The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Dominic Frisby
The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas and more. www.theflyingfrisby.com

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    When Hindsight Meets Foresight - How Did My Crystal Ball Fare?

    Every January, I like to make some predictions about the year ahead. Then, in my final post of the year, which this will probably be, I go back and review them. That’s what we are doing today. Before I begin, just a couple of things: * In case you missed it, check out Friday’s piece on North American tax loss selling. It has 9 ideas for short-term trades, which could come good by February. * And there is now a video version of "The Chainsaw and the Swamp: A Tale of Two Economies" for your Sunday morning viewing pleasure. Right. Here we go … Predictions are funny things. The more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining the copy, but the less likely it is to actually happen. What is more important: getting lots of eyeballs or being right? I like this exercise because it demonstrates just how much perspective can change over time. While we can change strategy as events develop, what I wrote a year ago does not, so when you look back at stuff you got wrong, you can look foolish, even if you changed tack in real time. On the other hand, if you got stuff right, people go - well that was obvious. So the rules of my little game are this: I score two points for a direct hit, one for a good call, zero for a miss, and minus one for a "David Lammy on Mastermind" fail. I made 15 predictions. Here they are: 1. The Great Decline goes on. I was pleased with this one, even if it was rather negative. “Everywhere the state’s tentacles reach remains a drain on productivity. Our once-great institutions continue to fall apart, like zombie meth addicts, stumbling towards dysfunction... The ordinary worker desperately trying to improve his lot is bled dry by taxes, inflation, housing costs, and the voracious state monster. Fiat loses yet more of its purchasing power. The South Africanisation of everything continues.” Gosh, it’s depressing and negative. Things may be changing on the other side of the pond, but they are not in Europe. Two points. 2. Gold breaks out to new highs and goes to $2,400. And some. $2,790 was the high. We’re now at $2,620. Two points. 3. Bitcoin goes to new highs as well. Yup. We are at $98,000 as I write. $108,000 was the high. Two points. 4. For reasons I don’t understand, ethereum outperforms bitcoin. Ethereum always seems to move later in the cycle and by more, hence the prediction. But in 2024 bitcoin outperformed. Zero points. 5. The US dollar trends sideways. It didn’t. The US Dollar Index began the year at 100 and ended about 8% higher around 108. Another big fat zero. 6. Sterling has problems. Cable began the year at around $1.27 and it’s now at $1.25, having been as high as $1.34. So it’s down a bit. But the eight-year cycle low that I am looking for has not materialized. I’m sure it’s coming, but zero points. 7. The Tories are eviscerated. Pleased with this one. They had their chance and they blew it. Come the General Election this year, the voters are unforgiving. … The SNP is similarly annihilated. The shortcomings of our political system are there for all to see. But nothing that needs to change does. Roughly 80% of the country did not vote Labour, yet they got 63% of the seats. Incredible. And they call it democracy. Two points. 8. Uranium to hit $125/lb. Nope. The highest it got was $105/lb, and that was in January. It spent the rest of the year declining; it's now at $73. Minus one. Totally wrong. 9. Fast and processed food companies have problems. I think I am early to this. Let’s see what RFK does. But, by way of proxy, McDonald's is flat on the year; Burger King (Restaurant Brands International) is down 14%; KFC is off about 10%. Good call. Two points. Seed oils are losing. 10. Good year for the Japanese yen. It has to go up sometime right? It’s so cheap. Nope. It went down. Minus one. 11. The S&P500 has a good year. I’ll say. It’s up 25%. Way above expectation. Two points. 12. Small caps outperform. Apart from a brief spell in summer, they didn’t. It feels like they are starting to, but nope. Zero points. 13. UK house prices. Atrophy and stagnation, but no meltdown That feels about right. About 50% of stuff on the market isn’t selling, apparently. I’m not surprised; the cost of moving is so high. Two points. 14. Silver. Can it stage a meaningful rally above $30? Nope, I said. It went to $34 in October. Now it’s $29. Was that rally meaningful? Well, it did better than I thought it would. Zero points. 15. Liverpool win the league; Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton are relegated. Got the losers right but not the winners. 1 point. All in all, not a great showing. 13 points. Oddly enough, whenever I score low on the predictions, I have a much better year in the portfolio. That was the case this year, where we have had some real winners in the Flying Frisby: bitcoin and MicroStrategy, obviously, but also Lightbridge and Novavax too. Meanwhile, the low-risk Dolce Far Niente portfolio is rocking it. Happy Christmas everyone. Thank you for being a subscriber. And why not gift someone a subscription this Christmas? I’ll have some predictions for 2025 early in the new year. Until next time. Dominic PS Don’t forget: * In case you missed it, Friday’s piece on North American tax loss selling has 9 ideas for short-term trades, which could come good by February. * Plus the video version of "The Chainsaw and the Swamp: A Tale of Two Economies" for your Sunday morning viewing pleasure. Become enlightened. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

    6 min
  2. 11 DEC

    The Chainsaw and the Swamp: A Tale of Two Economies

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us … Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, 1859 Here is the world I think we are heading into over the next couple of years. On one side of the Atlantic, we have Argentina and its new president, Javier Milei, taking a chainsaw to the state in every conceivable way. I was there last month and I fell head over heels in love with the place. Every day it seems another state body is having its budget cut. It’s like everything I argued for all those years ago in Life After the State - Why We Don’t Need Government is suddenly happening in the real world, and it is wonderful. The result of all this is an economic boom that is starting to take everyone’s breath away – even free market acolytes are surprised. You must invest in Argentina. You must have a position. What is happening there is equivalent to Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism, China at the turn of the 21st century, or the UK and US at the beginning of the Reagan-Thatcher era. With libertarianism being the dominant belief system of the Internet, and Milei, the poster boy for anarcho-capitalism, an internet sensation, you can rest assured that Argentina’s success story is not going to be kept a secret. The Internet is going to let everyone know about it. Then to the north, we have the USA. Who was the first foreign leader to be invited to meet President-elect Donald Trump? You betcha. It was Javier Milei. That tells us where things are going. We have passionate libertarians Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy taking the knife to government and the deep state – I cannot emphasise enough how gripping a belief system libertarianism is once it takes hold - look what it’s done to me - and it has clearly taken hold of these two. We also have a Trump administration that is much more organised and wiser than the previous incarnation, as well as more state shrinking. It knows who its enemies are and it seems ready for them. The US may be “minarchist-light” compared to Argentina, but even so, an economic boom is coming to this most entrepreneurial of countries. A lot of people are going make a lot of money. So you must also have a position in the US. It is already the world’s biggest economy. How much is it going to grow with so many bureaucratic barriers of state removed? The Stagnant Side of the Street Then we turn to the other side of the Atlantic. “The stagnant side of the street” to misquote the song. Here in the UK, we have gone the other way. We are increasing taxes. We are increasing state spending. We are growing government, and, in doing so, creating more barriers to innovation, invention, and entrepreneurship. Most of Western Europe is the same. These are countries run by blobs, by regulators and planners for regulators and planners, by technocrats who know better than you. Here’s an example of the government helping. On 6 October 2020, when the FCA announced it was clamping down, bitcoin was $10,000. Today it's $97,500. I make that $87,500 per coin of gain that the UK citizen has been protected from. Great job guys. The UK was once at the vanguard of this breakthrough technology. Satoshi used English spelling, he quoted the Times. He may well have been British. Now we are bringing up the rear. It is just so much harder and more expensive to do anything entrepreneurial in the UK, whether it’s setting up a business in the first place, hiring, the taxes you have to pay, the cost of regulation and compliance, or the exorbitant cost of housing and property, which drains capital that could be better invested elsewhere. Buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? I urge you to. My recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently in the Gulf trying, as he says, to secure investment for the UK. “This government will build on partnerships that drive our mission to kickstart economic growth and put money back in working people's pockets,” he said yesterday. It’s obvious that he thinks economic growth comes from government rather than the private sector. He actually thinks government spending is going to help. He does not realize because spending inevitably leads to higher taxes, and taxes stifle growth. I bet if you listed ten businesses and said which of these are wealth-creating and which are just wealth-extracting, he would not know the difference: it is not a thought process his mind would ever entertain. Yet the difference between the two is everything. Subsidised green energy is wealth extracting, compliance is wealth extracting, manufacturing (as long as it’s not wind farms) and tech are mostly wealth creating. One builds wealth that did not previously exist - everybody wins - making stuff, growing stuff - the other is zero sum: it extracts wealth that already exists and sends it somewhere else - only the extractor and the recipient win. The guy who built the wealth in the first place loses. The most basic rule of taxation – you really should read Daylight Robbery – is that higher taxes and higher tax rates do not lead to greater government revenue. This administration does not get that most basic concept, which has existed for as long as there have been taxes (ie all of civilization). How can they be so stupid I’ve no idea, but they lead us. To invest in the UK is to invest in stagnation and regulation. That is not proper investment or wealth creation. The rest of Western Europe is no better. In addition, we are experiencing colossal levels of discontent, unprecedented migration, two-tiered justice, two-tiered welfare, rising crime, the disappearance of previously high-trust societies, and rising social tension. But thanks to the Internet, the stupidities of UK and European policies will continue to be laid bare to all. No amount of censorship is going to hide it. In any case, X has already killed censorship. Other platforms must now stop censoring, if they want to stay relevant. On the Internet people gravitate where speech is free-est. Meanwhile, such is the nature of memes, people are going to relentlessly take the piss, especially from the other side of the pond. Comedy is a powerful tool. Day after day, the meme-makers, led by Elon Musk himself, are going to expose Keir Starmer and his deluded team, never mind the EU and other technocrats, for the fools they are. The exposure the Internet brings will cause this technocratic left to backpedal a little – Starmer, as we saw from his 19th relaunch speech last week, has already started – though it will not be anywhere near enough. We need our own Javier Milei. But it is all is only going to exacerbate the current trend: long America, short the UK and Europe. So What To Do Now? I ran into one of the UK’s most successful investors at a party last week. He told me he has moved everything he can out of sterling and out of the UK.

    9 min
  3. 8 DEC

    The Orwellian Nightmare of Central Bank Digital Currencies - And Why It Won't Happen

    If you are looking for some entertaining Christmas presents, we have some celebratory “One of the 17 Million” Brexit mugs, my new album and other goodies for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. Something positive for you this Sunday morning - and why we should be grateful for government incompetence The idea of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), money that governments and their planners will be able to programme, rightly fills many of us with an Orwellian sense of dread. “Did you not have the vaccine? Oh, well then you don’t qualify for the next payment.” “Have you been saying wrong things on social media? Then you don’t get the good loan rates.” “We suspect that you might not have paid the right rate of tax, therefore we are deducting what we think you owe and it’s up to you to prove otherwise. You want the money back? Please hold …. Your call is important to us.” CBDCs allow for almost unimaginable interference in our lives, intrusions on our privacy and liberty, never mind meddling in the economy. Chinese social credit scores would be just the start of it. When you combine the instincts of, say, the current Labour administration to intervene, together with its incompetence, the ramifications are truly horrifying. Some say CBDCs are inevitable. Technology is destiny and all that. I’m a bit more optimistic. Hete’s why. CBDCs have been piloted in numerous countries and fully implemented in: * The Bahamas - the "Sand Dollar" * Nigeria - the "eNaira" * Jamaica - "JAM-DEX" * The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Nowhere has got them to work. The Bahamas is generally touted as the CBDC success story. My buddy, Dave Skarica, who lives there says, “LOL. I have never seen one person use it.” Why have they failed? People don’t use them. When they do use them, they don’t work. People prefer the legacy systems they know. CBDCs are yet another government IT project that is doomed to fail. If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. You might say the internet was a government IT project. It was . The U.S. government - via ARPA and later DARPA - provided crucial funding that led to the development of key protocols like TCP/IP. But the Internet succeeded because of the immense infrastructure that millions of people, mostly working in their own self-interest, since built over many decades on top of it. Our modern system of debt-based fiat money should long since have imploded under the weight of all the abuse and debasement successive governments have heaped upon it. But it has survived, indeed thrived as a medium of exchange, albeit a terrible store of wealth, because of the incredible fintech architecture that has been built on top of it, again by millions of people over many decades mostly acting in their own self-interest. That architecture is probably what has saved the system. Fiat money is just promissory - worse than that it is a promise of something that isn’t even there - but the incredible advances in communication technology that we have seen in the last 150 years - telecommunications, digital technology and all the rest of it - have all enabled the sending and recording of those promises. The fortunes that have been invested have all helped the system evolve and indeed preserved it. Fiat money worked as countries gradually abandoned gold standards over the course of the 20th century because they were the only currencies citizens knew. The payment and saving infrastructure was already built and normalised. The coins and notes and cheques and bank accounts all functioned perfectly well, and there were no alternatives. The removal of the gold backing did not really impact the overall architecture. Government currencies worked in the first place because they were based on gold and silver, which everybody already used and instinctively knew had value. When they weren’t debasing their money, rulers, or those working for them, often actually improved the system: coinage, for example, certified the amount of precious metal in a coin and the ruler’s stamp legitimised it. Money was based on something people already knew and used and understood. Not so CBDCs. They have no existing infrastructure around them, nor is their use normal. Governments will not be able to design anything decent. They will need the private sector to do that, and this will take many years, perhaps decades before it gets as good as the infrastructure around existing payment systems. It would also take many years and lots of nudges for people to change habits The private sector is not going to invest the required amount of money in payment systems if people are not going to use it, so you will end up with a situation, a bit like green energy, where governments will have to spend billions subsidising it in order to make it work, but the actual energy you get is not as good as that provided by fossil fuels: unreliable, more expensive and more damaging to the environment. There will not be the same green arguments - 10 years to save the planet and all that - to justify the spending. The scope for corruption and crony capitalism will be enormous. Again. You really should subscribe. None of this will stop governments trying it, of course. Citizens might slowly start to use the system, particularly if they get free handouts, but it will be a long time before CBDCs reach a level where they compete with existing payment systems. At this point fiat money as we now know it probably won’t exist anyway. We tend to forget, but most nations as we currently know them are only about 200 years old. Many won’t exist in 50 or 100 years time. They’ll go bankrupt and break apart. What will happen to their money? There is the possibility of demanding that taxes are paid in CBDCs, I suppose, but again this opens up so much scope for outcry, waste and inefficiency, I just can’t see it working. People within the blob look at bitcoin and admire it and think they can copy it, but even bitcoin is what it is, not so much because of Satoshi Nakamoto’s genius invention, but because of the way hundreds of thousands of people in the free market embraced it and built on top of it. The reason they did was, again, self-interest: the value of bitcoin kept going up. Every bit of bitcoin fintech, every podcast, every tweet - every transaction. They all help the bitcoin price. It’s a colossal open-source contribution and movement. There is not the same incentive with CBDCs. Their value is never going to go up. Quite the opposite. Their value will fall as governments issue more and more of them. There is not the same incentive. To have any chance of working, CBDCs will require billions and billions of subsidy. Most governments do not have the resources. They are already bankrupt. They will struggle to justify the expense. Health or welfare or pensions or something will be deemed more important. Plus they will meet with huge resistance from the freedom-fighters and possibly even the media . None of this will stop them trying of course. But on this issue at least you can sleep soundly. CBDCs are one Orwellian nightmare that is not going to work. They will end up yet another failed government IT project. All ye from the future look back on this ‘ere prescient article and marvel at my foresight. If you are interested in this subject, take a look at my song, Programmable Money. Tell your friends about this amazing article. A reminder about those mugs, my album and other fun Christmas presents - all for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

    8 min
  4. 1 DEC

    Danes, Dykes, and Denarii: How Did The Pound Come About?

    “If once you have paid him the Dane-geld, You never get rid of the Dane.”Rudyard Kipling The winter of 406-407 was bitterly cold across Europe. The Rhine froze over, enabling hordes of Vandals, Alans - I love the fact that there was a tribe of Alans - and Suebi to make their way across the river, and into the Roman empire. They were violent with hunger, from the cold and greedy for what they had admired for so long on the other side. The response from Rome was slow, weak and inadequate. In Britain, Rome had already lost the north and west to warlords. The Roman armies in Britain, who, at best, had been paid with debased money, feared these Germanic tribes would cross into Britain next, so, led by Constantine III, who declared himself “Western Roman Emperor”, they made their way across the Channel and into Gaul, leaving ‘Britannia’ to fend for itself. We do not really know if it was Rome that gave up Britain, or Britain that gave up Rome, but, either way, the Dark Ages had well and truly begun. Gold , silver and bronze coins had been widespread under the Romans. They were used to pay taxes, and often re-minted to pay the army and the civil service. But after Constantine III’s departure, few coins were either minted or imported. Judging by the numerous hoards found from the period, many people buried their money - presumably to keep it safe in this unruly new environment of no military protection and merciless invasion from Angles, Saxons and other tribes from the continent. With the lack of new supply, existing coins were re-used. Clipping - cutting off the edges to steal metal - became widespread. The previously vigorous late Roman monetary system crumbled. It was not for another 200 years that minting properly started up again. The Anglo-Saxon invaders initially used gold more for adornment rather than as currency. Though there are examples of earlier Anglo-Saxon coins, King Eadbald of Kent was the first Anglo-Saxon whose name we actually know to mint coins. This was around 625AD - small, gold coins called scillingas (shillings), modelled on coins from France. Numismatists now call them thrymsas. As the century progressed, these coins grew increasingly pale, until there was very little gold in them at all. From about 675, small, thick, silver coins known as sceattas came into use in all the countries around the North Sea, and the gold shilling was superseded by the silver penning, or penny. As money, gold fell out of use almost altogether, though silver had something of a boom. It is thought the word ‘penny’, like the German ‘pfennig’ derives from the pans into which the molten metal for making them was poured. ‘Pfanne’ is the German for ‘pan’. Another theory is that it derives somehow from the denarius, as the symbol for the penny used to be the d. Likely a bit of both. The Mercian King Offa, he of dyke fame, who reigned for almost 40 years from 757 to 796, must be one of the greatest Anglo-Saxon kings, certainly the greatest of the 8th century. As well as his dyke, which protected his kingdom from Welsh invaders, and provided a barrier by which he could collect duties, he is credited for the widespread adoption of the silver penny and pound as a unit of account (though the pound was in use before his reign, he still gets the credit). His coins, with portraits and intricate designs, were as accomplished as anywhere in Europe at the time. His system, though probably imported from Charlemagne and the Franks, for reasons which will become clear, almost certainly dates back to the Romans. 12 silver pence equalled a scilling. 20 scillingas, or 240 pennies (12 x 20), equalled a pound weight of silver. Thus did the pound we still use today get its name - it was, simply, a pound weight of sterling silver. The Latin word for a "pound" is libra and the pound sign, £, is a stylized writing of the letter L. The d meanwhile used for pence comes from the Latin denarius. The roots of the British system of money are Roman. Offa’s system remained standard until at least the 16th century and, in many ways, until decimalization in 1971. You had to add up each unit of currency separately in this format: £3.9.4, which would be spoken "three pounds, nine shillings and four pence," or "three-pounds, nine and four." To add, you would calculate each unit separately, then convert pence to shillings, leaving leftover pence in the right column. Then convert the shillings to pounds (with leftover shillings in the middle column). And then add up the total pounds. It sounds complicated when you explain it, especially to those oriented in metric, but, like all traditional measures, it is quite intuitive in practice. On this note, have you seen my lecture about weights and measures? It’s superb! Offa’s systems were gradually consolidated over the subsequent centuries, especially as the kingdoms of Anglo-Saxon Britain began to merge. In the 860s, for example, the kingdoms of Mercia and Wessex formed an alliance by which coinage of a common design could circulate through both of their lands. The Viking invaders found coinage systems far more sophisticated than their own, and the Danegeld, the protection money with which they were bought off, was paid in silver pennies. I had always thought the “geld” in Danegeld meant “gold” but in fact it means yield, and the Viking invaders demanded this tribute wherever in Europe they ravaged. Buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. The Danegeld system was quite efficient - on both sides. For the invaders, they were often paid more than they could raise by looting, without having to fight. For the locals, the ravaging was avoided, although, as Rudyard Kipling noted in his poem on the subject, “if once you have paid him the Dane-geld, You never get rid of the Dane.” The Danegeld probably also motivated improvements to Anglo-Saxon coinage. To pay his own soldiers, to build forts and ships, and to pay Danegeld, Alfred the Great increased the number of mints in his realm to at least 8. His successor Athelstan had 30 and, to keep order, passed a law in 928 stating that England should have just one currency. Ever since, there has been just one. This was many centuries before standardisation in France, Germany, or Italy. When William, Duke of Normandy, invaded England in 1066, he succeeded where his Viking ancestors had failed for over 270 years, in that he managed to conquer all of England. It meant he took control of English coinage, which was far superior to that of his homeland. William’s coins, struck back in Normandy, are remarkable for how poor they are, compared to their English counterparts. He had at least seven types of English pennies struck with his name on, enabling him to achieve the rebrand that was so important to him. No longer was he William the B*****d, as he was then known. Now he was William the Conqueror. He let the world know through his coins. It worked: that is how we still know him today. It is a little ironic that the pound should be so named for its silver. Because, from the time of Isaac Newton and the founding of the Bank of England, silver had very little to do with the pound. Only gold. That story is told here: This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

    9 min
  5. 24 NOV

    The Shale Gas Revolution Is Dead ... Here's What To Do Now

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com It’s difficult to look beyond bitcoin and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) at the moment, the later in particular. Nobody expected this, not even Chairman Michael Saylor. The returns have been astonishing. A couple of readers have reported to me that the gains have been life-changing. Wow! What an email to receive. It’s easy to get hubristic when you have a big win. Instead, let us express gratitude for the good fortune that has smiled upon us. But look beyond we must, and so today I want to look at what I can only describe as a stealth bull market - natural gas. The price is creeping up, and few are talking about it. Natural gas is a bit like silver: if it can disappoint, it will. So we begin this piece with that reminder. Natural gas has broken the soul of many a wiser man than me. On the other hand, the next five years look pretty positive. It’s obvious that the world is going to go nuclear now, and that Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are going to provide the power AI so badly needs. However, it will be a good five years before they on stream, so what is going to provide the power in the interim? The answer is natural gas. There is a problem, however: Supply. America's Gas Wells Are Drying Up The North American Shale Gas Revolution dramatically changed the outlook for fossil fuels. Peak Oil was a huge theme leading up to the Global Financial Crisis, and then it disappeared, almost overnight. Between 2005 and 2020, US natural gas production grew by 90%, with shale accounting for the bulk of it. In 2005, shale gas made up about 5% of US natural gas production; by 2020, it was over 75%. By 2017, the US had become a net exporter, especially of more transportable liquefied natural gas (LNG). The price, meanwhile, plummeted. Good for consumers! Here’s the long-term chart so you can see those price declines since 2005. From almost $16 to $3.50 today (as low as $1.50 earlier this year, where it has formed an attractive double bottom - you know how I like those). Obviously, we in the UK and Europe pay way more for our natural gas than they do in North America. It’s so dumb; we have enough to supply ourselves in the UK. But we don’t because fracking is deemed environmentally damaging. So we import gas from abroad, which is produced by, you guessed it, fracking. I guess if it is fracked somewhere else, it’s less harmful. Not Then there are the transport costs and the environmental costs that come with that. Anyway … Spanning Ohio, New York, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Marcellus is the largest natural gas-producing field in the United States, contributing over 25% of production. In 2010, output was 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). By 2023, it exceeded 35 bcf/d, but production has been falling for almost a year now. We are currently at 26.7 bcf/d The next largest is Haynesville, in Louisiana, Texas, and parts of Arkansas. Extraction costs here are higher, and production stands at 16 bcf/d, but it is slowing here too, according to analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg. One of the few areas of growth is the Permian Basin, in Texas and New Mexico, currently around 23 bcf/d, but even there, growth is modest. Now, it might be that the reason for stagnating growth is low prices - they often are - and higher prices will result in increased production. They usually do. That is the way with commodities. But natural gas prices have already doubled this year, and they keep on creeping up. The other interpretation is that the North American Shale Gas Revolution has passed its peak. With America’s new president, you can expect plenty more investment in production than under the Democrats, and that should bring the price down, but the gas price has actually risen - from $2.70 to $3.50 - since the election. It might also be that Russian gas taps come back online to the EU sometime next year, which means America will lose its new market. But all of this conjecture is factored into the price. And that is rising. How to invest all this

    5 min
  6. 17 NOV

    The Changing Face of Britain

    Let’s start with some headline stats which emerged this week. * The number of migrants to Britain has doubled since Covid. * 747,000 “permanent-type” migrants moved to the UK last year, the OECD said, up from 488,400 in 2022. * This marks a 53% year-on-year rise. * The four countries seeing the biggest surge in migration are the UK, South Korea, Australia, and the United States. * Note: Three of those four countries are English-speaking. This is something I have long argued: the UK will inevitably see higher than average migration levels because people prefer to go where they can speak the language, and more people have some English than other languages. Meanwhile, our birth rate has dropped to 1.4 children per woman, the lowest on record. The net result is that the demographics of this country are changing dramatically and rapidly. Different people means a different culture. The demographics of primary schools Migration measures, particularly illegal migration, are not entirely accurate. If someone has entered the country covertly, for example, there's often no record. Nor are censuses entirely accurate. Some don’t fill the census in, many don’t fill it in accurately, especially if here illegally, if they don't understand what it is, or if someone is claiming the single person council tax discount. There is a lot of scope for double counting for people with multiple addresses - students and so on. However, pretty much everyone who has kids sends them to school. There is no hiding, no double counting and so on, so the numbers you get from the schools’ census are pretty accurate. White British now make up 61% of UK primary school kids. 37% are of minority ethnic background. The remaining 2% are unclassified. (In secondary schools, minority ethnic accounts for 36.6%). Minority ethnic includes Asian (13.4% of primary school kids), White non-British (8%), Black (6.5%), and Mixed (7.8%). Bear in mind that these figures are for the whole UK. This includes primary school kids in remote rural areas, where British ethnicity will likely comprise over 90%. White British was at 64.9% in 2020-21 and minority ethnic at 33.7%. The numbers are changing fast. From 65 to 61% in three years. Ten years ago it was 70%. This 61/37 ratio compares with 85/15 in 2002. Previously, I extrapolated that White British would be a minority in primary schools by 2035. But with the current trends, especially considering that migrants tend to have larger families than locals, white British could become a minority in primary schools as soon as 2030, or just after. The demography of primary schools will, within a generation, reflect the demography of the country. I doubt this is what the majority of British people want. But it's not a topic that's being discussed, let alone addressed, in the echelons of power. Instead, it's being brushed under the carpet. Well, it will soon be too late. This is an urgent and pressing issue. Without wishing to sensationalise, the future of the British people and their homeland really is at stake. Demography is destiny after all. You really should subscribe to the Flying Frisby. If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. More on this: This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

    5 min
  7. 13 NOV

    Bitcoin’s Looking Great. Gold Not So Much.

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com Today, we are going to look at gold, bitcoin, and our way of playing it, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which has now 10xd (!) since we first covered it last year. Amazing. Finally, there'll be a short update on gold miners. Remember them? Let’s start with gold. Gold - and most other metals - has been hit since the U.S. election last week. It’s down $200, or about 7%, with U.S. dollar strength being a big factor (the dollar has been storming higher since October). While I think this bull market might be punctured, as I put it last week, and that gold probably has a bit further to fall, I am not unduly worried. 2024 has hitherto been a great year for gold, and it remains an essential long-term core holding. It is an even more essential holding for UK investors. I think sterling has big problems ahead of it, and gold serves as your hedge against crap governments. If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. Labour or Tory - I’m no fan of either. They’re both as bad as each other, in my view. The less government there is, the better things run. But that's irrelevant idealism. Of greater concern here is reality: there has never been a Labour Government that did not devalue sterling. * Blair and Brown crashed sterling in 2007-8 (though until then their record was okay); * Under Wilson, Callaghan, and Healey, we ended up going to the IMF in 1976. Callaghan and Wilson also devalued in 1967. * Cripps and Attlee devalued in 1949. * Ramsay MacDonald’s National Government, which followed Labour from 1929-31, took us off the gold standard in 1931. Why should this Labour Government be any different? If anything, it is even less competent. Sterling devaluation is coming. How exactly might not yet be clear. I rather suspect it’ll be an attempt to make us competitive against an ultra-streamlined US, but that’s just a guess. You must own some gold (and some bitcoin) in such an environment: non-government money. Gold under Trump - What Gives? What’s coming?

    3 min
  8. 7 NOV

    Long America, Short the UK

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com I’m sending out today’s missive a day later than usual because I wanted to see the market reaction to the US election results and leave a little time to digest it all. Broadly speaking, I am happy with the result, and I believe the world will be a better place for it than the alternative. We’ll see less technocracy, less deep state , and less overseas intervention; more pro-energy, pro-Bitcoin, and pro-business policy; and a stance that’s anti-seed oil (go RFK!), anti-subsidised, environmentally harmful green quackery, and anti two-tiered, inequitable woke ideology. Any administration that puts perhaps the most competent person alive, Elon Musk, in a prominent role, has got to be net positive. But be careful what you wish for and of that. Donald Trump is not, as his most ardent supporters seem to think, going to save the world, nor any such. You need to fix money and tax to do that, and while he might tweak the latter, there will not be wholesale reform. And he is going to print lots of the former. Trump will run deficits, US debt will grow as a result and the nefarious consequences of fiat will take other forms. If there are financial problems looming for the US, I suspect their roots lie in the bond markets, where yields are rising. In short, the better alternative won. There will be more opportunity in the US than there otherwise might have been, but Trump is no Javier Milei. America isn’t yet ready for that. The initial market reaction give us some insight into where things are headed in the next few months. If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. How did markets react? First up, and something I’m particularly pleased about: bitcoin has broken to new highs, hitting $75,000 yesterday. I’m particularly pleased because new highs in bitcoin usually bring a lot of noise. This time, the noise got drowned in the election frenzy, which means there’s plenty more hype in the tank. Our chosen vehicle for bitcoin exposure, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), is now north of $250. This has been an incredible win for readers, as we first covered it last year at an adjusted $35. It’s risen 8x, compared to bitcoin’s 150%—that’s some outperformance. I wrote back in September that Q4 is usually bitcoin’s best season, and that is bearing out. Stock markets also rose, as you would expect with someone as pro-business as Trump. The Dow rose 3.5%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.5%, and the Nasdaq about 2.6%. During Trump’s last presidency, stock markets more than doubled, though with two major wobbles along the way, one due to Covid. Something similar this time around is not an unreasonable expectation—unless you subscribe to this view. If so, that would take the S&P 500 to around 12,000. Quite the number. What I found especially encouraging was the outperformance of small caps. The Russell 2000 was up 6%. Small caps have underperformed for years and are due for a run. Trumponomics clearly suits them. An interesting tidbit: Trilogy Metals (TSX: TMQ), a mining company I follow with two promising copper assets in Alaska, the development of which were blocked by the Biden administration on environmental grounds, saw its price rise 108% yesterday . Investors seem confident it will now get the green light. I expect similar stories across the mining, oil, and gas sectors. This is a time to be investing in the USA. On the other hand, commodities, especially metals, sold off. Copper fell 3%, with zinc and iron ore dropping by similar amounts. Crude couldn’t make up its mind: it came down a bit, then rallied, then ended the day flat. Natural gas was similarly indecisive Gold, silver and platinum all sold off, as the US dollar itself rallied quite sharply, rising 1%. Gold was off almost 3%, silver by almost 5%. Not good, though mostly a reaction to the dollar. Looks like those particular bull markets are, for the time being, punctured. That’s not me telling you to sell your gold by the way. Don’t. You are going to need it. Particularly if you are British. Which brings me to the UK and last week’s budget. I promised you my thoughts on it.

    6 min
4.7
out of 5
58 Ratings

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Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas and more. www.theflyingfrisby.com

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