The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

MUFG EMEA
  • 5.0 (10)
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The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Join the MUFG Global Markets Research Team for expert analysis of the week’s most pressing topics impacting economies and the markets.

  1. 1 DAY AGO

    Post Election Thoughts: Has the Trump Trade run its course?

    This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the market implications heading into and out of the recent US presidential election. In George’s view there are a couple schools of thoughts forming on how markets participants are looking to further position for a 2nd Trump administration, one that also has Republicans in power in the Congress as well. In one camp, and the one that has worked thus far, has been the playbook from the 2016 Trump 1.0 election, where financials and the dollar rallied but rates sold off. George suggests that there is more than one path potentially ahead and that it will pay to remain open minded on what may happen to the economy, markets and overall policy.  In George’s views starting points matter and a lot of the Trump 1.0 trade playbook could be priced-in already. Overall, the fear of higher fiscal deficits and a resurgence in inflation could be misplaced if there is an honest effort to seek government efficiency and reduce spending. Lastly, George reminds us that “macro still matters” and that the economy remains very bifurcated and sensitive to financial conditions. The next administration is inheriting a stock market with stretched valuations and an economy that has benefited from government spending. Meanwhile, labor markets have been weakening in the private sector for quarters and that may not change until we get further clarity on how companies react to the changes in government and fiscal policies ahead.

    15 min

  2. 5 DAYS AGO

    How hard will Asian currencies be hit by the fallout from a second Trump presidency?

    Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London talks to Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, about the implications for Asian currencies from a second Trump Presidency. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    19 min

  3. 6 DAYS AGO

    Back to basics approach to sustainable investing post US elections?

    Concerns about energy reliability, green premiums and political polarisation in recent months – that have been magnified by the outcomes of the US presidential elections – are raising questions about sustainable investing’s ability to deliver both positive impacts and strong returns on investments (RoI). In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into this pertinent theme. He believes that moves by investors towards long-term sustainable themes such as financial materiality, a broadened investable universe, and engagement over exclusions, have the potential to augment performance and keep sustainable investing on solid ground, independent of the political order of the day as well as certain narrowing in interpretations of fiduciary expectations.

    5 min

  4. 8 NOV

    What’s next for the USD after the US election?

    Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the US election. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications for the USD from a second Trump presidency.   Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    7 min

  5. 8 NOV

    Trump 2.0 implications for the world of ESG

    Donald Trump has won the White House and Republicans have won a larger-than-expected majority in the Senate. The outlook for the House is still unclear but leans toward a very narrow Republican majority and therefore a Republican sweep. This outcome is set to have significant reverberations on a plethora of ESG dimensions. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the ESG implications from president Trump’s second term in office. He believes that top of mind will be amendments to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – the largest piece of climate legislation in US history – with the focus on less of a full repeal (given the majority the surge of IRA investments and jobs created has predominantly flowed to Republican congressional districts), but rather targeted reductions on loan guarantee and grant programmes as well as consumer tax credits, such as electric vehicle purchases – particularly around foreign entity of concern (FEOC) requirements. A broader risk is the formal US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in early 2026 (akin to Trump 1.0), with a larger emphasis on fossil fuels, with decarbonisation efforts likely to become more nuanced and led by state policies as well as private sector initiatives.

    6 min

  6. 5 NOV

    US election impact on ASEAN

    Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the potential growth, monetary policy, and FX implications on ASEAN from a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory. Lloyd also highlights which ASEAN economies and currencies would underperform in an adverse Trump scenario, where 60% US tariff is imposed on all Chinese imports while a 10% blanket tariff is imposed on US imports from all other countries.  Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    10 min

  7. 1 NOV

    The US dollar into and beyond the US elections

    Following the release of the US jobs report Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales about the potential implications ahead of the FOMC next week. Derek also outlines the FX implications on a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory and highlights some polling analysis from NBC News. The discussion also covers the GBP impact following the UK budget this week. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

    14 min

  8. 1 NOV

    The US election energy transition playbook

    The US presidential election will take place on 5 November and polls indicate a tight race. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the potential impacts on clean energy post US elections.

    5 min
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About

Join the MUFG Global Markets Research Team for expert analysis of the week’s most pressing topics impacting economies and the markets.

Information

  • Creator
    MUFG EMEA
  • Years Active
    2018 - 2024
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2022 - MUFG EMEA All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

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