FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

4.3（28）
政治
アップデート：毎週

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

1日前

Voters Lose Their Appetite For Incumbents

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

42分
5日前

How The Polls Did In 2024

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28分
11月18日

What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41分
11月14日

A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41分
11月11日

The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

41分
11月6日

Donald Trump Wins The Presidency

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

36分
11月5日

An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night

At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

44分
11月4日

The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge

Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls. They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

42分

すべて見る（203）

4.3

5段階評価中

28件の評価

Excellent but more wonkery, please!

2021/04/30

Standards Geek

Listening to Perry’s last episode as a regular. Congratulations on your move! Looking forward to your work there. To be honest, I’m generally here for “Model Talk”, “Good Use of Polling/Bad Use of Polling”, and other wonky stuff. To my taste, Perry’s punditry will go down better in the Post along with a glass of sherry. He’s easy to listen to because of his persuasive style.😊 Julia really brought out the best in Perry today, a very informative conversation. I really liked her “political science theory” comments. More Julia, please!
Great Pod for Politics Addicts

2020/05/27

Mr_Teach

One of my favorite politics podcasts, they try to be data based so get some original perspectives on elections and politics in general. Good chemistry between the presenters
Smart and insightful

2018/11/03

Mike from Tokyo

I even (especially) like the banter among the contributors.
FiveThirtyEight

2016/10/18

Zurcronium

High quality and passion are two words that describe this podcast. Silver keeps the focus on the data, along with the team, but their discussion displays their passion for American democracy and the way politics unfold in major elections, like the November 8th election coming up. This is as good as it gets when it comes to analysis of US politics. Silver has done a great job.