Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession.

Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market.

But is that likely to remain the case going forward?

And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices?

Or none of these?

To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy.

Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#unemployment #employment #recession

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In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.

As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?

Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow?

And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?

To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert Doomberg.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#oil #nuclearenergy #naturalgas

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Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in.

If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table.

But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters.

We discuss these odds, as well as the weakening labor market outlook, the GameStop circus show, concerns about AI demand, and Lance's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#gamestop #employment #inflation

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According to Truflation, the US dollar has lost nearly 25% of its purchasing power since January of 2020.

Many everyday Americans struggling to pay their monthly bills may argue that's an understatement.

What the US dollar does, vs real things as well as vs other national currencies, has very real implications -- economically, financially & geopolitically -- for everyone watching this video, regardless of where you live.

For a better sense of what it's likely to do from here, we're fortunate to speak today with Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital, and developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#dollar #currency #inflation

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As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago.

Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months.

So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year.

Will it?

To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors.

Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bearmarket #recession #inflation

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Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory.

Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era

But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs.

In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?"

To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #inflation #recession

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