Prediction Market News

Quiet. Please
Prediction Market News

Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success. For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    Prediction Markets Surge: Shifting Odds, Market Manipulation, and Long-Term Forecasting

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing. **Recent Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing focus on long-term predictions, particularly in technological advancements. Metaculus has seen steady engagement in markets related to quantum computing and other technological milestones, indicating a growing interest in forecasting future technological developments. This trend suggests that prediction markets are not only useful for short-term political and economic forecasting but also for long-term strategic planning. In conclusion, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Polymarket leading the way. The recent US Presidential Elections have highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting, but concerns about market manipulation and regulation remain. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  2. 6 DAYS AGO

    Prediction Markets Surge Amid Political and Economic Forecasts

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing. **Recent Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing focus on long-term predictions, particularly in technological advancements. Metaculus has seen steady engagement in markets related to quantum computing and other technological milestones, indicating a growing interest in forecasting future technological developments. This trend suggests that prediction markets are not only useful for short-term political and economic forecasting but also for long-term strategic planning. In conclusion, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Polymarket leading the way. The recent US Presidential Elections have highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting, but concerns about market manipulation and regulation remain. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  3. JAN 3

    **Prediction Markets Surge, Raise Concerns Over Accuracy and Manipulation**

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing. **Recent Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing focus on long-term predictions, particularly in technological advancements. Metaculus has seen steady engagement in markets related to quantum computing and other technological milestones, indicating a growing interest in forecasting future technological developments. This trend suggests that prediction markets are not only useful for short-term political and economic forecasting but also for long-term strategic planning. In conclusion, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Polymarket leading the way. The recent US Presidential Elections have highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting, but concerns about market manipulation and regulation remain. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  4. JAN 1

    Prediction Markets Surge: Surging Activity, Shifting Odds, and Emerging Trends

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing. **Recent Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing focus on long-term predictions, particularly in technological advancements. Metaculus has seen steady engagement in markets related to quantum computing and other technological milestones, indicating a growing interest in forecasting future technological developments. This trend suggests that prediction markets are not only useful for short-term political and economic forecasting but also for long-term strategic planning. In conclusion, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Polymarket leading the way. The recent US Presidential Elections have highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting, but concerns about market manipulation and regulation remain. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  5. 12/30/2024

    Prediction Markets Surge Ahead of 2024 Elections

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, particularly with the 2024 US Presidential Elections drawing near. Major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus have experienced notable price movements, reflecting changing perceptions and forecasts. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: With over $2.7 billion in bets placed on the 2024 US Presidential Elections, Polymarket remains the largest prediction market platform. It has seen a surge in trading volumes, with July 2024 reaching $380 million, up from $100 million in June. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits[2][4]. 2. **PredictIt**: Although smaller in volume compared to Polymarket, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts[2][5]. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress[2][5]. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement[2][5]. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions[2][5]. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing[2][5]. **Analysis of Market Shifts:** The past 48 hours have seen surprising changes in market probabilities, particularly in response to political developments. For example, Polymarket’s odds for Trump increased significantly after a strong debate performance, while PredictIt’s markets on economic indicators shifted in response to new data releases. These changes indicate that prediction markets are highly responsive to new information and can provide valuable insights into future events. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing adoption of prediction markets as a source of information. Unlike traditional polls and pundits, prediction markets create incentives for people with information to share what they know, leading to more accurate forecasts. For instance, Polymarket accurately predicted the electoral outcome hours before the media called it, demonstrating the potential of prediction markets to disrupt the media landscape[4]. As these platforms continue to grow, they may challenge traditional news cycles and provide a more decentralized and accurate source of information.

    4 min
  6. 12/27/2024

    "Prediction Markets Surge: Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus See Significant Activity"

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing. **Recent Market Shifts:** The past 48 hours have seen surprising changes in the prediction markets. On Polymarket, the odds for the 2024 US Presidential Elections have fluctuated significantly, reflecting the dynamic nature of political events. PredictIt has seen shifts in economic forecasts, particularly in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions, which may indicate changing perceptions of economic stability. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing focus on long-term predictions, particularly in technological advancements. Metaculus has seen steady engagement in markets related to quantum computing and other technological milestones, indicating a growing interest in forecasting future technological developments. This trend suggests that prediction markets are not only useful for short-term political and economic forecasting but also for long-term strategic planning. In conclusion, prediction markets are gaining traction, with Polymarket leading the way. The recent US Presidential Elections have highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting, but concerns about market manipulation and regulation remain. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  7. 12/25/2024

    **Prediction Markets Forecast Shifts Ahead of 2024 US Elections**

    **Prediction Markets Surge Ahead of 2024 US Elections** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, particularly with the 2024 US Presidential Elections drawing near. Major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus have experienced notable price movements, reflecting changing perceptions and forecasts. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: With over $2.7 billion in bets placed on the 2024 US Presidential Elections, Polymarket remains the largest prediction market platform. It has seen a surge in trading volumes, with July 2024 reaching $380 million, up from $100 million in June. 2. **PredictIt**: Although smaller in volume compared to Polymarket, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. 3. **Metaculus**: Known for its wide range of prediction categories, Metaculus continues to attract users interested in forecasting various events, from political outcomes to scientific breakthroughs. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators, such as inflation rates and GDP growth, have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. **Analysis of Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the potential for prediction markets to disrupt the media landscape. Platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus are creating new structures to surface information in real time, rewarding accuracy over sensationalism and prioritizing actionable data over attention-grabbing headlines. This decentralized information ecosystem poses a direct challenge to traditional news cycles, offering a more accurate and transparent way to predict future events. The success of prediction markets in forecasting the 2024 presidential election, particularly Polymarket, has highlighted their potential for accurate forecasting. According to Michael Jones, a University of Cincinnati economist, the success of blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket shows the value and utility of using blockchain technologies beyond investments. As these platforms continue to grow, they could significantly impact the media landscape in 2025.

    4 min
  8. 12/23/2024

    Prediction Markets Surge: Shifting Odds, Economic Forecasts, and Emerging Trends

    **Prediction Markets Surge: Latest Developments and Emerging Trends** Prediction markets have seen significant activity in recent weeks, with major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus experiencing notable price movements. Here’s a snapshot of the current top markets by volume and an analysis of the most interesting shifts in the past 48 hours. **Top Markets by Volume:** 1. **Polymarket**: The platform has seen a surge in trading volumes, particularly in the 2024 US Presidential Elections poll, which has over $2.7 billion worth of bets placed. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning the election, significantly higher than most polls and pundits[2]. 2. **PredictIt**: While specific volume data is not available, PredictIt has been active with markets on political events and economic indicators. Markets on inflation rates and GDP growth have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts[2]. 3. **Metaculus**: This platform focuses on long-term predictions and has seen steady engagement in markets related to technological advancements and global events. Predictions on technological milestones, like the development of quantum computing, have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress[2]. **Notable Price Movements:** - **Polymarket**: The 2024 US Presidential Elections market has seen significant price movements, with probabilities shifting rapidly in response to political developments. For instance, a candidate’s odds might increase following a strong debate performance or decrease after a controversial statement[2]. - **PredictIt**: Markets on economic indicators have shown notable price movements, reflecting changing economic forecasts. This includes shifts in inflation rates and GDP growth predictions[2]. - **Metaculus**: Predictions on technological milestones have seen shifts in probabilities, indicating changing perceptions of technological progress. This includes predictions on the development of quantum computing[2]. **Analysis of Market Shifts:** In the past 48 hours, Polymarket has seen surprising changes in the odds for the US Presidential Elections. The shift towards Trump has been notable, with his chances increasing significantly. This might indicate a growing confidence in his campaign among bettors. However, recent investigations have uncovered evidence of "wash trading" on Polymarket, which could skew the accuracy of the platform's predictions and raise concerns about market manipulation[2]. **Emerging Trend:** One emerging trend worth watching is the potential for prediction markets to disrupt the media landscape. Platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus are creating new structures to surface information in real time, rewarding accuracy over sensationalism and prioritizing actionable data over attention-grabbing headlines. This decentralized information ecosystem poses a direct challenge to the pundit class and traditional news cycles, offering a more accurate and transparent way to predict future events[3]. Prediction markets are not just about betting on outcomes but also about harnessing collective intelligence and facilitating decentralized decision-making. As these platforms continue to grow and evolve, they could fundamentally change how we consume and interact with news. However, they also raise ethical and regulatory concerns that need to be addressed to maintain credibility and prevent misinformation[3]. In conclusion, prediction markets are on the rise, offering a new and potentially more accurate way to predict future events. As they continue to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor their impact on the media landscape and address the ethical and regulatory challenges they pose.

    4 min

About

Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success. For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/

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