Trump wins, whats the trade? Also; AMSL, Nvidia and Crowdstrike all worth a look? (#609)

Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week’s biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump’s election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape.

Trump's Victory – What’s the Trade?

• Trump’s presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin.
• Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and the South African economy.
• Notes on the uncertainty of Trump’s policies and their potential effects on inflation, EVs, and cryptocurrency.

Nvidia in the Dow; Intel Out

• Nvidia enters the Dow Jones, replacing Intel. Simon critiques the Dow's price-based index system but acknowledges Nvidia’s stock performance, fuelled by strong demand from major tech firms.
• Discussion on how Nvidia's AI hardware demand could shape future stock gains.

Nvidia | Weekly chart | Close 06 Nov 24

Murray & Roberts Update

• Murray & Roberts faces project downscaling from De Beers, revealing challenges tied to low diamond demand.
• Simon examines the ripple effects across the mining and construction sectors, highlighting how competitor data can provide insights.

Palladium & Gold Trends

• Palladium and gold face downward pressure; Simon explores reasons for the dips, including potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium.
• Simon highlights that gold’s long-term appeal remains strong, driven by central banks diversifying away from U.S. dollars into gold.

Gold | Weekly chart | 07 Nov 24

Bank Rate Cuts – FOMC & BOE

• Rate cuts anticipated from the FOMC and Bank of England as central banks shift to a rate-cutting cycle. Insights on the potential impact on global markets and currency dynamics.

ASML and AI Hardware Market

• ASML’s forward guidance disappoints, affecting semiconductor market outlook. Simon explains the unique position of ASML in the AI chip supply chain and its long-term value as a buy-the-dip candidate.

CrowdStrike Resurgence

• CrowdStrike's recovery following a Microsoft update issue and Delta lawsuit. Simon assesses the stock’s growth potential in the cybersecurity space.

Listener Takeaway: Markets remain unpredictable but resilient, with global relations, tech policies, and central bank strategies driving shifts. Simon emphasizes informed trading and the long view in these uncertain times.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Disclaimers: The JSE Direct podcast is independent of JSE Limited and reflects Simon Brown’s views, not necessarily those of the JSE. Always consider risks when investing.