a small contingent of marines.

In 2016, an arbitral tribunal established under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled that Second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide elevation located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines and therefore sovereignty belongs to the Philippines. No other country can legitimately claim sovereignty over the feature or the waters around it. Beijing doesn’t recognize the ruling, even though it was legally binding on both China and the Philippines.

Late last year, Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels began aggressively interfering with the Philippines’ routine missions to deliver supplies to the Filipino forces on the Sierra Madre. On several occasions, Chinese ships have used high-pressure water cannons and rammed Filipino boats. The most serious confrontation took place in mid-June, when the Chinese used axes and knives to damage multiple Philippine vessels. A Filipino navy sailor lost his thumb in the skirmish. Negotiations between Beijing and Manila in early July produced a provisional arrangement, and the Philippines subsequently successfully conducted a resupply operation. It is uncertain whether the understanding will hold, however, since Beijing and Manila publicly disagree about what has been agreed upon.

To discuss the situation at Second Thomas Shoal and China’s approach to the South China Sea, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Zhang Feng, a visiting scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. His research focuses on Chinese foreign policy, international relations theory, and international relations in East Asia. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:31] Why is the South China Sea so important to China? 

[05:30] Has China overstepped in the South China Sea? 

[08:54] Reasons for Deepening Sino-Filipino Confrontation

[12:05] Beijing’s Reaction to a Reinforced Second Thomas Shoal

[13:30] Beijing’s Perception of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty

[16:44] Miscalculating American Willingness to Intervene

[21:32] Beijing-Manila Provisional Agreement 

[25:00] Chinese Deadline for the Philippines vis-à-vis the Second Thomas Shoal

[27:38] Gauging the Risk of Escalation or Conflict

[30:25] Stabilizing and Resolving the Second Thomas Shoal Issue