Booming Local Retail Sales and RIP Tito Mboweni (#607)

Strong Retail Sales and the Two-Pot System:

• Retail sales show a positive trend, rising 3.2% in August, exceeding expectations of 2.1%.
• The Two-Pot System has already released R20 billion in six weeks, with the money used mainly for paying down debt, saving, and spending.
• Retail sales recovery, though from a low base, is a strong indicator of improved consumer health due to factors like slightly lower interest rates and inflation.

South African retail sales | YonY

Tribute to Tito Mboweni:

• Simon reflects on the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor.
• Mboweni’s contributions include institutionalising the Reserve Bank’s MPC meetings and implementing key labor reforms during his tenure as Labor Minister.
• His lasting impact on the country’s economy and financial sectors was highlighted, along with his personality as a Twitter chef and self-styled "Duke of Magoebaskloof."

Johnson & Johnson – A Smooth Dividend Play:

• Simon shares his reasons for holding Johnson & Johnson: consistent dividend growth (around 3% yield) and a steady 8% annual share price growth in US dollars.
• Despite some issues, the company offers reliable long-term returns in a competitive health and consumer space.

Johnson & Johnson quarterly dividend payments

Bytes Technology Group and Investment Opportunity:

• Bytes operates in the UK, offering hardware, software, and services. The stock showed mixed market reactions but has strong support around certain levels.
• With a forward P/E of 20 and a dividend yield of 3.6%, Simon sees it as an interesting opportunity for long-term investors in the tech space.

Quilter Trading Update:

• Quilter’s strong Q3 results follow a good first half of the year, with significant inflows supporting future earnings.
• A solid financial services player with a dividend yield near 4% and a forward P/E of 15, Quilter is performing well and trading at all-time highs since its 2018 listing.

Sasol – A Weak Chart:

• Simon discusses Sasol’s ongoing struggles, with a weak chart suggesting possible further declines.
• Investors should wait for technical indicators before making any moves.

Brent Oil Price and Rand Volatility:

• Brent crude oil hit highs recently but is now retreating to $70 per barrel, with potential for further declines due to global oversupply.
• The rand, affected by dollar strength, is volatile but could see a return to 16.80 against the dollar in the coming months.

Chapters

00:00 Retail Sales Recovery and Economic Outlook 04:29 Tribute to Tito Mboweni 08:32 Johnson & Johnson: A Steady Investment 09:52 Bytes Technology Group: Market Reactions 12:32 Quilter's Strong Performance 14:29 Cecil's Ongoing Struggles 15:56 Brent Oil Prices and Global Economy 17:48 Volatility of the Rand and Market Predictions

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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