56 min
#190 - Never Short a Dull Market, Ad Supported Netflix and The Space X Launch Success. Reformed Millennials - Learn Earn and Invest
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- Business
Listen in podcast app
* Market update
* Space X Launch
* Netflix earnings
* HBO Max Makes a Branding Mistake
* AI Breakthroughs Of The Week
* Recommendations and Predictions
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
📈📊Market Update💵📉
If you missed Friday's market action, here is a useful summary by CNBC.
US equities ended little changed on Friday after a raft of corporate earnings results. Large caps and small caps closed slightly higher: S&P 500 (+0.09%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.10%).
Consumer discretionary (+1.20%) and consumer staples (+0.75%) bested the broader market indices, while materials (-0.91%) and energy (-0.59%) lagged. Procter & Gamble (+3.46%) and Disney (+1.53%) led the Dow (+0.07%) higher; Intel (-1.81%) and Dow Inc (-1.49%) were the index's worst performers.
The Nasdaq gained 0.11%, while tech lost 0.32%. The "FAAMG" stocks mostly fell: Meta (-0.08%), Amazon (+3.03%), Apple (-0.98%), Microsoft (-0.12%), Alphabet (+0.01%).
The VIX slipped 2.33% to 16.77. The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased to 3.771% and 3.568% respectively, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.179%.
Most of US Big Tech reports calendar Q1 earnings this week (GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN), with Apple scheduled to release next week.
With these stocks all outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin YTD, the expectations bar is set quite high for their earnings. Not only must these companies beat, but they must also guide to a re-acceleration of EPS growth in Q2 2023 and beyond. That’s what the Street is looking for and is the key catalyst behind this group’s remarkable resurgence in 2023.
Big Tech Earnings Expectations from Data Trek: everything below
Most of US Big Tech reports earnings this week, so for Disruption today we have a summary of what the Street is expecting from each name. We will also discuss Apple’s expected results, due out on May 4th. The discussion format for each company is the same:
* Year to date price returns (every one of these names has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin thus far in 2023).
* Calendar Q1 expected EPS and revenue growth.
* The company’s recent track record for beating/missing analysts’ EPS estimates.
* Current revenue and EPS growth expectations for Q2 2023.
Alphabet/Google, +19.5 percent YTD (reports Tuesday):
* Expected EPS: $1.07/share, down 13.0 percent from last year.
* Expected Revenues: $68.9 billion, up 1.3 percent from last year.
* Alphabet has missed earnings expectations in every quarter over the last year.
* Analysts expect GOOG to return to earnings growth in Q2 (up 5.0 percent year over year) on modestly accelerating revenue growth (+3.7 percent) versus Q1.
Comment: GOOG is the only name on today’s list that has missed estimates in every one of the last 4 quarters, so one would think numbers are finally set low enough that the company might actually beat. It needs to … The Street is looking for a resumption of year over year EPS growth in Q2 (the current quarter). Away from the nitty gritty of quarterly numbers, analysts and investors will likely want to know how Generative AI products might affect the company’s current dominance in search.
Microsoft, +19.2 percent YTD (also reports Tuesday):
* Expected EPS: $2.23/share, essentially unchanged from last year’s $2.22/share.
* Expected Revenues: $51.0 billion, up 3.4 percent from last year.
* Microsoft has beaten earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but only by 1-2 percent. Its one miss (calendar Q2 2022) was also small (3 percent).
* Analysts expect MSFT’s year over year earnings growth to reaccelerate in calendar Q2, to 10.3 percent.
Comment: The Street expects MSFT to go from zero year over year EPS growth in Q1 to 10 percent in Q2, the largest sequential increase among the names we are reviewing. It’s probably too early for its integration of ChatGPT to have a meaningful economic impact, so investors will want to understand the bridge between a flat calendar Q1 to a double-di
Listen in podcast app
* Market update
* Space X Launch
* Netflix earnings
* HBO Max Makes a Branding Mistake
* AI Breakthroughs Of The Week
* Recommendations and Predictions
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
📈📊Market Update💵📉
If you missed Friday's market action, here is a useful summary by CNBC.
US equities ended little changed on Friday after a raft of corporate earnings results. Large caps and small caps closed slightly higher: S&P 500 (+0.09%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.10%).
Consumer discretionary (+1.20%) and consumer staples (+0.75%) bested the broader market indices, while materials (-0.91%) and energy (-0.59%) lagged. Procter & Gamble (+3.46%) and Disney (+1.53%) led the Dow (+0.07%) higher; Intel (-1.81%) and Dow Inc (-1.49%) were the index's worst performers.
The Nasdaq gained 0.11%, while tech lost 0.32%. The "FAAMG" stocks mostly fell: Meta (-0.08%), Amazon (+3.03%), Apple (-0.98%), Microsoft (-0.12%), Alphabet (+0.01%).
The VIX slipped 2.33% to 16.77. The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased to 3.771% and 3.568% respectively, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.179%.
Most of US Big Tech reports calendar Q1 earnings this week (GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN), with Apple scheduled to release next week.
With these stocks all outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin YTD, the expectations bar is set quite high for their earnings. Not only must these companies beat, but they must also guide to a re-acceleration of EPS growth in Q2 2023 and beyond. That’s what the Street is looking for and is the key catalyst behind this group’s remarkable resurgence in 2023.
Big Tech Earnings Expectations from Data Trek: everything below
Most of US Big Tech reports earnings this week, so for Disruption today we have a summary of what the Street is expecting from each name. We will also discuss Apple’s expected results, due out on May 4th. The discussion format for each company is the same:
* Year to date price returns (every one of these names has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin thus far in 2023).
* Calendar Q1 expected EPS and revenue growth.
* The company’s recent track record for beating/missing analysts’ EPS estimates.
* Current revenue and EPS growth expectations for Q2 2023.
Alphabet/Google, +19.5 percent YTD (reports Tuesday):
* Expected EPS: $1.07/share, down 13.0 percent from last year.
* Expected Revenues: $68.9 billion, up 1.3 percent from last year.
* Alphabet has missed earnings expectations in every quarter over the last year.
* Analysts expect GOOG to return to earnings growth in Q2 (up 5.0 percent year over year) on modestly accelerating revenue growth (+3.7 percent) versus Q1.
Comment: GOOG is the only name on today’s list that has missed estimates in every one of the last 4 quarters, so one would think numbers are finally set low enough that the company might actually beat. It needs to … The Street is looking for a resumption of year over year EPS growth in Q2 (the current quarter). Away from the nitty gritty of quarterly numbers, analysts and investors will likely want to know how Generative AI products might affect the company’s current dominance in search.
Microsoft, +19.2 percent YTD (also reports Tuesday):
* Expected EPS: $2.23/share, essentially unchanged from last year’s $2.22/share.
* Expected Revenues: $51.0 billion, up 3.4 percent from last year.
* Microsoft has beaten earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but only by 1-2 percent. Its one miss (calendar Q2 2022) was also small (3 percent).
* Analysts expect MSFT’s year over year earnings growth to reaccelerate in calendar Q2, to 10.3 percent.
Comment: The Street expects MSFT to go from zero year over year EPS growth in Q1 to 10 percent in Q2, the largest sequential increase among the names we are reviewing. It’s probably too early for its integration of ChatGPT to have a meaningful economic impact, so investors will want to understand the bridge between a flat calendar Q1 to a double-di
56 min
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