30 episodes

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

Turner's Take Craig Turner and Daniels Trading

    • Investing
    • 5.0 • 2 Ratings

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Futures, Options, OTC, and Structured Products

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Futures, Options, OTC, and Structured Products

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 272

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Today we take a look at the macro market, the potential for a big summer rally in the grain markets, and why farmers should look to the OTC markets with myself and StoneX for hedging 2022 crop this summer.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Corn and Soybean Oil Lead CBOT Higher

    Corn has been the upside leader lately and that should continue to be the case during a summer weather rally.  Cash corn prices are bullish in the US, setting records in Brazil, near historic highs in China, and the market thinks the USDA needs increase exports and lower ending stocks on the balance sheet.

    Soybean oil is getting a boost due to strong demand, tight stocks, and a lower crush is limiting much needed vegetable oil on the domestic and global market.

    These markets will be volatile. I still like buying buy call spreads and financing them with short put spreads.  These markets could get wild this spring and summer so it is important to find positions that you can hold onto during extreme moves.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Dec 2022 Corn 

    I had a few farmers ask me about pricing for Dec 2022 corn.  For farmers who qualify for an OTC account I really like the structured products StoneX has available.  This summer we could see Dec 2022 corn get to $4.80 or higher. Some of the accumulators could price Dec 2022 corn at $5.00 or higher with no knockout.  There are some very interesting ways to hedge 5% tp 10% of 2022 crop in the OTC market with myself and StoneX

    Why do I like pricing some Dec 2022 corn this summer?  I think we are going to see a massive expansion in acres next year in the US and around the world. We saw it after 2012/2013 and at these prices I think we see it again next year and into 2023.  Old crop and new crop are bullish and will most likely remain bullish until this year’s crop is made.  There is a possibility the best prices for Dec 2022 happen this summer.

    • 20 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Summer Ideas for Corn and Soybeans

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Summer Ideas for Corn and Soybeans

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 271

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Today we look at what the Planting Intentions report means for potential price moves this summer.  Corn and soybean acres were lower than expected last week.  We think acres will come up but not enough to prevent tight new crop ending stocks.  Weather rallies this spring and summer could be the biggest we’ve seen in years if conditions are hot and dry.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcats!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Spring & Summer Weather Rally Potential

    The Planting Intentions report sets up the possibility of big weather rallies this spring and summer. If conditions are hot and dry the US planting and growing season will be challenging.  Below are two supply and demand scenarios for corn and soybeans.  Any loss in yield could send prices higher and the market will be volatile with each change in the weather forecast this season.

    I like using options for weather markets this spring and summer.  Futures will be hard to hold onto during the volatility.  Here are some ideas for both old crop and new crop.  Please call me at 312-706-7610 or email craig.turner@stonex.com with questions.  We can always adjust these ideas based on your account, strategies, and risk/reward preferences.

    Old Crop Soybean Oil – July Soybean Oil 55/60 bull call spreads are about 1.15 cents.  The 50/47 Put spread is about 1 cent.  You could buy the call spread and sell the put spread for about 10 to 20 ticks. Each tick in bean oil is $6

    New Crop Soybeans – Nov Soybean $15 calls are about 24 cents. You could sell the $17 for 8 cents to make is a 16 cent spread for $2 of upside.  The $11.60/$11.00 puts are trading about 12 cents so you pay for most of the call spread by selling a put spread but you do open yourself up to 60 cents of risk.

    Old Crop Corn – $6 July Calls are 13 cents.  This is a bit of a flier but if acres don’t increase and we lose 5 to 10 bpa this summer, corn could be well above $6.  The $5.70/$6.20 July call spread is about 11 or 12 cents.  That is a good limited risk way to play old crop corn too.

    New Crop Corn – The Dec Corn $5/$6 call spread is about 25 cents.  The $4.40/$4.00 put spread is 13 cents. You could probably be long the call spread and short the put spread for around 12 cents.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a a href="https://info.danielstrading.com/e2t/tc/VXblb63k7GYWW3h0GZM7lj-H0W1f4B6k4krgjtN8BHR5h5nxGrV3Zsc37CgBbsW99fzj71cZPZnW839-wD4Cb8gtW5MXc785jPpvzW15yxCb9dZ80xW45XS4-1wj69YW6L_3cg6JwbSpW8kvdd722vsDNW5tx6Rf3hD8wsW66zjvC69nbd6W2M_Lw88LcZ8nW4tjkXY2VR72rVYvsnd9cLyzVVSZd1q96QYDsW3jzx3_5GCZ0GN5JFb09pz-fyW1GlFvq59pBKcN8mSRLbZXmB...

    • 23 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Prospective Plantings Outlook

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Prospective Plantings Outlook

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 270

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    This week we go over our thoughts on the Prospective Plantings report next week and what it could mean for corn and soybean prices. We don’t know what the report will say but we are expecting a lot of volatility if the numbers do not come in as expected.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Stocks

    Below are the estimates for next week’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report.  A few things jump out at me when looking at the tables below



    * 93mm acres corn and 90mm acres soybeans would be a new Corn+Soybean combined acreage total.  Given current prices I think these expectations are warranted

    * 93mm acres of corn and a trend line yield keeps corn in the $4s and $5s.  Only a significant weather scare could send old crop to $6 this summer.

    * 90mm acres of soybeans is TIGHT.  With a trend line yield we use as much as we produce. Old crop ending stocks are predicted to be 120mm bu.  At 90mm acres and a 50.5 bpa my estimates keeps new crop ending stocks at 120mm bu. No changes to ending stocks year-over-year

    * Corn March 1 stocks estimates are predicted be less than 200mm below last year.  In years past we have seen some big misses on the Quarterly Stocks report and it usually has to do with getting the feed number wrong.

    * Soybean stocks are going to be much tighter this year than last year at this point in the calendar.  Soybeans are very tight.



    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.





    Corn

    Below are my supply and demand tables for a few different scenarios. For old crop I assume the USDA keeps old crop exports at 2.6 billion.  I know many of you think exports could be 200mm to 400mm higher due to Chinese corn demand. I understand the argument but the USDA seems to think the increased buying from China is pushing traditional US corn customers to Ukraine or South America.

    • 34 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Market Chop

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Market Chop

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 269

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    This week we go over the latest Fed meeting and why we still have a bullish outlook on the macro markets. We take a look into the recent energy sell off, the rally in livestock, and why the grain markets are grinding lower this month.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Fed Meeting Recap

    The Federal Reserve met this week and announced no changes to interest rates. This was expected and no surprise to the market.  I think the more important news was the Fed’s outlook on GDP, unemployment, and inflation.



    * 2021 GDP expected GDP growth now 6.5% compared to 4.2% in the Dec meeting

    * 2021 Unemployment expected 4.5% compared to 5.0 in Dec meeting

    * 2021 Inflation expected to rise to 2.4%, up from 1.8% in the last meeting



    These are bullish sentiments for the US economy and the commodity markets.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Energy Markets

    Crude Oil broke hard today. Inventories climbed higher yesterday and the market was overbought.  A lot of the rally since the election has been due to US supply policy, OPEC not increasing production, and the expected energy growth this spring and summer.  Before Crude can make the next leg higher we will need to see real demand growth.  For now I think we trade between the mid $50s and mid $60s.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so a href="https://info.danielstrading.com/e2t/tc/VXblb63k7GYWW3h0GZM7lj-H0W1f4B6k4krgjtN8BHR733p_b1V1-WJV7Cg-dbW6ZmxhB4StHNlVKJ4M52lprGMW37LNfs38_DW8W7Mw00t31Cn3gV34R0c7l2mY3W7z_7tt8X6d5LW1GDY611mN-G1W49N9k_1tJV2mW1djGH16Gxk8lW887Xxv3fKjwVW80BfLK3TmSB_W6jD1Xj7kq1z6Vlt7rB3VSY_YW40tN3612WZMpW5wDQqs7kzn_MW9b2pNW2DbxlYW7sfxX83FxlrKW1CSsZ01q3VfTW4pybcl27KJRMW1WfZhn3KBc1pW3Xgfd569x441W6R49vW6Ht2bSW5_cBcL4Kq9xLW45p4-B4yRMCM...

    • 30 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Energy Bullish Heading Into Spring and Summer

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Energy Bullish Heading Into Spring and Summer

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 268

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    In our latest podcast we go over the new COVID stimulus just approved in the US House of Representatives. We also talk about energy demand likely to increase this spring and summer while supply might stay the same. OPEC may prefer higher oil prices and not feel the need to roll back their production cuts.  The US government is more likely to promote futures growth of green energy than immediate growth in fossil fuel supply.  This could send crude over $70 this summer.  Finally we look at the grain markets and my favorites are still old crop soybean oil and new crop soybeans.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    OPEC+ Meets Thursday

    OPEC+ will meet tomorrow and some analysts think they will not roll back production cuts.  It was widely thought this meeting would be the one where OPEC+ decides to pump more oil as demand and prices rebound.  Now we are hearing reports OPEC+ may not make any changes.  That could be another bullish sign for energy in the US this spring and summer.

    Texas and Mississippi are looking to lift all mask mandates.  Summer driving season is around the corner and many people are looking to make up for lost time stuck at home.  The US and global economy will continue to rebound and grow as more people are vaccinated.

    I like July crude. I like the futures if you can handle it (easier said than done!). I like buying call spread and selling put spread as a limited risk way to get crude exposure too.  I would prefer to buy a pullback so give me a call at 312-706-7610 to figure out a game plan for energy positions this spring and summer.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Turner’s Take Podcast

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please a href="https://www.danielstrading.

    • 22 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Ag Forum Bullish Chinese Corn Demand

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Ag Forum Bullish Chinese Corn Demand

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 267

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Big news out of the Ag Forum today. Large multiyear Chinese demand for US corn might be a reality. In other news new crop stocks will start off adequate for corn and tight for soybeans next marketing year, which should not be a surprise to traders.  If you want to hear more about our thoughts on new crop and why China is likely to be a big player in US corn for foreseeable future, then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Ag Forum New Crop

    Below is US Corn and Soybean balance sheets for 2021/22.  Click here for the full presentation.  At 92mm acres and a 179.5 yield corn starts off at 1.552 billion ending stocks. This is an adequate supply of corn but runs the risk getting tight if demand surges or the crop is sub par.  There is no reason for new crop corn to go below $4 but it is hard to argue for $5 or higher without a real weather scare this spring/summer.

    Soybeans is the second table below and with 90mm acres and a 50.8 bpa new crop ending stocks are only 145mm.  That is tight and it could be a record starting point.  Soybeans need acres and a good crop.  This suggests soybeans should be elevated the next 12 to 18 months.  Old crop should trade in a $12 to $15.50 range and new crop between $11 and $13.





    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Chinese Corn Demand

    For me this was the big news out of the Ag Forum today.  Click here for the full presentation. The USDA thinks there is a possibility that Chinese demand for US corn could stay strong for years.  To combat a return of ASF, hog producers in China will need to feed more corn.  It is believed that before the ASF crisis only 50% of hog feed was corn.  A significant portion of hog feed was recycled food waste and that could have contribut...

    • 27 min

Customer Reviews

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Scottw72 ,

Good Recap of Markets

Light and breezy, easy to listen to podcast. Gives good views and strategy advice. 30mins and done, ideal for anyone trading commodities

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