Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

Capital Economics
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Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

  1. 5 HR AGO

    Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning

    This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.  Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-line Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

    13 min

  2. 4 DAYS AGO

    Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the Ukraine war could look like

    Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing’s point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia’s earnings say about AI’s potential.  Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: London Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024 Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-over Trump and the war in Ukrainehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraine Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025

    26 min

  3. 16 NOV

    The economic fallout from tariffs and deportations and what follows the 'Trump bump'

    Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy. Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets – dubbed the 'Trump bump' – wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. Analysis referenced in this episode: Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/video-presentation-trumps-second-term-implications-us-economy New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidencyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-markets-update/new-market-forecasts-ahead-new-trump-presidency Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trumphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/revising-our-currency-forecasts-account-trump Data: Global Market Forecastshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/global-markets-forecasts

    31 min

  4. 8 NOV

    Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese stimulus that wasn’t

    As the dust settles on that momentous election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s pledges and about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment.  Plus, after another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement disappoints, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explains the disconnect between what the market wants to hear from the leadership in Beijing, and what the leadership is prepared to do to support the economy.  Analysis referenced in this episode: Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & Chinahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/trump-tariffs-tech-controls-taiwan-chinaWhat happened to the fiscal stimulus?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/what-happened-fiscal-stimulus Slowdown still has a lot further to run https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/slowdown-still-has-lot-further-run

    24 min

  5. 6 NOV

    Special Episode: The US election aftermath and Trump's second coming

    In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications.  In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including: What Trump’s policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy;How financial markets are likely to react in the coming weeks as this news beds in;The growing US public debt threat and whether – and when – the bond vigilantes could really assert themselves. Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-second-term-macro-and-market-implications Key Issue: Trump's second termhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024

    14 min

  6. 1 NOV

    What this election means for macro and markets and the aftermath of the UK Budget

    Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.) Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Register Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of unionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-unionKey Issues: US election 2024https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quickerHow worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields

    27 min

  7. 30 OCT

    Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market reaction

    After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on: What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy;How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading;What this Budget could mean for the UK housing market.

    14 min

  8. 25 OCT

    Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s immigration U-turn and more

    Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields.  Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics.  There’s more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory. Plus, Canada’s population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa’s stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country’s economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast: Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strengthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strength Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantes Key Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget dayhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budget Canada's population decline will drag down GDP growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth

    30 min
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Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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