Afford Anything

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Afford Anything

You can afford anything, but not everything. We make daily decisions about how to spend money, time, energy, focus and attention – and ultimately, our life. How do we make smarter decisions? How do we think from first principles? On the surface, Afford Anything seems like a podcast about money and investing. But under the hood, this is a show about how to think critically, recognize our behavioral blind spots, and make smarter choices. We’re into the psychology of money, and we love metacognition: thinking about how to think. In some episodes, we interview world-class experts: professors, researchers, scientists, authors. In other episodes, we answer your questions, talking through decision-making frameworks and mental models. Want to learn more? Download our free book, Escape, at http://affordanything.com/escape. Hosted by Paula Pant.

  1. 1 DAY AGO

    Q&A: Why Your Retirement Math Isn’t Adding Up

    #561: Joanne is confident that her short and long-term financial plans are set, but she’s not certain about the medium-term. What’s the proper way to allocate money for different time horizons? Jessie is intrigued by Paul Merriman’s simple portfolio recommendations but wonders about his lean away from growth stocks. Are value funds generally better for everyday investors? Nancy is worried she’ll miscalculate her financial independence number because her net worth includes pre and post-tax money, plus liquid and illiquid investments. What’s the right approach?  Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode. Enjoy! For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode561 Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. (00:00) Joe, did your clients severely miscalculate their own FIRE number? (03:14) Joanne (31:42) Jesse (47:00) Nancy P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    1h 8m

  2. 5 DAYS AGO

    The Father of the 4% Rule Finally Sets the Record Straight

    #560: Bill Bengen, the former rocket scientist who discovered the "4 percent rule" of retirement planning, joins us at the Bogleheads conference in Minnesota. Bengen clarifies that calling it a "rule" is misleading since it doesn't fit everyone's situation. The 4 percent figure came from studying the worst-case scenario since 1926, when someone who retired in 1968 could only safely withdraw 4.2 percent annually. Out of 400+ retirees in his database, that was the only one who had such a low safe withdrawal rate — most could take out much more. Recent research has pushed the "safe" withdrawal rate closer to 5 percent. But Bengen identifies eight key factors that affect how much you can withdraw, including how long you'll be retired and whether you're drawing from taxable or tax-deferred accounts. For early retirees planning for 50-60 years, Bengen says the safe withdrawal rate asymptotically approaches 4.2 percent — meaning even with an infinite time horizon, it won't drop below that. He thinks the common advice to use 3 percent for early retirement is unnecessarily conservative. Bengen shares what he calls the "four free lunches" in retirement planning: 1. Using an equity glide path (reducing stocks at retirement, then increasing later) 2. Diversification across asset classes 3. Regular portfolio rebalancing 4. Slightly overweighting higher-returning assets like small-cap stocks When it comes to market drops versus inflation, Bengen has clear advice: Don't panic during bear markets — they typically recover. But if you hit extended high inflation early in retirement, it's time to "head for the bunkers" and cut expenses drastically. Beyond finance, Bengen shares his excitement about space exploration as a former rocket scientist who graduated from MIT just months before the moon landing. He hopes to live long enough to see humans reach Mars and believes space tourism helps people appreciate Earth's beauty and fragility. The interview ends with a light-hearted discussion about whether Pluto should still be considered a planet (Bengen still calls it one, out of habit) and speculation about future tourism to Saturn's moon Titan once the sun's expansion makes it warmer in a few hundred million years. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 0:00 Paula introduces Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% withdrawal rule 2:19 Bengen explains how the 4% rule represents a worst-case scenario from 1968 10:14 Bengen warns against using a fixed percentage withdrawal method, as it could lead to dangerously low income in down markets 17:32 Discussion of the "smile" pattern in retirement spending - high at start, dips in middle, rises at end for medical costs 23:22 Bengen shares the four "free lunches" in retirement planning, including equity glide path and diversification 34:25 Conversation shifts to bonds and stocks no longer being inversely correlated in 2022 35:44 Deep dive into Black Swan events and how to prepare for unpredictable market crashes 42:14 Bengen advises when to panic (inflation) and when not to panic (bear markets) during retirement 49:20 Analysis of spending categories that rise faster than inflation, like healthcare and housing 51:27 Bengen discusses graduating MIT in 1969, just before the moon landing 51:56 Conversation turns to current space exploration and plans for Mars missions 53:39 Bengen speculates about future tourism to Saturn's moon Titan 54:17 Light-hearted debate about Pluto's planetary status Resource Mentioned https://affordanything.com/377-how-i-discovered-the-4-percent-retirement-rule-with-bill-bengen For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode560 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    58 min

  3. 20 NOV

    Q&A: Should We Ditch Rental Properties Entirely?

    #559: An anonymous caller, whom we name “Samantha,” and her husband are financially strained and feeling torn. Shortly after purchasing two rental properties, their income dropped dramatically. Should they sell? Tina is a full-time environmentalist. She’s worried that her index funds don’t align with her values on sustainability. Is there a world where she can be a savvy investor and fight climate change? Another anonymous caller, whom we name “Sarah,” is excited and uncertain about her growing business. Should she hold steady or invest more resources into it? And how does she know if she’s making the right call? Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode. Enjoy! P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail. For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode559 The Efficient Frontier: Join Joe for an exclusive live session all about the efficient frontier (aka the secret sauce of smarter investing). This 90 minute online event is Thursday November 21st at 8pm ET / 5pm Pacific. Head on over to http://stackingbenjamins.com/efficient to grab your spot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    1h 16m

  4. 15 NOV

    Why Your Retirement Math Might Be All Wrong — If You Follow the 4% Rule

    #558: What happens when you spend three decades talking to retirement experts? You learn that most of what people think they know about retirement planning is oversimplified or wrong. Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, joins us on the Afford Anything podcast to share what she's discovered after 31 years of interviewing experts across personal finance, tax planning, and Social Security. One key insight: The standard advice about withdrawing 4 percent of your portfolio annually in retirement misses the mark. Real-life spending isn't that simple. In your 60s, you might spend more on travel. By your 80s, healthcare costs often rise. Benz suggests creating separate "pots" of money for different purposes - like a travel fund you aim to deplete within your first decade of retirement. Want to protect against market crashes early in retirement? Benz recommends keeping 5-8 years of planned withdrawals in cash and high-quality bonds. This prevents having to sell stocks during downturns. We talk about why retirement doesn't need to be all-or-nothing. Instead of going from 40 hours to zero, Benz describes how many people benefit from a phased approach. This might mean keeping the parts of your job you enjoy while dropping the rest, or finding new ways to use your skills. The conversation shifts to housing choices. While many assume retirees move to Florida or Arizona, the data shows most stay put. Those who do move often end up near their oldest daughter. And while single-family homes tend to make people happier until around age 75, apartment dwellers report more satisfaction after that — largely due to increased social interaction. Benz shares her own retirement planning process. Despite being a retirement expert herself, she works with an hourly financial planner who tells her she'll likely struggle to spend as much as she could in retirement. It's a common problem — after decades of saving habits, many retirees find it psychologically difficult to spend their money. The interview wraps up with a discussion about relationships in retirement. Research shows that while older adults often have smaller social circles, these relationships tend to be deeper and more meaningful. They've pruned away the "good enough" friendships to focus on their closest connections. Benz's insights come from her new book "How to Retire" and her work at Morningstar, where she creates free model portfolios and hosts The Long View podcast. Beyond the financial aspects, she emphasizes that successful retirement planning involves thinking about purpose, relationships, and how you want to spend your days — not just your money. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 0:00 What 30 years of retirement expert interviews reveal 1:34 Why spending in retirement is harder than saving for it 3:12 Beyond money: need purpose, not just leisure 4:00 The challenge: planning for an unknown time horizon 8:52 Should market fears delay your retirement? 13:42 How much cash and bonds to keep safe 15:49 When bonds don't protect against stock crashes 18:33 Phased retirement: keep what you love, drop what you don't 29:24 Take mini-retirements throughout your career 33:20 Spending shifts: from travel to healthcare costs 46:14 Why most retirees don't actually move 57:31 After 75, apartment living beats houses 1:00:42 Friendship patterns change: quality over quantity 1:04:58 Virtual vs real-life connections 1:06:25 Where to find more info For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode558 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    1h 9m

  5. 12 NOV

    Help! The Money is Good … But My Dream Life is Different

    #557: Imagine saving nearly your entire paycheck while your rental properties cover your bills. That's exactly where real estate investor Andrew finds himself — and yet he's at a crossroads.  At FinCon, a personal finance conference, former financial advisor Joe Saul-Sehy and I sit down with Andrew and another attendee who bring their money dilemmas live on stage. Andrew's question seems simple at first: should he sell his index funds to pay off his rental mortgages? But the real story runs deeper.  He feels called to entrepreneurship and wants to quit his corporate job to pursue it full-time. He could achieve minimal financial independence (lean-FIRE) if he pays off the properties, but that might limit his options. Next, Chris, a Gen X dad, opens up about his Gen Z kids' gloomy money outlook. His 22 and 24-year-old children, especially his daughter, believe their generation "will never retire." They see high inflation, expensive housing, and low wages as insurmountable obstacles. This sparks a deeper conversation about generational perspectives. We note that similar fears existed 15 years ago when millennials entered the workforce during the Great Recession. Joe shares how he helped his own kids develop healthier money mindsets by introducing them to financial voices they could relate to, like Broke Millennial author Erin Lowry. The discussion evolves into how today's young people actually have more opportunities than previous generations — they can work remotely, start online businesses with minimal capital, and create multiple income streams through platforms that didn't exist before. Chris's daughter, for instance, sometimes makes $35/hour driving for DoorDash during peak times. We wrap up by talking about the importance of focusing on what you can control and finding purpose beyond just retirement planning. As Andrew points out, it might be worse to spend the best years of your life doing work you don't care about than to face uncertainty in retirement. The key is taking action on the things within your control while building toward long-term security. Throughout the conversation, both guests share personal stories that illuminate their situations - from Andrew's experience at an oil refinery that pushed him toward entrepreneurship to Chris's daughter storing cash for taxes from her DoorDash earnings, showing she's more financially aware than she might think. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 1:50 Andrew asks about index funds vs real estate allocation 4:04 Could Andrew reach lean-FIRE by paying off rentals? 5:00 Joe suggests keeping investments flexible vs mortgage payoff 8:05 Debate over HELOC vs index fund liquidity 10:10 Andrew's bigger dreams beyond real estate investing 17:40 Choosing between W2 security and entrepreneurial freedom 19:20 Andrew saves nearly entire salary while rentals cover bills 24:20 Chris worried about Gen Z kids' financial pessimism 28:40 How Joe helped his kids find relatable money role models 33:40 Millennials faced similar fears post-Great Recession 37:20 Today's expanded opportunities vs previous generations 43:20 Andrew's wake-up call at oil refinery job 49:20 Chris's daughter earning $35/hour on DoorDash 52:00 Finding meaning beyond retirement numbers For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode557 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    52 min

  6. 8 NOV

    Q&A: When a Million Dollars Feels Like a Burden

    #556: An anonymous caller was raised to work hard, live below his means, and save. He feels undeserving of his recent $1,000,000 inheritance and struggles to spend it. What should he do? Jack bought a house with a seven-year adjustable-rate mortgage. He’s confused about when and how he should refinance out of it. What should he do? Jack is also wondering how to do the breakeven calculation between contributing to a Traditional IRA with upfront income tax savings versus a Roth IRA with deferred savings on investment gains. Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode. Enjoy! P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode556 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    1h 9m

  7. 5 NOV

    MadFientist: The Hardest Part of Early Retirement Wasn't the Money

    #555: Brandon Ganch (known online as MadFientist) joins us from Scotland to share how his life has transformed since retiring in 2016 at age 34. “I thought retirement was an age, not a function,” he said. “And when I realized it was just a math function, it changed my entire life.” Eight years into retirement, Brandon talks about how his spending and lifestyle have evolved. While his investment portfolio has grown "exponentially," he's had to push himself to spend more money. He and his wife have doubled their spending in the last three years, yet still haven't reached the 4 percent withdrawal rate that's common in early retirement. Having two young kids (a two-year-old son and one-month-old daughter) has changed their spending patterns. Restaurant bills and craft beer costs have dropped significantly, while they've invested in a house — their third, but the first one Brandon says he actually enjoys owning since he's no longer "hyper-frugal." Brandon shares his few regrets from his journey to financial independence, mainly missing friends' bachelor parties in his twenties because he didn't want to pay for two transatlantic flights in one month. The book "Die with Zero" has shifted his perspective on spending, making him realize there are "seasons in life" for certain experiences. Brandon suggests trying to live your "post-FI life" before actually reaching financial independence. By traveling for three months straight, he learned that constant travel wasn't actually what he wanted. He emphasizes that financial independence isn't just about early retirement — it's about having choices and power in your career. You can find Brandon at madfientist.com or listen to his music at madfientist.com/album. A Sampling of MadFientist Articles: Retirement withdrawal strategies: https://www.madfientist.com/discretionary-withdrawal-strategy/ Baseline portfolio vs. optimized portfolio: https://www.madfientist.com/guinea-pig-experiment/ FI spreadsheets: https://www.madfientist.com/financial-independence-spreadsheet/ FI laboratory: https://www.madfientist.com/resources/ How to use an HSA as a Super IRA: https://www.madfientist.com/ultimate-retirement-account/ How to Stack Tax Benefits: https://www.madfientist.com/stack-tax-benefits/ And of course, his passion project in retirement — the album: https://www.madfientist.com/album/ Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 0:00 - Paula opens with a Guy Fawkes Day reference and historical background 2:06 - Brandon Ganch (MadFientist) introduces himself as having retired in 2016 at age 34 4:09 - Brandon explains how HR discovering his Scotland location led to his early retirement 7:01 - Discusses the "power of quitting" and how having FI helped him negotiate better work terms 11:26 - Explains how spending habits changed post-retirement, especially around house ownership 13:37 - Talks about having kids and how that decreased spending on travel, restaurants and beer 19:27 - Shares his only regrets about the FIRE journey, including missing friends' bachelor parties 26:58 - Discusses the "Die with Zero" book and its impact on his financial philosophy 33:32 - Explains why optimization and hyper-frugality are no longer priorities in his life 40:06 - Updates on his music passion project and performing live with his brother 44:21 - Advises people to start living their post-FI life before reaching financial independence 48:36 - Explains why FI might not be for everyone but financial security matters for all 51:28 - Shares thoughts on AI's impact on software development jobs and being glad he's already FI For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode555 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    1h 3m

  8. 1 NOV

    The Most Expensive Election Trade Ever Made (A Cautionary Tale)

    #554: The U.S. jobs market hit a surprising speed bump in October, adding just 12,000 new jobs — way below the expected 100,000.  A mix of natural disasters and labor unrest explains the slump. Recent hurricanes in the Southeast wiped out somewhere between 40,000 to 70,000 jobs, while strikes at Boeing and other companies added to the slowdown. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve looks ready to cut interest rates next week by 0.25 percent. Meanwhile, gold is having its biggest moment since 1979, but not for reasons you might expect. Central banks, especially in China and India, are loading up on physical gold like never before. Poland's central bank has grabbed 167 tons of gold and wants to keep 20 percent of its reserves in gold — a move that hints at banks preparing for possible global shake-ups. Remember when I-Bonds were the hot ticket in 2022, paying out 9.6 percent? Those glory days are gone. The new rate has dropped to 3.1 percent, making your standard high-yield savings account look pretty good in comparison. In the stock market, it's all about the "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. These tech giants account for 62 percent of all S&P 500 gains over the past year. The other 493 companies aren't doing too shabby either, with profits expected to grow 13 percent next year. As for the upcoming election, both presidential candidates' economic plans would push the federal deficit higher. The Wharton School of Business says Trump's proposals would add $5.8 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, while Harris's would add $1.2 trillion. There's also talk about tariffs that could spark inflation and maybe even kick off a global trade war. Here's the kicker: during the 2016 election, a 24-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried correctly predicted the outcome before anyone else and made $300 million in a single night trading on that information. But by morning, the markets had swung so wildly that he'd lost $600 million.  The lesson? Even if you guess the election right, predicting how markets will react is a whole different ball game — one that you should avoid. Think long-term, buy-and-hold.  Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 3:15 October jobs report falls short: only 12,000 new jobs added 7:45 Gold prices surge to 45-year high 11:30 Central banks lead global gold buying spree 16:20 The end of the gold standard 20:45 I-Bond rates plummet from 9.6 to 3.1 percent 24:03 The Magnificent 7 create most S&P 500 gains 28:58 US deficit hits 6 percent, tops G7 countries 33:31 Inflation risks and tariff concerns ahead of election 40:10 Why you shouldn't trade the upcoming election Resources Mentioned Wharton’s Trump Campaign Economic Analysis: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/trump-campaign-policy-proposals-2024 Wharton’s Harris Campaign Economic Analysis: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/harris-campaign-policy-proposals-2024 The Economist, Editorial Board Endorsement: https://www.economist.com/in-brief/2024/10/31/why-the-economist-endorses-kamala-harris Bloomberg Endorsement: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-31/michael-bloomberg-why-i-m-voting-for-kamala-harris The Financial Times endorsement, which is unfortunately behind a paywall: https://www.ft.com/content/3db1db35-f536-4efc-b463-a1fc98a785b0  For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode554 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    51 min
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You can afford anything, but not everything. We make daily decisions about how to spend money, time, energy, focus and attention – and ultimately, our life. How do we make smarter decisions? How do we think from first principles? On the surface, Afford Anything seems like a podcast about money and investing. But under the hood, this is a show about how to think critically, recognize our behavioral blind spots, and make smarter choices. We’re into the psychology of money, and we love metacognition: thinking about how to think. In some episodes, we interview world-class experts: professors, researchers, scientists, authors. In other episodes, we answer your questions, talking through decision-making frameworks and mental models. Want to learn more? Download our free book, Escape, at http://affordanything.com/escape. Hosted by Paula Pant.

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