168 episodes
The Julia La Roche Show Julia La Roche
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- Business
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead.
In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.
Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment.
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno
00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class
4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble
5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year?
8:00 Market is massively overvalued
9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment
11:32 Home prices
13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now
15:23 Long-term yields might not come down
16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy
17:27 Gold
20:00 Erosion of the middle class -
#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors
Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged.
In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past.
Links:
IVOL: https://ivoletf.com/
Quadratic Capital: https://quadraticllc.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/nancy__davis
0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis
0:59 FOMC reaction
1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off
2:30 Volatility, explained
3:15 Fed interest rate policy
5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in.
5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios
7:36 Opportunity in rates
10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF)
15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you
18:04 Macro picture
19:47 Inflation protected bond market
22:45 Inverted yield curve
24:13 Bonds a good buy?
25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election?
26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation?
29:03 Nancy's background
32:40 Parting thoughts -
#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
twitter.com/biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts -
#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage
Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets.
He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing.
He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
The Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy
2:55 Higher interest rates
4:03 Rate outlook
7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury
10:18 The death of leverage
12:00 Confidence
16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate
20:25 A qualitative recession
25:15 Election year
27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior
32:30 Goodbye -
#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American
Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.”
The Algebra of Wealth book: https://www.amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/0593714024
0:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway
1:04 Macro picture of the economy
3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally
5:32 The Algebra of Wealth
7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent
9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification
9:56 Galloway went broke twice
12:25 Divorce
13:30 Having children
15:35 Myth of balance
17:00 Raised by a single mom
21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American
25:31 Investing and harvesting
27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young
24:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses
32:32 DEI
38:15 Masculinity
50:00 Parting thoughts -
#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does
Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world.
He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed.
Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/
00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show
0:53 Simple is better
1:50 The five Ds
2:50 Does the Fed matter?
5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World
8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023
10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity
13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes
14:00 Geopolitics and markets
15:55 When in doubt, zoom out
17:13 Portfolio construction
19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop
20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines
22:40 Are markets healthy?
26:00 Outlook for the U.S.
26:50 Gold
29:20 Parting thoughts