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-4 J

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace reflecting differences in macro fundamentals. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

-4 j

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24 min
9 DÉC.

Positioning Takes a Tiny Hit, Mixed Shifts in Key Consensus Macro Assumptions

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.

9 déc.

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6 min
4 DÉC.

Early Thoughts on the 2025 S&P 500 Sector Outlook

Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view. The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weight.

4 déc.

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6 min
-1 J

2025 Outlook: Europe’s economies brace for more political upheaval

Recession looks avoidable for Europe in 2025, but significant growth is still elusive. This episode of RBC Capital Market’s Strategic Alternatives considers the prospects, weighing political volatility in the region, central banks’ rate-cutting cycles, and potential U.S. interventions. What does all this mean for investors? Janet Wilkinson, Head of Fixed Income & Currencies Flow Sales, EMEA, is joined by Peter Schaffrik, Chief European Macro Strategist, and Cathal Kennedy, Senior U.K. Economist.

-1 j

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21 min
10 DÉC.

Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

2025 will see the U.S. economy diverge even further from other developed nations, in ways that begin to look structural rather than cyclical. That’s one of the predictions from RBC Capital Markets’ Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Mike Reid in their outlook for the next year. They join Vito Sperduto, Head of RBC Capital Markets U.S. to weigh the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies – and the tough line the Fed will need to tread in 2025.

10 déc.

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33 min
3 DÉC.

Different Trajectories

We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where economies are headed. In Canada, soft growth data has solidified our expectation for a second consecutive 50bp cut despite firmer inflation data last month, while US economic exceptionalism has markets pricing a material possibility of a skip on the 18th. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is debating between 25bp and 50bp, while the BoE looks set to pass at its final meeting of 2024. Meanwhile, FX and equity markets have been impacted by the central bank pricing volatility, incoming Trump administration and the threat of US tariffs. Participants: Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

3 déc.

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28 min
6 DÉC.

2025 Global M&A Outlook: Confidence meets caution

Lighter regulation under the next U.S. administration may make dealmaking simpler, at least in some sectors, but how will M&A be affected by Trump’s other plans? In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Ben Mandell, Global Head of M&A, is joined by RBC Capital Markets’ M&A experts from across the globe to analyze how the change of regime and other factors will influence transactions in 2025.

6 déc.

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33 min
26 NOV.

Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call. The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 12 month view but also makes the case for a near-term pullback. Third, we don’t see much room for further P/E expansion but our valuation work still helps us see how stocks can move higher next year. Fourth, US equities may soon lose their appeal relative to bonds. Fifth, the US economy is at an important crossroad from a stock market perspective. And sixth, the political backdrop presents both tailwinds and possible headwinds for stocks.

26 nov.

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11 min
9 DÉC.

Productivity and affordability: Canada’s top challenges in 2025

Canada enters 2025 facing huge uncertainties at home and abroad. But one thing seems clear: it is set on a very different path to its powerful neighbor in terms of both economic growth potential and monetary policy. In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Lindsay Patrick, Head of Strategy, Marketing and Sustainability is joined by RBC Chief Economist Frances Donald to analyze why Canada and the U.S. are diverging so starkly and to assess Canada’s efforts to address its housing and affordability crises in the year ahead.

9 déc.

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34 min
15 NOV.

2025 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates

For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific macroeconomic factors have heavily influenced allocation strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, returns in global fixed income will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures. Macro nuances are expected to continue playing a critical role in cross country performance. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

15 nov.

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36 min

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Meilleures émissions

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

Positioning Takes a Tiny Hit, Mixed Shifts in Key Consensus Macro Assumptions

Early Thoughts on the 2025 S&P 500 Sector Outlook

2025 Outlook: Europe’s economies brace for more political upheaval

Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

Different Trajectories

2025 Global M&A Outlook: Confidence meets caution

Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025

Productivity and affordability: Canada’s top challenges in 2025

2025 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates

À propos

RBC Capital Markets

Meilleures émissions

Meilleurs épisodes

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

Positioning Takes a Tiny Hit, Mixed Shifts in Key Consensus Macro Assumptions

Early Thoughts on the 2025 S&P 500 Sector Outlook

2025 Outlook: Europe’s economies brace for more political upheaval

Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

Different Trajectories

2025 Global M&A Outlook: Confidence meets caution

Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025

Productivity and affordability: Canada’s top challenges in 2025

2025 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates

À propos