1,098 episodes
Play Me or Fade Me Sports Betting Picks Podcast Mr. Action Junkie
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- Sport
This show delivers daily sports betting picks, insights, and tips in under 14 minutes most days.
Podcast launched in August 2021, here's a list of some accomplishments:
2021 NFL Football - 57.7% against the spread winners, 62.8%-win rate on player prop bets
2022 MLB Baseball - 57.2%-win rate on team totals
2022 NFL Football - 60.2% against the spread winners
2023 NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments - 58.1%-win rate on 1H unders
2023 College Football - Kota Capper College Football Central Lock, Underdog, and Unit Champ
2023 NFL Football - 57.3%-win rate on player prop bets
2024 NCAA College Basketball - 54%, up 22.18 units (up 58 units total w/blog plays)
2024 NBA Prop Bets - 57.2%, up 33.93 units
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
Podcast motto: Manage that bankroll, don't chase money, have fun, and let's cash some tickets together.
Manage that bankroll: Flat betting, percentage model, confidence model, and Kelly criterion model are all good options to be a long-term sports bettor. I flat bet risking 1 unit vs. winning 1 unit.
Don't chase money: Think risk management vs. emotional wagering. I've hit 60% plus percent over 60 days only to bust out on a bad weekend by losing all discipline. I go hot/cold on a dime and need to weather the storms.
Have fun: For me, sports betting is a hobby, so I need to keep it fun. I bet significantly less per game now than I did 20 years ago and I'm still having just as much fun doing it.
Overall: I'm not good enough tail, not bad enough to fade. Some days I win, some days I lose. I've made and still make plenty of mistakes, I'm still learning but I love sports betting. I mispronounce names, cities, and teams.
Caution: For entertainment purposes only. Gambling related content is not intended for anyone under the age of 21. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Sports gambling isn't easy, I like gambling stocks long-term for that reason.
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Last Minute Sunday Bets! WNBA Bet, Total Base Prop Bet, Strikeout Prop Bet, 3 Outs Recorded Prop Bets, 3 NRFI Bets, 3 ML Bets, and a First 5 Run Line wager for Sunday.
Support the Show Newsletter: (includes Daily MLB Player Prop Bets)
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/playmeorfademe/membership
Today's Card:
Phoenix -8 vs. Indiana
Casey Mize (Detroit) Under 5.5 strikeouts (-175)
Austin Hedges (Cleveland) Under 0.5 total bases (-115)
Gerrit Cole (NY Yankees) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Hunter Greene (Cincinnati) Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155)
Patrick Corbin (Washington) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
NRFI - Twins/Mariners (-142)
NRFI - Cubs/Brewers (-122)
NRFI - Nationals/Rays (-120)
First 5 Run Line: Phillies -0.5 vs. Marlins (-160)
Tigers ML -110 at LA Angels
Rockies ML +172 at White Sox
Phillies ML -255 vs. Marlins
Website w/blog: https://www.podpage.com/play-me-or-fade-me-sports-betting-picks-podcast/
YTD Results - Active:
PGA Golf: 31-33 (48.4%), up 0.2789 units
WNBA: 25-29 (46.2%), down 6.2725 units
MLB Baseball: 212-193 (52.3%), down 10.8719 units
@KotaCapperKyle Results - Active:
MLB Baseball: 24-19, 55.8%, up 3.6565 units
Other: 8-10, 44.4%, down 2.40 units
Podcast Accomplishments:
NFL Prop Bets: 57.3% in 2023, up 23.1609 units
2024 CBB: Won 58.0722 units
2024 NBA Prop Bets: Won 33.92773 units
NFL Football: Hit 60.2% in the 2022 NFL Regular Season
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
NFL Prop Bets: 62.8% in 2021
NFL Football: 57.7% winning over 100 bets in 2021
MLB Baseball Team Totals: 213-159, 57.2%, won 44.37 units in 2022
Contact Me:
X: @MrActionJunkie1
Email: mractionjunkie@gmail.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Special Edition Podcast: Breaking down numbers of a listener hitting 61.7% on straight bets, 57.1% on live bets, and 38.1% on parlays
Sportshandle.com parlay hold rates:
Colorado just reported a 22.5 hold rate
Oregon 23.82% hold rate YTD
Mississippi 21.45% hold rate YTD
Illinois 19.78% hold rate YTD
Legalsportsreport.com hold rates by state:
15 states are above a lifetime hold rate of 10%, the worst state is Delaware at 18.2%. Only 4 states are below 8% with the best state, Nevada, at 5.8% hold rate.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
That's a winner! 6 PGA RD3 Rocket Mortgage Bets, 9 MLB Baseball Bets (NRFI x 3, ML x 3, F5 Run Line x 3), WNBA Bet plus 8 Bets from @KotaCapperKyle for Saturday
Support the Show Newsletter: (includes Daily MLB Player Prop Bets)
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/playmeorfademe/membership
Today's Card:
Rickie Fowler -155 over Matt Kuchar
Ben Griffin -185 over Patton Kizziri
Davis Thompson -180 over Bud Cauley
Chris Kirk -155 over Nick Hardy
Will Zalatoris -180 over Dylan Wu
Patrick Rodgers -180 over Zach Johnson
Colorado -108 at Chicago White Sox
Detroit -122 at LA Angels
Arizona -200 vs. Oakland
F5 RL: St. Louis -0.5 vs. Cincinnati (-115)
F5 RL: Philadelphia -0.5 vs. Miami (-166)
NRFI: Guardians/Royals (-113)
NRFI: Pirates/Braves (-130)
NRFI: Twins/Mariners (-130)
F5 RL: LA Dodgers -0.5 at. San Francisco (-140)
Las Vegas/Washington Under 171.5 (now 174)
Website w/blog: https://www.podpage.com/play-me-or-fade-me-sports-betting-picks-podcast/
YTD Results - Active:
PGA Golf: 31-33 (48.4%), up 0.2789 units
WNBA: 25-29 (46.2%), down 6.2725 units
MLB Baseball: 212-193 (52.3%), down 10.8719 units
@KotaCapperKyle Results - Active:
MLB Baseball: 24-19, 55.8%, up 3.6565 units
Other: 8-10, 44.4%, down 2.40 units
Podcast Accomplishments:
NFL Prop Bets: 57.3% in 2023, up 23.1609 units
2024 CBB: Won 58.0722 units
2024 NBA Prop Bets: Won 33.92773 units
NFL Football: Hit 60.2% in the 2022 NFL Regular Season
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
NFL Prop Bets: 62.8% in 2021
NFL Football: 57.7% winning over 100 bets in 2021
MLB Baseball Team Totals: 213-159, 57.2%, won 44.37 units in 2022
Contact Me:
X: @MrActionJunkie1
Email: mractionjunkie@gmail.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Time to win. Spin & Meltdown Combo, 1 PGA Bet, 2 WNBA Bets, 6 MLB Baseball Bets (NRFI x 2, ML x 3, First 5 Total) for Friday
Support the Show Newsletter: (includes Daily MLB Player Prop Bets)
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/playmeorfademe/membership
Today's Card:
Davis Thompson -125 vs. Taylor Moore
Atlanta/Connecticut Under 153.5 (now 150) - not good
LA Sparks/Phoenix Under 165.5 (now 169.5)
Philadelphia ML -245 vs. Miami
Colorado ML -102 at Chicago
Detroit ML -115 at LA Angels
NRFI: Twins/mariners (-138)
NRFI: Dodgers/Giants (-140)
First 5 Total: Padres/Red Sox Over 4.5 (-140)
Website w/blog: https://www.podpage.com/play-me-or-fade-me-sports-betting-picks-podcast/
YTD Results - Active:
PGA Golf: 30-33 (47.6%), down 0.5211 units
WNBA: 24-28 (46.2%), down 6.1816 units
MLB Baseball: 208-191 (52.1%), down 11.4333 units
@KotaCapperKyle Results - Active:
MLB Baseball: 24-19, 55.8%, up 3.6565 units
Other: 8-10, 44.4%, down 2.40 units
Podcast Accomplishments:
NFL Prop Bets: 57.3% in 2023, up 23.1609 units
2024 CBB: Won 58.0722 units
2024 NBA Prop Bets: Won 33.92773 units
NFL Football: Hit 60.2% in the 2022 NFL Regular Season
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
NFL Prop Bets: 62.8% in 2021
NFL Football: 57.7% winning over 100 bets in 2021
MLB Baseball Team Totals: 213-159, 57.2%, won 44.37 units in 2022
Contact Me:
X: @MrActionJunkie1
Email: mractionjunkie@gmail.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Timberwolves Draft Grade: A+. 4 PGA RD1 Bets, WNBA 1H Total, 5 MLB Baseball Bets (NRFI x 3, ML x 2) plus 7 Bets from @KotaCapperKyle for Thursday
Support the Show Newsletter: (includes Daily MLB Player Prop Bets)
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/playmeorfademe/membership
Today's Card:
Davis Thompson -122 vs. Taylor Moore
Keith Mitchell +100 vs. Stephen Jaeger
Matt Wallace -110 vs. Nicolai Hojgaard
Will Zalatoris -125 vs. Ben Griffin
Minnesota/Dallas 1H Under 82.5
Detroit ML -166 at LA Angels
NRFI: Cubs/Giants (-150)
NRFI: Braves/White Sox (-130)
NRFI: Rangers/Orioles (-128)
Arizona ML vs. Minnesota (-112)
Website w/blog: https://www.podpage.com/play-me-or-fade-me-sports-betting-picks-podcast/
YTD Results - Active:
PGA Golf: 27-33 (45.0%), down 3.2635 units
WNBA: 24-27 (47.1%), down 5.1816 units
MLB Baseball: 207-187 (52.5%), down 8.1 units
@KotaCapperKyle Results - Active:
MLB Baseball: 24-19, 55.8%, up 3.6565 units
Other: 8-10, 44.4%, down 2.40 units
Podcast Accomplishments:
NFL Prop Bets: 57.3% in 2023, up 23.1609 units
2024 CBB: Won 58.0722 units
2024 NBA Prop Bets: Won 33.92773 units
NFL Football: Hit 60.2% in the 2022 NFL Regular Season
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
NFL Prop Bets: 62.8% in 2021
NFL Football: 57.7% winning over 100 bets in 2021
MLB Baseball Team Totals: 213-159, 57.2%, won 44.37 units in 2022
Contact Me:
X: @MrActionJunkie1
Email: mractionjunkie@gmail.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
MLB Baseball ONLY Day (NRFI x 2, First 5 Run Line, ML x 3) plus 5 MLB Baseball Bets from @KotaCapperKyle for Wednesday
Support the Show Newsletter: (includes Daily MLB Player Prop Bets)
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/playmeorfademe/membership
Today's Card:
NRFI: Mariners/Rays (-125)
NRFI: Dodgers/White Sox (+115)
First 5 RL: Baltimore -0.5 vs. Cleveland (-130)
ML: Yankees -142 at Mets
ML: Royals -215 vs. Marlins
ML: Athletics at Angels (+106)
Website w/blog: https://www.podpage.com/play-me-or-fade-me-sports-betting-picks-podcast/
YTD Results - Active:
College Baseball: 13-6 (68.4%), up 4.5078 units
PGA Golf: 27-33 (45.0%), down 3.2635 units
WNBA: 24-27 (47.1%), down 5.1816 units
NHL Playoffs: 14-17 (45.2%), down 4.66881 units
MLB Baseball: 205-183 (52.8%), down 5.3651 units
@KotaCapperKyle Results - Active:
MLB Baseball: 24-19, 55.8%, up 3.6565 units
Other: 8-10, 44.4%, down 2.40 units
Podcast Accomplishments:
NFL Prop Bets: 57.3% in 2023, up 23.1609 units
2024 CBB: Won 58.0722 units
2024 NBA Prop Bets: Won 33.92773 units
NFL Football: Hit 60.2% in the 2022 NFL Regular Season
Longest Winning Streak - 13 days in February 2024, 61-23, 72.6%, up 30.7103 units (all 1-unit bets)
NFL Prop Bets: 62.8% in 2021
NFL Football: 57.7% winning over 100 bets in 2021
MLB Baseball Team Totals: 213-159, 57.2%, won 44.37 units in 2022
Contact Me:
X: @MrActionJunkie1
Email: mractionjunkie@gmail.com
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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