Sinica Podcast Kaiser Kuo
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A weekly discussion of current affairs in China with journalists, writers, academics, policymakers, business people and anyone with something compelling to say about the country that's reshaping the world. Hosted by Kaiser Kuo.
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Back to the Future: David M. Lampton and Thomas Fingar on What Went Wrong and How to Fix It
This week on Sinica, I speak with veteran China analysts Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton — Mike Lampton — about a paper they published in the Winter 2024 edition of the Washington Quarterly. It's an excellent overview of how and why the bilateral relationship took such a bad turn roughly 15 years ago, citing mistakes both sides made and the reasons why China shifted around that time from one of its two basic behavioral modes — more open, tolerant, and simpatico in its foreign policy — to the other mode, which is both more internally repressive and externally assertive.
Thomas Fingar is Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research. He served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council — and he’s the author of many books, including most recently From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform.
Mike Lampton is Professor Emeritus and former Hyman Professor and Director of SAIS-China and China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute. Mike was also formerly President of the National Committee on United States-China Relations.
05:04 – The problem with the use of the term "autocracy" to describe China's system
09:18 – Analysis of the motivation behind China's actions, questioning the assumption that all decisions are solely for perpetuating the Communist Party's power.
10:25 – Rethinking Xi Jinping's personal influence over China's policy decisions: the checks on his power within the Chinese political system.
15:58 – Critique of deterministic theories in political science regarding state behavior, particularly concerning China's foreign policy and domestic policy actions.
19:13 – The importance of avoiding oversimplified and deterministic explanations for Chinese behavior on the global stage.
23:43 – Discussion on the perception of China as an unstoppable juggernaut and the consequences of such a view for international relations and domestic policies in the U.S.
24:41 – Analysis of the notion that China seeks to recreate an imperial tribute system in its foreign relations and regional strategy.
28:09 – Introduction of the concept of two strategic constellations that have historically guided China's policy focus: national/regime security and economic/social development.
33:11 – Exploration of factors leading to China's shift from prioritizing economic and social development to focusing more on national and regime security.
37:38 – Examination of the internal and external dynamics contributing to China's policy shifts and the impact of globalization on societal and political tensions.
48:47 – Reflection on the post-9/11 period as a time of relatively smooth U.S.-China relations and speculation on the role of international crises in shaping bilateral dynamics.
52:59 – Discussion on the challenges and opportunities for the U.S. and China to adjust their policies and rhetoric to manage tensions and avoid further exacerbating the bilateral relationship.
Recommendations:
Tom: The novels of Mick Herron (author of Slow Horses); the novels of Alan Furst, including Night Soldiers and The Polish Officer.
Mike: Philip Taubman, In the Nation’s Service (a biography of George Schultz); and Liz Cheney, Oath and Honor
Kaiser: The Magician, by Colm Tóibín — an unconventional novelized biography of Thomas Mann
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Kerry Brown: on What does the West Wants from China, and the Exercise of Chinese Power
This week on the Sinica Podcast, a show taped in Salzburg, Austria, at the Salzburg Global Seminar with Kerry Brown of King's College, London, on the prolific author's latest book, China Incorporated: The Politics of a World Where China is Number One.
05:22 – Chinese worldview and historical perceptions
07:51 – The unease with China's rise
10:42 – Chinese exceptionalism vs. Western universalism
17:30 – Parallels between American domestic unease and perceptions of China
22:27 – Discussion on China's competing belief system
33:56 – China's raw form of capitalism
40:36 – What the West wants from China
46:10 – The internet as a reflection of Chinese power and limitations
51:17 – China's syncretism and its impact today
55:00 – The narrative of Chinese success and its PR challenges
1:05:32 – Revising Western narratives on China's development
A complete transcript of this podcast is available at sinica.substack.com. Join the community on Substack and get not only the transcript but lots of other writing and audio to boot!
Recommendations:
Kerry: Civilization and Capitalism by Fernand Braudel
Kaiser: Empire of Silver: A New Monetary History of China by Jin Xu; and re-reading Hilary Mantel's masterful Wolf Hall trilogy (Wolf Hall, Bring Up the Bodies, and The Mirror and the Light)
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Historian Rana Mitter on ideology in China's "New Era" — live from Salzburg, Austria
Historian Rana Mitter joins Sinica this week in a show taped live in Salzburg, Austria at the Salzburg Global Seminar, in which he discusses efforts by Party ideologists to create a Confucian-Marxist synthesis that can serve as an enduring foundation for a modern Chinese worldview in the self-proclaimed “new era.”
01:28 – Is China a revisionist power?
02:16 – Right-sizing China's global ambitions
09:27 — How China utilizes historical narratives to support political ends
10:43 – Marxism and China's Historical Understanding
17:07 – China's "New Era" and Party history
28:38 – The Confucian-Marxist Synthesis
56:58 – China's ability to reinvent itself
1:02:15 – What’s the next big question?
A complete transcript is available at the Sinica Substack.
Recommendations:
Rana: Eliza Clark, Boy Parts
Kaiser: Anthony Kaldellis, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood: The Rise and Fall of Byzantium, 955 A.D. to the First Crusade
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Schwarzman Scholars Capstone Showcase: The 2023 Winners
This week on Sinica, the winners of the 2023 Schwarzman Capstone Showcase. Two individuals and one team were selected as the best research projects after review of their projects and presentation of their findings. Their work is first-rate — and if you don’t factor in the very young age of the Schwarzman Scholars in competition. You’ll meet Shawn Haq, who won for his work on U.S. and Chinese expert perspectives on Taiwan; Corbin Duncan, who looked at the impact of the One Child Policy on the economic and social circumstances of only children in China; and the duo of Kelly Wu and Manthan Shah, part of a larger team that studied decarbonization efforts in Shandong province in steel, aluminum, chemical, and cement production. All three of these research efforts yielded fascinating insights.
2:15 – Introducing the Schwarzman Capstone Showcase: topics, judges, and process
4:41 – Self-introductions from Shawn Haq, Corbin Duncan, Kelly Wu, and Manthan Shah
15:07 – Shawn Haq: U.S.-China Expert Perspectives on Cross-Straits Relations
29:09 – Corbin Duncan: Only Children and Contemporary China
48:12 – Kelly Wu and Manthan Shah: Decarbonization of Shandong Province’s Materials Sector
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The Ukrainian Factor in China's Strategy: a roundtable
This week on Sinica, a special taping of an online event I moderated on February 22, just two days shy of the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The session was titled “The Ukrainian Factor in China’s Strategy,” and it was organized by the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and featured that organization’s chairperson, Vita Golod; Bartosz Kowalski, senior analyst at the Center for Asian Affairs at the University of Lodz; Lü Xiaoyu of Peking University’s School of International Studies; and Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs, at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
Please support Sinica by becoming a subscriber at sinica.substack.com. Please note that I have discontinued Patreon, and ask all supporters to help out over on Substack.
2:42 – Introducing the guests
6:19 – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi
12:19 – What do Ukraine and its allies want from China?
16:59 – What inducements might Ukraine’s Western allies offer China?
21:51 – How has China’s position changed over the course of the last two years?
29:52 – The space for expression of pro-Ukraine voices in China
32:08 – Ukrainian and Chinese popular opinion
36:44 – Does the diplomacy of sanctimony work on a realist power?
48:00 – China’s 12-Point Position
51:48 – Does Russian economic dependency on China translate into leverage?
54:04 – The overlap between China’s 12 points and Zelenskyy’s 10 points
57:42 – How reliable is America as a partner in this election year?
1:08:53 – How will this war end? What compromises are the sides willing to make?
1:21:32 – Lü Xiaoyu’s trip to Ukraine and his meeting with President Zelenskyy
There’s a complete transcript to this episode available at sinica.substack.com.
Sorry, no recommendations this week, but here’s one from me: The new remake of James Clavell’s epic novel Shògun, which is out on Hulu and FX. It’s pretty mind-blowing!
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Peter Hessler, live at Duke University's Nasher Museum
This week on Sinica I'm delighted to bring you a live conversation with writer Peter Hessler, recorded at Duke University's Nasher Auditorium in Durham, North Carolina on November 10, 2023. The event was sponsored by the Duke Middle East Studies Center and the Asian Pacific Studies Institute, and was titled "Modern Revolutions in Ancient Civilizations."
Peter, known for both his trilogy of books written in China — Rivertown, Oracle Bones, and Country Driving — as well as for his reporting for The New Yorker, talks about how his years in China gave him perspective when living in Cairo and writing about Egypt during the Arab Spring. His book on Egypt, The Buried: An Archaeology of the Egyptian Revolution, was made richer for me by the comparisons and contrasts with China threading throughout.
Special thanks to Griffin Orlando of the Middle East Study Center and Alex Nickley from the Asia Pacific Studies Institute, and Ralph Litzinger from Duke Anthropology.
6:27 – What Peter’s China experience brought to his writing on China — and vice-versa
9:45 – Contrasting the Chinese and Egyptian revolutions
18:37 – Revolution in thinking in Egypt and China
35:49 – Peter on his approach to the craft of reporting and writing
51:47 – Peter’s work in China as a longitudinal cohort study — and what it reveals so far
58:03 – A preview of Peter’s forthcoming book, Other Rivers
Recommendations:
Peter: Gerald Durrell, My Family and Other Animals is one of the books
Kaiser: Kenneth W. Harl’s book Empires of the Steppes: A History of the Nomadic Tribes Who Shaped Civilization.
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Customer Reviews
Superb podcast for anyone with an interest in China
As a long time listener I feel compelled to write a review. I've developed a keen interest in Chinese current affairs and history since moving to China. This podcast covers a wide range of topics and the guests are often truly fascinating individuals with great stories to tell. I love listening to these stories from people with real, in depth and often first hand knowledge of the topics being discussed. I've learned a lot since listening.
Keep up the good work guys.