Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society. In this episode, Justin interviews Roger Spitz on a variety of ERM and futurist topics, including his career path and the thought leadership he provides today. They discuss unpredictability, uncertainty, and why the future is not clearly seen. They discuss the importance of agility and how improv prepares for it. Roger shares his thoughts on how ERM practitioners can be ready for the unknown. Listen for Roger's thoughts on antifragility, being anticipatory, and agility. Key Takeaways: [:01] About RIMS and RIMScast. [:16] About this episode of RIMScast. We will be joined by Roger Spitz, Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute, President of Techistential, and the opening keynote speaker for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026, which will be held November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. [:48] Before we get to our interview… [:50] Webinars: On Nov. 5th, Riskonnect returns to deliver the session "Signal Over Noise: Smarter Risk Analytics." [:59] Origami Risk will return on December 10th to present "Managing Insurance Programs at Scale: What Complex Portfolios Require." This session was rescheduled from October, and if you were registered for that one, you are automatically registered for the new date in December. [1:15] We will close out the year with two webinars from the RIMS Advocacy and External Affairs Committees. On November 10th, we will host a session about the "Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and Program: an update on Federal Developments." [1:31] On December 3rd, we've got "Third-Party Litigation Financing: What Nuclear and Other Verdicts Mean for the Industry and Your Bottom Line." Find all webinars at RIMS.org/webinars. [1:41] I've got a link on this episode's show notes to the virtual workshops for the RIMS-CRMP. [1:47] Special announcement: On December 3rd and 4th, 2026, from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., you can prepare for the RIMS-CRMP exam with the RIMS 2026 President, Manny Padilla, at St. John's University at 101 Astor Place in New York City. [2:04] The exam application fee is included if you register for this prep course. Visit RIMS.org/Certification and the link on this episode's show notes. [2:14] The Q3 Edition of RIMS Risk Management Magazine is now available at RMMagazine.com. Check it out! [2:21] RIMS on YouTube! RIMS is back on YouTube. Our handle is @RIMSOfficialChannel. We've got plenty of videos there, including RIMScast, RIMScast Canada video podcasts, and other informative and entertaining content from RIMS. Subscribe to the channel today! [2:39] On with the Show! The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held on November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. Learn more and register at RIMS.org/ERM2026. Our guest today will be kicking things off at the conference. [2:58] He is Roger Spitz, the Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute and the President of Techistential. He joins us today to provide a preview of his keynote, "Black Swans and Golden Geese: Risks and Returns in the Era of Unpredictability." I'm stoked, and I want to get right to it! [3:18] Interview: Roger Spitz, Welcome to RIMScast! [3:44] Roger says he's probably the only futurist with a background in M&A. He started as a chartered accountant (ACA) in the UK and moved into investment banking. He was Global Head of M&A for BNP Paribas, advising boards, CEOs, and investors on acquisitions and divestments. [4:19] Roger was based in London. In 2017, the CEO asked him to rebuild the M&A Tech practice in San Francisco. He promised himself when he came here that he would go down the rabbit hole of change. [4:34] Roger did a lot of microcourses on complexity systems, foresight, even stand-up comedy, and all kinds of things, looking at change from different vantage points. He felt futures was an interesting umbrella for that. [4:54] Roger felt that the way even the most sophisticated, well-paid business leaders think about the world as a linear, predictable, stable, controllable set of assumptions was not only wrong, but that the cost of relying on those assumptions would increase. [5:12] Roger says, after a few years, he decided to leave investment banking and spend full-time thinking about strategic foresight. He wrote a book. He set up a practice, Disruptive Futures Institute. At the time, it was esoteric to think about unpredictability, but today he's pretty busy. [5:47] Roger says that amongst the microcourses he took, one vantage point for understanding change was stand-up comedy, especially improv. He did several courses on improv to think about the surprise element and change from that perspective. It's how he got to where he is. [6:43] Justin says he did stand-up as well. He understands the rush of it, but there is spontaneity to it. He didn't do improv as a class, but he did stand-up for a year in Manhattan. In stand-up, you learn a lot about yourself and what you can endure. It's just you and the audience. [7:22] Roger says he learned about himself and his confidence. He also learned what features cause surprise, but also that with the right tools, mindset, and ways of seeing the world, there's nothing wrong with surprise and unpredictability. You can take it and run with it. It's "yes, and." [7:48] Roger says if you don't have that toolkit or operating system, improv might feel a little bit uncomfortable or surprising. Roger took improv not only to learn about himself, but also to learn what toolkits are effective in these kinds of environments that are more prone to surprise. [8:40] Roger says, once you have a certain way of seeing the world, or mindset, it's in you. You're not going to unsee it or no longer think of "yes, and," or other reflexes. It's intuitive. Some exposure to improv is a very useful tool. [9:08] Justin mentions SNL UK. Roger says he is South African, the home of Trevor Noah, but spent more than 20 years in the UK. [9:51] Justin mentions we will see Roger on November 19th, kicking things off for us in Columbus, Ohio, for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026. The keynote is titled "Black Swans and Golden Geese: Risks and Returns in the Era of Unpredictability." [10:07] Justin asks: How should risk professionals rethink the traditional relationship between risk and return when organizations are operating in conditions of deep uncertainty? [10:22] Roger mentions two aspects: One is how one thinks about deep uncertainty, and two is what that means. [10:37] Roger starts with the foundations. The 100-year-old distinction between risk and uncertainty is helpful for environments which are relatively stable and predictable. You can get a sense of the probability of risk. Uncertainty is not as well understood. [11:26] Roger says the World Uncertainty Index is through the roof since the 1900s. Uncertainty is conflated with other things and is not always clearly understood. Conventional uncertainty is that you know the possible outcomes; you're just not sure about the "probabilization." [11:49] Roger continues: Who will win the elections? Will there be a recession? You know the question. There's an answer. It's pretty straightforward. [12:01] In deep uncertainty, you don't know the potential outcomes. You don't know the probabilities. You can't put a hierarchy on them, or if you did, they wouldn't necessarily be in agreement. You're not taking into account how these possible outcomes might interact. [12:27] Roger says you're not taking into account the next-order implications, nor is there agreement or alignment on how you might mitigate them or whether they even exist. [12:39] What are the exact implications- not just geopolitical, but technology, geofinance, societal- if China becomes the number one in the world in a dominant way, which is very possible? [12:54] What happens with longevity? What is longevity? Is it 200 years? No longer diseases? No longer aging? What happens if you work and live in space? What happens with singularity diversity if it happens? Once you put all that together, think about how they might interact. [13:10] Roger says that's deeply uncertain. Therefore, we wrote a detailed paper with the Head of Foresight of AXA on the topic on Risk.Net. We're looking at something more akin to unpredictability. [13:32] Roger says unpredictability is not the same as uncertainty. If you take uncertainty in an environment that is non-linear, emergent, with unknown unknowns, you need trial and error, playbooks, predict-and-act modeling; you don't have a known answer. [14:05] That is very different from the predict-and-act frameworks and modeling that a lot of the risk and return industry relies on. Not only is unpredictability a key feature of that, but the outcomes can be disproportionate, both for risk and returns. [14:31] Putting all that together, Roger says the most important thing is that you need to shift the mindset from a risk "probabilization" or return calculation to outcomes. What are the potential outcomes in terms of magnitude? [14:48] How do we think about what can lead to either breakdown or breakthroughs? What are the features that might make these outcomes potentially very sizable and that might be breakdowns or breakthroughs? [15:07] That's not the same as conventional predict-and-act modeling. It's not the same as scenario analysis, where you ask "what if something" and you have two edge cases. [15:19] Roger says my thesis is that what we're talking about is a constant environment, not a few edge cases or exceptions you need to think about the "what if" for. You don't really know. It's a constant. It's systemic. And therefore, it's business as usual, as opposed to an edge case. [15:40] A Quick Break! Many fantastic RIMS events are coming up in 2026 and 2027. The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held in Columbus, Ohio on November 19th and 20th. Our guest today, Roger Spitz, is the keynote. We can't wait to see you