US Market Open: Equites gain & DXY bid with the Trump Trade still at play; Crude slumps amid constructive geopolitical updates

Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
  • Equities are entirely in the green, with a strong European morning thus far; the RTY outperforms.
  • DXY is on a firmer footing with the Trump Trade still in action, JPY underperforms following the BoJ SOO which highlighted the lack of urgency to hike.
  • Bonds are mixed, with Bunds firmer amid suggestions that Chancellor Scholz could bring forward a vote of no-confidence; Treasury cash trade is closed on account of US Veterans Day.
  • Crude slips on comments by Hezbollah that there are negotiations to stop the war; XAU/base metals are hampered by the stronger Dollar and softer-than-expected Chinese inflation metrics overnight.
  • Looking ahead, No Tier 1 events. As a reminder, today is US Veterans Day.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1%) opened on a strong footing and continued to climb higher into the morning; some of the upside has since subsided, with indices now traversing best levels.
  • European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only Basic Resources sitting ever-so-slightly in negative territory. The sector is weighed on by slight losses in metals prices, given the continued disappointing inflation metrics out of China. Construction & Materials tops the pile, joined by Insurance and then Chemicals thereafter.
  • US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3% RTY +1.2%) are entirely in the green, with very clear outperformance in the economy-linked RTY, with the “Trump Trade” very much still in action.
  • Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
  • Click for the additional news
  • Click for a detailed summary

FX

  • DXY has started the week off on the front foot as markets continue to digest the likely impact of a Trump Presidency and a potential Republican sweep. DXY has extended above Friday's peak at 105.20 but is yet to reclaim the post-election peak at 105.44.
  • EUR has extended on Friday's losses with EUR/USD slipping further onto a 1.06 handle. Absent an improvement in the Eurozone outlook, the pair could end up testing its YTD low from 16th April at 1.0601.
  • GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers with EUR/GBP hitting a fresh YTD low at 0.8282. Cable is tucked within Friday's 1.2884-1.2989 range.
  • JPY is the notable laggard across the majors with the ongoing reasssessment of the relative Fed vs. BoJ policy paths continuing to guide the pair. The latest BoJ summary of opinions has been noted as a potential source of weakness for the JPY with the account continuing to highlight a lack of urgency for immediate hikes. USD/JPY has been as high as 153.85.
  • Antipodeans are both flat vs. the broadly stronger USD with some support garnered from the positive risk tone.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.1813 (prev. 7.1433).
  • SNB Vice Chairman Martin said the central bank has made absolutely no commitment to future interest rate cuts and the next rate decision will depend on the assessment in December. Martin said the Franc is attractive as a safe haven and due to

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