National Security Conversations with Happymon Jacob Council for Strategic and Defense Research

In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob interviews Amb. Rajiv Bhatia (Rtd. Indian Diplomat & Distinguished Fellow at the Gateway House) about India’s engagement with Africa and the nature of strategic challenge from increasing Chinese presence and strategic depth in the continent. He highlights China’s economic, political and strategic interests in Africa, given its natural resources, numerical heft in the international fora, and significance for China’s rise as a global power. Amb. Bhatia argues that while India is seen as a benign power, the reality of Chinese power is becoming increasingly apparent. He also acknowledges that India has made significant gains in the last decade and a half but warns that its grip on Africa has gotten looser in the past 3-4 years due to Covid-19, Galwan, and Ukraine crises. He stresses that it is crucial to recognize that India’s Indo-Pacific concept spans the Indian Ocean, including Africa’s East Coast in the Western Indian Ocean and the African continent.

For the 125th episode of NSC, Dr. Happymon Jacob hosts a live discussion with Amb. Shyam Saran (India’s Former Foreign Secretary & Author) about his latest book titled, ‘How China Sees India and the World’.

In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr. Avinash Paliwal (Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Deputy Director of the SOAS South Asia Institute) to discuss the Indian state’s response to conflict-generated migrations since independence. Dr. Paliwal argues that the relationship between the home and the host state and the reputational benefits are the most important factors influencing a state’s response to the conflict generated migrant crisis. The interview explains the nature of India’s relation with the international refugee regime – including its refusal to sign the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol – and highlights the absence of a domestic legislative framework to distinguish between illegal migrants and refugees. In response to the recent movement of Rohingyas from India to Bangladesh, Dr. Paliwal argues that domestic politics appears to have gained the upper hand in India. He suggests that India’s approach to conflict-generated migrations has witnessed a fundamental shift since it dealt with the Rohingyas. Dr. Paliwal appreciates India’s overall approach to dealing with conflict-generated migrant crises compared to many western states, given the state of India’s economy and issues of caste, class, and diversity within the country. Focusing on Myanmar since the coup and Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, the interview also interrogates the novel development in India’s foreign policy to deal with whoever happens to be in power, regardless of the regime type. For Afghanistan, Dr. Paliwal makes a strong case that India should have a presence and outreach in Kabul to avoid any strategic catastrophe.

In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr George Cooke (Diplomatic Historian & Senior lecturer at the Department of International Relations, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka) to discuss the ongoing economic and political crisis in Sri Lanka. Dr Cooke discusses what exactly landed Srilanka into one of the worst crises it has faced in decades, along with the strategic significance of Sri Lanka in the Indo-Pacific region. He paints a clear picture of the sufferings of ordinary Sri Lankans who are facing severe shortages of essentials, sharp price rises and crippling power cuts. Dr Cooke is critical of the current government’s handling of the crisis. While acknowledging the role of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is exacerbating Sri Lanka’s economic woes, he argues that the major share of the blame lies with the government’s poor economic policies. Dr Cooke highlights India's continuous assistance to the island nation but is critical of the West for its lack of concern and support, which drove Sri Lanka to be over-reliant on China. He also argues that Sri Lanka has failed to negotiate well with China but refutes charges of “debt-trap diplomacy.

In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Amb. (Dr.) Mohan Kumar (Retd. Indian Diplomat and Professor of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University) about the recently concluded free trade agreement between India and Australia. The discussion dwells on India’s foreign trade policy more generally. Amb. Kumar explains why India opted out of the RCEP negotiations and highlights that India’s approach now is to have Free Trade Agreements with individual countries tailor-made to suit its exports. He also highlights that migration issues in the trade flow can be reduced by the ‘Labour mobility and Partnership Agreement’ between the countries. Amb. Kumar also stresses the importance of foreign trade in the growth of India’s GDP. While addressing the lack of competitiveness in the Indian markets, he discusses the lack of political will that has allowed India to be held hostage to vested interests in terms of foreign trade agreements. He points out how India is moving from the Act East policy to entirely Acting West in FTA negotiations. He is critical of India for not promoting regional trade agreements with its South Asian neighbours. While he believes that trade partnerships with Japan, Australia and South Korea can help reduce India’s dependency on China, he is concerned about India’s trade with ASEAM. India’s exports face higher tariffs in the ASEAN market than the Chinese exports to ASEAN. Alerting us to the significance of Vietnam’s foreign trade agreements with the European Union, he makes a case for India and the EU to conclude an FTA or Indian products will lose out to Vietnamese products. In summary, Dr Kumar explains how international trade is becoming more preferential, strategic, and reciprocal in nature, opposite to what the WTO-regulated MFN-based trade had to offer.

In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr Jabin T. Jacob (Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies) and discusses the significance of the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s unannounced visit to India. Dr Jabin Jacob argues that such visits should not occur without prior discussion of the outcomes, especially in light of outstanding issues along the Line of Actual Control. He is critical of India’s lack of response to Chinese transgressions and makes a strong case for punitive actions if India is to deter Chinese salami-slicing tactics in the future. Dr Jacob explains the uniqueness of the Chinese Party-State, where regime interest prevails over national interests and what it means for India-China strategic rivalry. He describes the ideological reasons behind Chinese support for authoritarian Russia against the West and delineates the complexities of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the lessons China might learn from it.