WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

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WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.

  1. 21H AGO

    Education Stock Highlights | Rhodium & Copper on the Move

    Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group. Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025 Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels. Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges. BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs. Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency. Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models. Tesla’s Market Share Decline in Europe Tesla’s share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%. Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates. CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affecting brand perception. Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155. The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels. Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights

    21 min

  2. MAR 19

    Renergen sells Helium, Finally. Gold & Top40 at all-time Highs

    Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. Two options: 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. Open for investment until March 28, 2025. Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: Finally delivered helium after years of delays. Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays. Macroeconomic Outlook: Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. Economic slowdown concerns intensifying. Upcoming Rate Decisions: US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook

    21 min

  3. MAR 11

    Atlanta Fed has the US already in recession for Q1

    The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January. Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025 Just One Lap Turns 14 Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support. South African Budget Review Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies. Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability. Discussion on potential economic impacts. HomeChoice International Results Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%. Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice. Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance. Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go? Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending. Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International). Implications for long-term financial planning. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?

    20 min

  4. MAR 5

    Tariffs, Results and a Strategic Crypto Reserve (#621)

    WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

    22 min

  5. FEB 25

    Understanding tax and donations | Sasol results fail to excite

    WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

    20 min

  6. FEB 18

    Xi Jinping makes nice with Chinese tech | Anglo raids Anglo Plat cash pile

    Anglo-American’s Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China’s Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

    14 min

  7. FEB 12

    China Running and Finally a Sasol Reversal Pattern?

    Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’ Bond Market Watch: SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

    19 min

  8. FEB 6

    Golden Highs & Trump Trade Shambles

    Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well. Gold weekly | 06 February 2025 Retail Sector & Consumer Spending: Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs. Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong. Cautious consumer spending patterns persist. Two-Pot Retirement System: Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA’s economy. Vehicle Sales Trends: January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda. Such African monthly vehicle sales Sasol’s Ongoing Struggles: Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook

    19 min
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    All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.

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