Atlanta Real Estate Report Podcast

Exploring Atlanta's dynamic real estate market
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Atlanta Real Estate Report Podcast

Podcast + newsletter that explores Atlanta's dynamic real estate market atlantarealestate.substack.com

  1. 03/18/2023

    Taking a sip from the Wall Street “Fire Hydrant”

    This segment first appeared in the 12/30/22 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report… Taking a sip from the Wall Street “fire hydrant” * Earnings announcements * Impact * Announcements impacts stock prices in the short term * EPS growth rate (predictablity and sustainability) impacts price in the longer term * Investors focus on… * Reported vs Expected (Concensus) — by “The Street” * Guidance — provided to Wall St analysts by company management * Financial Statements * Quarterly * Annual * Investor Relations * Earnings Calls (live + recorded) * Investor Presentations * Research Reports * Wall Street Analysts * Company and industry / sector specific * Strategy (asset allocation, market outlooks, etc.) * Economic forecasts (consumer spending, etc.) * Thematic (innovation, etc.) * Company-sponsored content * Third-party (Market Watch, Seeking Alpha, etc.) * Financial journalism * Barron’s, Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times, Forbes, Fortune, Wall Street Journal, etc. * Free vs. subscription-based * Bloggers, vloggers & podcasters * Social media * Twitter — preferred platform for journalists * YouTube — long-form content; interviews This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    15 min

  2. 03/18/2023

    Monetary & Fiscal Policy

    This segment first appeared in my November 2022 podcast entitled, Imperfect Storm: Cat 5 Housing Market Cools to a Cat 3… Monetary Policy Refers to the actions of central banks to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives such as price stability, full employment, and stable economic growth. “We have both the tools we need and the resolve to bring back price stability,” Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve A decline in rent prices is 'well out' from where we are now, says Fed Chair Powell… Fiscal Policy Refers to the tax and spending policies of the federal government. Fiscal policy decisions are determined by the Congress and the Administration; the Fed plays no role in determining fiscal policy. The Fed The U.S. Congress established maximum employment and price stability as the macroeconomic objectives for the Federal Reserve (aka, The Fed); they are sometimes referred to as the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The monetary policymaking body within the Federal Reserve System is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC currently has eight scheduled meetings per year, during which it reviews economic and financial developments and determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy. In reviewing the economic outlook, the FOMC considers how the current and projected paths for fiscal policy might affect key macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product growth, employment, and inflation. In this way, fiscal policy has an indirect effect on the conduct of monetary policy through its influence on the aggregate economy and the economic outlook. For example, if federal tax and spending programs are projected to boost economic growth, the Federal Reserve would assess how those programs would affect its key macroeconomic objectives--maximum employment and price stability--and make appropriate adjustments to its monetary policy tools. Source: Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    18 min

  3. 03/18/2023

    How Public Companies Impact Main Street

    This segment first appeared in the 12/30/22 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report… How do these Wall Street companies impact Main Street? * Access to capital * M&A activity * Economic impact * Wealth effect Access to Capital * By tapping equity & debt markets * Use for expansion, R&D (innovation) Going public in a bear market… Timing is everything… Mergers & Acquisitions * Public + private combos create a liquidity event at the local level (e.g., Green Brick + Providence Group, 2011) * Public + public combos seek to create diversification, scale and/or synergy (e.g., Home Depot + HD Supply, 2020) — MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) * Especially significant in CRE market (size) * Primarily REITs and public companies like Blackstone and Blackrock * Private equity, pension funds and foreign investors Economic Impact * Huge multiplier effect * Residential Housing: 15-18% of GDP ($3.9 - 4.7 trillion) + 33% of consumer spending (Source: NAHP + Hoya Capital) * Commercial Real Estate: $1.2 trillion in GDP + $418.7 billion in salaries and wages (Source: NAIOP) * Commercial Real Estate: 8.5 million jobs * Construction employment = 7.6 million jobs (3.1M residential) * Construction jobs: ~300,000 to 400,000 per month NOTE: Economic impact and employment data are for the entire real estate industry, which includes both public and private companies Wealth Effect * Equities = ownership = wealth creation * Bear markets lead to wealth destruction which, in turn, can lead to demand destruction (including real estate and related sub-sectors) * Stock prices affect consumer confidence which, in turn, impacts consumer spending * Most 401(k) plans invest in stocks Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    46 min

  4. 03/18/2023

    Understanding the Housing Sector Ecosystem

    This segment first appeared in the 12/30/22 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report… Let’s look at some publicly-traded companies in the housing sector… Publicly-traded companies are the “fulcrum” between Wall Street and Main Street. They allow us to participate in the long-term growth of the real estate industry with a much lower investment than owning real property directly — and, in the case of rental property, with less headaches. They also allow us to focus our investment capital on very specific sectors and segments of the industry. > > > Click on the company names below to access their investor relations pages… * Home Builders — DR Horton + Century Communities + Lennar + Pulte Group + Meritage + Taylor Morrison + Green Brick Partners + Toll Brothers + Beazer + LGI * Banks — Truist + Bank of America + Wells Fargo + Synovus + Ameris + United Community + JP Morgan Chase + Regions + South State + OZK * Mortgage — Rocket + United Wholesale + Loan Depot * Residential Brokerage — Anywhere + Berkshire Hathaway + Compass + + RE/MAX * iBuyers & Hybrids — eXp + Offerpad + Opendoor + Redfin + Zillow * Single-Family Home Rental — American Homes 4 Rent + Invitation Homes * Commercial — CBRE + Cushman & Wakefield + JLL + Colliers * Building Supplies — A.O. Smith + Carrier + Owens Corning + Home Depot + Mohawk Industries + Sherwin Williams * Home Furnishings — RH + Sonos + Lazy Boy + Sealy + Wayfair + Williams-Sonoma * Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) — SPDR® S&P® Homebuilders ETF + iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF + Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF + Hoya Capital Housing ETF * Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) — Separate topic / future episode * Public REITs own 535,000 properties across the U.S. as of year-end 2020. * Equity and mortgage REITs combined own roughly $3 trillion in gross real estate assets. * Private REITs own an additional $1.5 trillion in gross assets bringing the total REIT ownership value to $4.5 trillion in the U.S. as of year-end 2021. * U.S. REITs contributed the equivalent of an estimated 3.2 million full-time jobs to the economy in 2021 generating $229 billion of labor income. * REIT activities resulted in the distribution of $92.3 billion of dividend income in 2021. * Source: Nareit NOTES: Keep in mind that this a small sample of the PUBLIC companies that operate in the real estate industry. As such, they are some of the largest in their respective categories. These are HUGE companies. There are also thousands of PRIVATE companies (typically much smaller) that also contribute greatly to the real estate economy, especially in the way of builders, brokerage companies and mortgage companies. Clicking on the company names will take you to their investor relations pages. Look for press releases, investor presentations, conference calls and webcasts. The names listed under “Home Builders” and “Banks” are the Top 10 publicly traded companies operating in the Atlanta region for their respective categories. Note that these rankings may change from year to year. The real estate “ecosystem” is dynamic and really interesting… > > > Click on the images below to enlarge the charts… Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    32 min

  5. 03/18/2023

    Using Charts to Gain Perspective

    This segment first appeared in the 12/30/22 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report… Let’s look at a few charts to gain some perspective… The sheer size of the equity markets makes them a powerful force when it comes to their economic impact on Main Street… > > > Click on the images below to enlarge the charts… In the chart above, note the move from the GFC low in 2009 to the pandemic high of late 2021. Equity market cap rose from about 50% to almost 200% of GDP. That is one heck of a run! Stock prices and the business cycle… Stock prices and building permits are leading indicators… Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    27 min

  6. 03/18/2023

    Building Equity via Public Companies

    This segment first appeared in the 12/30/22 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report… Discussion Outline * What defines a “public” company? * They go from private to public via an Initial Public Offering (IPO) * Securities trade in the public markets (NYSE, NASDAQ) * Business and financial information disclosed to the public on a regular basis * Ways to invest in publicly traded companies * Stocks = Equity = Owner = Wealth Creation * Bonds = Debt = Creditor = Income Generation * Derivatives (options & futures) — hedging, speculation and income generation * Investing vs. Trading (own vs rent; local vs tourist) * Many people own public companies directly in the form of individual stocks and/or participate indirectly via ETFs, mutual funds and 401k plans * Typically, larger than private companies * Regional, national or international footprint * Private companies tend to be local, especially in the residential RE space * Continuous and real time “price discovery” while the markets are open * Subtle but important point * Makes them highly liquid * Contrast this to direct ownership of real property * Highly efficient vs highly inefficient pricing (objective vs subjective) * This is the key difference between stocks and real property! * Stock prices are a leading indicator of… * Economic activity at the index level (DJIA, S&P 500, etc.) * Industry trends at the industry level (banks, home builders, etc.) * A company’s outlook at the stock-specific level Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    24 min

  7. 03/14/2023

    In the Eye of the "Perfect" Storm

    This segment first appeared in the January 14 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report — ATL Housing Market: What can we expect in 2023 and beyond? Secular View: BUY ATL! * BUY ATL for the long-term (3+ years) * Perfect Storm (pandemic created a “Cat 5”) * RE market is hyper local * City of ATL is a city of neighborhoods * Metro ATL is a region of cities / communities / subdivisions (suburbs & exurbs) * Population of 21-county region = 6.1 million * Population of City of Atlanta = 500,000 * SFHs offer the best appreciation potential See also… * Perfect Storm — June 2018 * Game-Changers: 10 Projects that are Transforming ATL Right Now — 2019 * How long will the ATL housing boom continue? — Dec 2020 * Things are heating up along ATL's "Ring of Fire" — Jan 2021 * Microsoft: Generational Game-Changer for ATL — May 2021 * Imperfect Storm: Cat 5 Housing Market Cools to a Cat 3 — Nov 2022 * Wall Street Meets Main Street — Dec 2022 Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    19 min

  8. 03/14/2023

    Are we in a housing bubble?

    This segment first appeared in the January 14 episode of the Atlanta Real Estate Report — ATL Housing Market: What can we expect in 2023 and beyond? “For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction.” — Sir Isaac Netwon (1666) Cyclical View: Bubblicious Demand Pull Forward in the Local Housing Market * The House Price Index in the ATL MSA bottomed in Q2/2012 at 132.14. At the end of Q3/2022, the index stood at 344.83 (~16% per year) * The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose ~13% per year during that same time (ATL: +3% vs USA) * From Q2/2012 to Q2/2020 (start of pandemic) the ATL index increased 9.5% per year (132.14 to 232.25) * From Q2/2020 (start of pandemic) to Q3/2022 the ATL index increased 24.5% per year (232.25 to 344.83) * What does “normalization” mean? * Reversion to the mean The Fed Factor (still weighing on the markets) While speaking at a Brookings Institute event on Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the run-up in home prices during the Pandemic Housing Boom qualifies a "housing bubble." “Coming out of the pandemic, [mortgage] rates were very low, people wanted to buy houses, they wanted to get out of the cities and buy houses in the suburbs because of COVID. So you really had a housing bubble, you had housing prices going up [at] very unsustainable levels and overheating and that kind of thing," Powell said. "So, now the housing market will go through the other side of that and hopefully come out in a better place between supply and demand." The Pandemic Housing Boom did indeed see housing fundamentals get out-of-whack. According to Moody's Analytics, the average U.S. housing market was "overvalued" by 1% in the second quarter of 2019. Through the second quarter of 2022, the average U.S. housing market was "overvalued" around 25%. @LanceLambert — Fortune Magazine, December 3, 2023 Wealth Effect Over the past two years, Americans who own their homes have gained more than $6 trillion in housing wealth. To be clear, that doesn’t mean home builders have transferred to buyers $6 trillion worth of new housing, or that existing homeowners have made $6 trillion in kitchen and bathroom upgrades. Rather, most of this money has been created by the simple fact that housing, in short supply and high demand across America, has appreciated at record pace during the pandemic. Millions of people — broadly spread among the 65 percent of American households who own their home — have gained a share of this windfall. Source: New York Times (May 2022) Home Prices Roll Over Atlanta Real Estate Report by ATLsherpa is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit atlantarealestate.substack.com

    22 min
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    Podcast + newsletter that explores Atlanta's dynamic real estate market atlantarealestate.substack.com

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    • Creator
      Exploring Atlanta's dynamic real estate market
    • Years Active
      2022 - 2023
    • Episodes
      13
    • Rating
      Clean
    • Copyright
      © ExploreATL
    • Show Website
      Atlanta Real Estate Report Podcast

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