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This is a link post. This is a linkpost for titotal's posts on AI risk scepticism, which I think are great. I list the posts below chronologically.
Chaining the evil genie: why "outer" AI safety is probably easy
Conclusion
Summing up my argument in TLDR format:
For each AGI, there will be tasks that have difficulty beyond it's capabilities.  You can make the task “subjugate humanity under these constraints” arbitrarily more difficult or undesirable by adding more and more constraints to a goal function.  A lot of these constraints are quite simple, but drastically effective, such as implementing time limits, bounded goals, and prohibitions on human death.  Therefore, it is not very difficult to design a useful goal function that raises subjugation difficulty above the capability level of the AGI, simply by adding arbitrarily many constraints. Even if you disagree with some of these points, it seems hard to [...]
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Outline:
(00:16) Chaining the evil genie: why outer AI safety is probably easy
(01:24) AGI Battle Royale: Why “slow takeover” scenarios devolve into a chaotic multi-AGI fight to the death
(03:34) How AGI could end up being many different specialized AIs stitched together
(04:38) Why AGI systems will not be fanatical maximisers (unless trained by fanatical humans)
(06:25) Bandgaps, Brains, and Bioweapons: The limitations of computational science and what it means for AGI
(08:01) The bullseye framework: My case against AI doom
(09:36) Diamondoid bacteria nanobots: deadly threat or dead-end? A nanotech investigation
(11:06) The Leeroy Jenkins principle: How faulty AI could guarantee warning shots
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First published:

May 30th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yfmKnyd3uThq9Dd2c/titotal-on-ai-risk-scepticism

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post. This was ~three weeks ago, so I'm a little surprised I couldn't already find anything about it on the forum. Maybe I'm just bad at searching?
Anyway, Ron DeSantis posted the following around the same time as the Florida ban:
https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1785684809467011431
I suspect the real motivations are more ordinary protectionism, but it seems like potentially a sign that cultivated meat might start getting politicized / embroiled in the broader culture war, though also (perhaps surprisingly) DeSantis has had supportive comments from a Democratic senator (see Vox again).
I'm interested in the extent to which alt-meat startups and policy folk were surprised by this move – whether this represents a more hostile environment than we expected, or whether this was "already priced in". I tried to look at stock prices, but based on some quick searches only found one publically-traded cultivated meat stock STKH, and don't [...]
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First published:

May 30th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ohNpHQAZXthBZERa5/florida-and-alabama-ban-cultivated-meat

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

In this post, I'll discuss my current understanding of SB-1047, what I think should change about the bill, and what I think about the bill overall (with and without my suggested changes).
Overall, SB-1047 seems pretty good and reasonable. However, I think my suggested changes could substantially improve the bill and there are some key unknowns about how implementation of the bill will go in practice.
The opinions expressed in this post are my own and do not express the views or opinions of my employer.
[This post is the product of about 4 hours of work of reading the bill, writing this post, and editing it. So, I might be missing some stuff.]
[Thanks to various people for commenting.]
My current understanding
(My understanding is based on a combination of reading the bill, reading various summaries of the bill, and getting pushback from commenters.)
The bill places requirements [...]
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Outline:
(00:49) My current understanding
(07:15) How will this go in practice?
(08:02) What if you want to open source a model?
(10:05) What should change?
(19:02) What do I think about the bill?
(20:41) Appendix: What would change my mind about the bill and make me no longer endorse it?
(24:01) Appendix: Key questions about implementation and how the future goes
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:

May 30th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BubpGy3tmBRQ4Exn8/thoughts-on-sb-1047

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

TL;DR: I donated my kidney and you can too. If that's too scary, consider blood donation, the bone marrow registry, post-mortem organ donation, or other living donations (birth tissue, liver donation).
Kidney donation sucks. It's scary, painful, disruptive, scarring. My friends and family urged me not to; words were exchanged, tears were shed. My risk of preeclampsia tripled, that of end stage renal disease multiplied by five. I had to turn down two job offers while prepping for donation.
It is easy to read philosophical arguments in favor of donation, agree with them, and put the book back on the shelf. But it is different when your friend needs a kidney: Love bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things.
Eighteen months ago, at 28-years-old, my friend Alan started losing weight. He developed a distinctive butterfly-shaped rash and became too weak to eat. On February [...]
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First published:

May 30th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xiDKb3XvJxKiwNevJ/a-scar-worth-bearing-my-improbable-story-of-kidney-donation

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

We are excited to announce the launch of the ONEI, an organisation dedicated to informing decision-making about insect farming in France.
The context
France is a leader in insect farming, with two of the largest companies in the sector working there. The industry has grown immensely in recent years, gathering more than a billion dollars in investment worldwide, with the number of insects farmed rising yearly from 1 trillion to 10 to 30 trillion in 5 years. The sector is expected to grow even further in the future.
While discussions on the topic often revolve around insects as food, farmed insects are primarily intended to be used as feed for other farmed animals like fish or chickens or as pet food.
Insect farming has been presented as a potential solution to environmental challenges linked to conventional livestock farming. France is currently supporting the industry with funding and [...]
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Outline:
(00:21) The context
(01:35) Our role
(02:28) How you can contribute
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First published:

May 29th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xeiCFAYr68tFHhqAr/announcing-the-launch-of-the-national-observatory-on-insect

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive Summary
Ansh, a 1-year-old Charity Entrepreneurship incubated charity, has been delivering an evidence-based, scientifically proven intervention called Kangaroo Care to low birth weight and premature babies in 2 government hospitals in India since January 2024. Ansh estimates that their programs are saving, on average, 4 lives a month per facility and a total of 98 lives per year. The cost of one life saved is approximately $2077 (current costs, not a potential estimate). Ansh is now replicating the programs in two additional hospitals, doubling their impact before the end of this year.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), neonatal conditions[1] are among the top 3 causes of death worldwide[2]. This makes neonatal mortality one of the largest-scale causes of suffering and death today. In 2022, 2.3 million babies died in the first 28 days of life (i.e. the newborn/neonatal period) (World Health Organisation, 2024). Let's compare [...]
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Outline:
(00:06) Executive Summary
(02:33) I. The Problem and Solution
(04:29) II. Introducing Ansh
(08:36) III. Our Impact To Date
(09:02) Baseline Neonatal Mortality
(10:49) Lives Saved
(12:56) Cost-Effectiveness
(15:36) IV. Our Plans For The Future
(16:04) (1) KC Improvements
(18:48) (2) Scale Up
(20:34) V. Acknowledgments and Partnerships
The original text contained 12 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:

May 29th, 2024


Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hTEaKau8D4Ah3NPcu/introducing-ansh-a-charity-entrepreneurship-incubated

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.