555 episodes

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

NAB Morning Call Phil Dobbie

    • Business
    • 5.0 • 2 Ratings

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers

    ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers

    Friday 25th November 2022
    NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 
    Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
    As you might expect, with Thanksgiving still going on in the US and everyone else watching the world cup it’s been a quiet session overnight. Still. NAB’s David de Garis joins in today to talk through the ECB minutes, Germany’s IFO numbers, the Riksbank’s interest rate decision and China’s likely response to record COVID numbers. There’s also a no-spoiler guarantee, for those recording the soccer to watch later. 

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    • 13 min
    Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil

    Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil

    Thursday 24th November 2022
    NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 
    Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
    There’s a higher risk appetite again this morning, driven by the release of the FOMC minutes which NAB’s Gavin Friend says more or less confirmed that the Fed will lift rates by 50 bps at the December meeting. Before that, the response was to mixed data, with PMIs weaker than anticipated but strong US durable goods orders. There’s also an expectation that Russian supplies of oil might be higher than anticipated as the G7 and EU seem set to set the cap around $65-70, well above the cost of production. That might be good for inflation but a disaster in tackling Russia’s war effort, which has seen a barrage of cruise missile on Kiev overnight. 

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    • 18 min
    One more pivot before Thanksgiving

    One more pivot before Thanksgiving

    Wednesday 23rd November 2022
    NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 
    Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
    America will be sitting down to a Turkey dinner tomorrow, but before that markets seem to be determined to spread hope of a pivot from the Fed – or at the very least a slowdown in rates. That’s helped equities overnight and whilst treasury yields are falling. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s unlikely the Fed will be happy to see this sort of price action, it isn’t the message they are trying to send to markets. Less attention sems to be given to rising COVID numbers in China, which are now close to their all-time high in April and are resulting n more lockdowns in major industrial areas. And the RBA’s Philip Lowe warned about the danger of rising wages yesterday, whilst also suggesting interest rates may not return to the lows we saw before the pandemic.

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    • 16 min
    Oil, more or less?

    Oil, more or less?

    Markets are still concerned about lockdowns in China, evidenced by the fall in US equities and a 2% drop in Apple’s share price. Oil has also been falling, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the prospect of an increase in production by OPEC+ next month pushed prices lower for a while before people started asking, ‘why would they do that?’. The argument was it was to compensate for lost Russian oil as sanctions hit, with news reports that G7 and the EU might this week agree on the price cap beyond which they will not ship or insure Russian oil, irrespective of the destination. There’s also discussion today on the fall in German producer prices, what the RBNZ will do tomorrow and what the RBA’s Philip Lowe will say over dinner tonight.
    Incidentally, today NAB trade donate the proceeds of today’s trading revenue to First Nations Foundation, to support the financial literacy of Indigenous communities. Or you can make a donation. Go to www.nabtrade.com.au/charityday for more information.

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    • 16 min
    A rare dull day

    A rare dull day

    Monday 21st November 2022
    NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 
    Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
    Friday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty years. Normally this would be a clear signal of an impending recession, he says, but we’ve been seeing these signs for most of the year and yet the economy remains surprisingly resilient. The last week has also seen significant falls in oil prices – we look at why. And look ahead to the RBNZ this week. But it’s likely to be a quiet week, with the US celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday. 

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    • 16 min
    Tighter than ever

    Tighter than ever

    Friday 18th November 2022
    NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 
    Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
    Another 32 thousand Australians had a job in October, making the labour market the tightest it’s been in decades. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this cements in the expectation that the RBA will lift rates by at least 25 basis points in December, continuing on in the first meetings of the new year. There’s less expectation of the Fed slowing down as well, thanks to James Bullard suggesting interest rates could rise as high as seven percent. That’s hit equities and pushed bond yields higher. In the UK the new Chancellor managed to issue a budget without a massive market response. Today Japan’s inflation numbers won’t be enough to convince Kuroda to move from the path of his ultra-easy policy but, as Ken, suggests, that could change when he moves on early next year.

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    • 16 min

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