Stephan Livera Podcast

Stephan Livera
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Stephan Livera Podcast

Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

  1. 2 DAYS AGO

    Power Law, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy with Sina | SLP619

    Sina, COO and co-founder of 21st Capital, discusses the application of power law in understanding Bitcoin's growth. He explains how his empirical research led to the development of a power law model that accurately describes Bitcoin's historical price behavior. The discussion delves into the mechanisms behind this model, the reliability of its predictions, and the impact of market maturity on Bitcoin's growth trajectory.  Sina also introduces quantile models to provide a probabilistic view of future price predictions, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and investor behavior. They also discuss the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining, the impact of fiat inflation on Bitcoin valuation, and the significance of the power law in Bitcoin's growth. They deep dive into MicroStrategy's unique position in the Bitcoin market, analyzing its premium and market dynamics, and explore the future interplay between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin. Takeaways 🔸Power law models Bitcoin's growth behavior effectively. 🔸Adoption is a key driver of Bitcoin's value. 🔸Reliability of models can be assessed through R-squared values. 🔸Market maturity leads to reduced volatility in Bitcoin. 🔸Quantile models provide a probabilistic view of price predictions. 🔸Historical patterns can inform future expectations. 🔸Latecomers to the market have less impact on price. 🔸Bitcoin's growth is constrained by physical and psychological limits. 🔸ETF purchases are becoming more influential than mining. 🔸Understanding probabilities is crucial for realistic expectations. People are overemphasizing the mining factor in Bitcoin's price. 🔸Long-term holders play a significant role in Bitcoin's market dynamics. 🔸Fiat inflation can impact Bitcoin's nominal price but not its fundamental value. 🔸The power law provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin's growth. 🔸MicroStrategy's premium reflects its unique position in the market. 🔸Investors see MicroStrategy as a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly. 🔸MicroStrategy's financial engineering allows it to accumulate more Bitcoin over time. 🔸The premium on MicroStrategy shares may fluctuate with market conditions. 🔸Increased institutional interest in Bitcoin could benefit MicroStrategy. 🔸Self-custody remains a critical aspect of Bitcoin investment. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:54) - What is the Power Law? How does it apply to Bitcoin? (06:44) - Will Power Law patterns hold into the future? (10:09) - Evaluating the reliability of Power Law (15:40) - Does Power Law imply a diminishing return for Bitcoin?  (21:08) - Sponsors (23:40) - Quantile models and Future price predictions (31:38) - The evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining and sell-offs (34:24) - How does fiat inflation influence the Power Law model? (40:59) -Sponsors (43:01) - What’s driving $MSTR to trade at a premium? (48:32) - The future of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin's interplay (56:48) - Impact of corporations adopting the Bitcoin Strategy Links:  https://21stcapital.com/  https://x.com/Sina_21st  https://www.youtube.com/@21stCapital  https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1858706684904104149  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    1h 3m

  2. 5 DAYS AGO

    Debunking Climate Myths with Tom Nelson | SLP618

    Tom Nelson discusses the misconceptions surrounding climate change, particularly the belief that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of climate change. He argues that this notion is a significant part of a larger narrative that has been perpetuated for decades, leading to alarmism and extreme policies.  The discussion also touches on the evolution of climate catastrophism, the implications of the net zero agenda, and the role of media and funding in shaping public perception. Nelson emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of climate science and the importance of questioning prevailing narratives.  Tom & Stephan also discuss the evolution of climate skepticism, the impact of urban heat islands on temperature records, and the misconceptions surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. Emphasis is also laid on the importance of debates in shaping public perception and critiques government subsidies for renewable energy sources. The discussion touches on the potential of Bitcoin as a means of financial freedom in the context of climate change narratives. Takeaways 🔸Carbon dioxide is just one of many factors affecting climate. 🔸Groupthink and power control drive climate alarmism. 🔸The narrative around climate change has evolved over decades. 🔸Net zero policies often lead to absurd consequences. 🔸Many climate policies are based on flawed assumptions. 🔸Public perception is influenced by media narratives. 🔸Funding for climate research often favors alarmist views. 🔸The complexity of climate science is often oversimplified. 🔸Bitcoin mining is unfairly criticized in climate discussions. 🔸There is potential for changing minds within the climate debate. Many well-known climate skeptics once believed in climate change. 🔸Starting with one lie can open up discussions about climate change. 🔸Legacy media's influence is diminishing as alternative media rises. 🔸The urban heat island effect significantly skews temperature records. 🔸Extreme weather events have always existed and are not solely due to climate change. 🔸Debates on climate change are often avoided by alarmists. 🔸Government subsidies for renewable energy are often misallocated. 🔸Fossil fuels are underfunded compared to renewable energy sources. 🔸Public perception of climate change is shifting towards skepticism. 🔸Bitcoin represents a potential shift in financial autonomy against climate narratives. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:12) - What drives Climate Catastrophism? (07:54) - What are the implications of the ‘Net Zero’ agenda? (12:16) - The role & consequences of media reporting on Climate Crisis (17:35) - Sponsors (23:24) - The Science Funding Dilemma  (26:41) - Does Bitcoin mining cause bad weather conditions?  (30:51) - The shift in climate skepticism (33:35) - Temperate Records (35:32) - Sponsors (40:40) - How serious are the extreme weather events? (44:15) - Ongoing debates and public perception of climate change narratives  (50:02) - Government subsidies for different forms of energy sources (55:33) - Tom’s perspective on Bitcoin Links:  https://climatethemovie.net/  https://x.com/TomANelson  https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    57 min

  3. 19 NOV

    Seasteading: A New Way to Live with Joe Quirk SLP617

    Joe Quirk, president of the Seasteading Institute, discusses the innovative concept of seasteading, which proposes creating floating societies on the ocean as a solution to the limitations of land-based governance. Quirk shares his personal journey into the world of seasteading, drawing parallels between cruise ships, Burning Man, and the potential for self-governing communities at sea. He explores the practicalities of building seasteads, the challenges faced, and the legal frameworks necessary for their success. The conversation also touches on sustainability, food production, and the economic viability of living on the ocean. He emphasizes the ecological benefits of building structures at sea, the innovative business models that can emerge, and the need for political autonomy. He also highlights the importance of material science and competition in developing sustainable structures that can withstand ocean conditions. Takeaways Seasteading offers a solution to the governance monopoly problem. Cruise ships exemplify successful self-governing societies. Variation and selection in governance can lead to progress. Experiences at Burning Man illustrate innovative social structures. Seasteads can be built using various materials and technologies. Legal frameworks are essential for the establishment of seasteads. Safety and sustainability are key considerations for ocean living. Food production on seasteads can include seaweed and seafood farming. Economic viability is crucial for the future of seasteading. Seasteading represents a new frontier for human innovation and governance. The ocean can support diverse life when solid structures are introduced. Seasteads require political autonomy to be truly effective. The future may see a proliferation of small, innovative nations at sea. Cruise ships serve as a model for future floating cities. Innovative business models can thrive in marine environments. Sustainable farming and biotech research can be more effective at sea. Material science is crucial for building durable seasteads.  The ocean's diversity offers opportunities for new governance models. Seasteading can provide alternatives to traditional land governance. Support for seasteading initiatives is essential for their success. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:04) - What is Seasteading? (04:08) - How did Joe's experience at Burning Man inspire him to pursue Seasteading? (09:36) - The evolution of Governance and Social structures (14:53) - Challenges & innovations in Seasteading (18:16) - What are the legal & regulatory aspects of Seasteading? (22:46) - How safe is it to live on the ocean?  (25:05) - Sponsors (27:22) - How does one produce or source food on Seasteads? (31:22) - How much does a Seastead cost? (34:00) - Aquatic life and its role in Seasteads  (35:35) - Future of Seasteading (40:57) - Innovative business models viable at Sea (45:41) - Sponsors(51:08) - Building sustainable structures at Sea (57:28) - What’s next for Seasteading? Links:  https://x.com/joequirkexults  https://x.com/seasteading  https://www.seasteading.org/  https://oceanbuilders.com/ Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    1h 6m

  4. 16 NOV

    Bitcoin Consensus with Steve Lee and Lyn Alden | SLP616

    Steve and Lyn delve into the complexities of Bitcoin consensus, discussing the motivations behind their project analyzing consensus risks in protocol upgrades. They explore the technical and economic aspects of Bitcoin, the evolution of its consensus mechanisms, and the various stakeholder groups involved in decision-making processes.  The discussion also highlights the importance of awareness among Bitcoin users regarding potential changes and the historical context of contentious changes in Bitcoin's past. They explore the challenges of gaining adoption for alternative clients, the implications of activation methods for protocol changes, and the overall robustness of the Bitcoin network. The discussion also emphasizes the need for awareness and understanding of these dynamics to foster better decision-making within the Bitcoin community. Takeaways Understanding Bitcoin consensus is crucial for all stakeholders. Bitcoin's growth changes the dynamics of consensus. Different philosophies exist regarding Bitcoin's evolution. Investors need to be aware of consensus changes. Knowledge empowers Bitcoin users to make informed decisions. Stakeholder groups have varying powers and incentives. The Bitcoin community is evolving and requires ongoing education. Historical changes in Bitcoin provide lessons for the future. Soft forks present different challenges compared to hard forks. The project aims to be a living document for ongoing contributions. The Bitcoin network must have the option for alternative clients to ensure a healthy ecosystem. Gaining adoption for alternative clients is challenging and can lead to a fragile network. Investors hold significant power in determining the future of Bitcoin, especially during contentious changes. Self-custody investors have a unique advantage in navigating potential forks in the network. The method of activation for protocol changes is a contentious topic with no clear best practice. Bitcoin's governance is complex, and no single group has unilateral power over decisions. Awareness of governance dynamics can lead to better collective decision-making in the Bitcoin community. The separation of the consensus engine from the Bitcoin Core could facilitate alternative clients. The future of Bitcoin's consensus mechanism is uncertain and requires careful monitoring of stakeholder dynamics. The project discussed is an open-source initiative, inviting community engagement and improvements. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) - What is the objective of Bitcoin Consensus Analysis (BCAP)?  (06:55) - What are the technical aspects of the Bitcoin Consensus? (11:29) - Examples of consensus changes (16:15) - What are the stakeholder groups in Bitcoin? (22:57) - Sponsors (25:34) - What are the various ‘States of Mind’ regarding changes in the Bitcoin Consensus? (31:00) - Historical context of changes in Bitcoin (38:56) - The importance of alternative clients in Bitcoin (47:06) - What power do bitcoin investors have? (49:31) - Sponsors (54:33) - Implications of various Activation methods (1:00:02) - Why is Bitcoin not a democracy of miners? (1:06:01) - The future of Bitcoin's consensus changes (1:14:16) - Closing thoughts  Links:  https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap   https://x.com/LynAldenContact  https://x.com/moneyball  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    1h 15m

  5. 14 NOV

    Should You Move to El Salvador? With Roman Martinez SLP615

    Roman Martinez, Lexi & Stephan discuss the evolving real estate landscape in El Salvador, particularly in the context of Bitcoin adoption. They explore the motivations of various buyers, the impact of recent changes in infrastructure and regulations, and the unique challenges and opportunities present in the market. The conversation also touches on the importance of trust in real estate transactions and the varying expectations of foreign buyers regarding property quality and development. Lexi and Roman also discuss the experience of moving to El Salvador, highlighting cultural adjustments, healthcare quality, language integration, and the real estate market. They emphasize the importance of understanding local customs, the benefits of private healthcare, and the growing expat community.  The podcast also covers the real estate landscape, including prices, investment opportunities, and the significance of discovery trips for potential expats. They conclude by addressing the risks associated with real estate investments and the importance of due diligence. Takeaways El Salvador's real estate market is evolving rapidly. Many buyers are looking for a 'plan B' due to safety concerns. Bitcoin adoption is influencing real estate investments. There are no property taxes in El Salvador, attracting investors. Bitcoin Beach is a key area for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Real estate transactions require trust and local knowledge. Expectations of property quality vary among foreign buyers. Pre-construction projects are gaining popularity. Education on Bitcoin is crucial for local adoption. Location is a critical factor in real estate investment decisions. Cultural understanding is crucial for expats in El Salvador. Healthcare in El Salvador can be better than in the US. Learning Spanish enhances the experience of living in El Salvador. Real estate prices have increased significantly in recent years. El Salvador offers a unique lifestyle that differs from Western norms. Discovery trips provide valuable insights for potential expats. The private healthcare system in El Salvador is highly accessible. Real estate investment requires careful consideration and due diligence. The expat community in El Salvador is growing and vibrant. El Salvador is seen as a country with potential for growth and opportunity. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:54) - What is Goodlife El Salvador?; El Salvador’s Real Estate landscape (04:05) - What is the Real Estate buyer persona in El Salvador? (05:52) - What motivates people to move to El Salvador? (10:35) - Bitcoin education, adoption and spending in El Salvador (15:30) - Living in Bitcoin Hubs & adjacent localities  (20:18) - What are the Real Estate investment trends?  (22:11) - Common pitfalls for new buyers (27:41) - Sponsors (29:55) - Quality of development & matching the expectations of expats  (31:49) - Cultural norms & Healthcare in El Salvador (38:32) - Overcoming language barriers  (41:17) - Real Estate prices & trends in El Salvador (43:33) - Sponsors (50:47) - What to expect in El Salvador?; Discovery trips for expats (57:42) - Navigating Real Estate risks Links:  https://x.com/goodlife_sv  https://x.com/romanmartinezc  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    1h 1m

  6. 11 NOV

    Shaping Bitcoin's Future in UK with Freddie New SLP614

    In this conversation, Freddie New, general counsel at The Little Car and Head of Policy at Bitcoin Policy UK, discusses the evolution of Bitcoin regulation in the UK. He highlights the historical context of regulatory attitudes, the role of the Law Commission in recognizing Bitcoin as property, and the challenges posed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).  The conversation also touches on banking access issues, the impact of fraud concerns, and the future of Bitcoin custodianship. They also discuss the strategic reserve held by the UK government, regulatory challenges faced by Bitcoin exchanges, and the broader policy goals for Bitcoin advocacy. Freddie sheds light on the political landscape and the need for engagement with politicians to promote Bitcoin-friendly policies. Additionally, they address the ECB's recent criticisms of Bitcoin and contrast the regulatory approaches of the UK and EU. Takeaways Freddie New advocates for Bitcoin policy in the UK. The UK has a history of misunderstanding Bitcoin. The Law Commission has recognized Bitcoin as property. The FCA has restricted access to Bitcoin products. Fraud concerns impact banking access for Bitcoin users. Bitcoin is seen as a unique form of money. The government is becoming more positive about Bitcoin. Banks are primarily concerned with self-preservation. The FCA's stance is a significant barrier to adoption. Bitcoin is for both individuals and institutions. The UK holds 61,000 Bitcoin, making it the third largest holder. There is a need for the UK to capitalize on its Bitcoin holdings. Self-custody of Bitcoin must remain legal in the UK. Access to exchanges and banking services is crucial for Bitcoin adoption. The UK should explore the potential of Bitcoin mining using renewable energy. Political engagement is essential for Bitcoin advocacy in the UK. The ECB's criticisms of Bitcoin are fundamentally flawed. The UK and EU have different regulatory approaches to Bitcoin. Pension funds are beginning to allocate assets to Bitcoin. Support for Bitcoin Policy UK can help influence positive change. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Who is Freddie New? (03:26) - An overview of Bitcoin regulatory scenario in the UK (08:00) - The shift in perception: From criminality to legitimacy (17:23) - Are banking onramps/offramps to Bitcoin a hurdle in the UK? (21:13) - AML regulations & their Implications for Bitcoin (26:21) - Sponsors (32:08) - The FCA's resistance to Bitcoin adoption in the UK; Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (40:43) - Sponsors (44:02) - Answering a questionnaire to buy Bitcoin in the UK? (47:51) - What are the Policy Goals for Bitcoin in the UK?; Bitcoin Developer community  (53:06) - Politicians & their stance on Bitcoin advocacy (1:06:27) - Contrasting UK & EU Regulatory approaches (1:12:00) - How to support Bitcoin Policy UK? Links:  https://x.com/freddienew  Bill on digital property that's currently going through Parliament: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3766  Exchange walkthroughs:  https://x.com/freddienew/status/1743644557441470496 https://uk.bitcoinpolicy.net/  http://www.bitcoinpolicy.uk/ Steve Baker speaking on Bitcoin in Parliament in 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXQpXYvUB98  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Nomadcapitalist.com/apply Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    1h 15m

  7. 6 NOV

    Bitcoin Space Denver with Eric Yakes and Tyler Stevens SLP613

    Eric Yakes & Tyler Stevens join me to discuss their efforts to build a Bitcoin-focused community in Denver through various events, educational initiatives, and sustainable financial practices.  Summary In this episode, Stephan Livera hosts Eric Yakes and Tyler Stevens to discuss the burgeoning Bitcoin community in Denver and their initiative to establish a dedicated Bitcoin space. They explore the dynamics of the local Bitcoin scene, the vision behind creating a community-driven hub, and the importance of governance and member engagement. The conversation also touches on the philosophy of creating a 'third place' for Bitcoin enthusiasts, comparing their efforts to similar initiatives like Bitcoin Park in Nashville, and outlining plans for coworking and events in their new space. In this conversation, Tyler and Eric emphasize the importance of documentation for leadership transitions, the need for financial sustainability, and the engagement of the developer community. They also share insights on creating educational opportunities and offer advice for others looking to establish similar community spaces. Takeaways The Bitcoin community in Denver is rapidly growing. Creating a Bitcoin space aims to bridge social and technical meetups. Community-driven governance fosters member engagement and influence. The 'third place' philosophy emphasizes a balanced community environment. The Denver Bitcoin space seeks to attract talent from the broader crypto community. The governance structure allows for member representation and influence. The space is designed to be a hub for education and events. The initiative aims to positively influence the local culture and economy.  You need to motivate your local community. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro  (01:21) - The vibrant Bitcoin community in Denver; BitDevs (04:48) - What is Bitcoin Space?  (09:21) - ‘The Third Place’ Philosophy in Bitcoin (14:45) - Similarities & differences between Bitcoin Space, Denver & Bitcoin Park, Nashville (15:54) - Community growth & member engagement in Bitcoin Space (18:57) - Sponsors (21:39) - Building community through Coworking & Events at Bitcoin Space (27:00) - Self-sustaining nature of leadership & importance of documentation (29:32) - Financial sustainability and Treasury management (32:36) - FOSS Developer community in Denver; Creating Educational initiatives  (33:44) - Sponsors (42:15) - Advice for aspiring Community Builders (45:28) - Outro Includes Paid Partnerships Links:  Eric Yakes: https://x.com/ericyakes  Tyler Stevens: https://x.com/tylerkstevens  The Space: https://x.com/SpaceDenver  https://denver.space/  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    46 min

  8. 29 OCT

    PlanB Forum Lugano 2024 interviews SLP612

    Here are some short interviews I did while at Lugano Plan B on a range of topics, from bitcoin ossification to block size, government regulation, the latest state of wallets, and mining decentralization with: Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro  (01:01) - Jimmy Song, Bitcoin Expert (07:30) - John Carvalho, CEO at Synonym (12:51) - Sponsors (15:05) - Dennis Porter, CEO & Co-Founder Satoshi Action Fund (24:58) - Ben, Host of BTCsessions (31:54) - Sponsor (32:50) - Luke Dashjr, CTO OCEAN Mining (37:53) - Jameson Lopp, Co-founder & Chief Security Officer Cas (47:22) - Outro Links:  https://x.com/LuganoPlanB  https://x.com/jimmysong  https://x.com/BitcoinErrorLog  https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_  https://x.com/BTCsessions  https://x.com/LukeDashjr  https://x.com/lopp  Sponsors: Bold Bitcoin CoinKite.com (code LIVERA) mempool.space/accelerator  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    48 min
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Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

Information

  • Creator
    Stephan Livera
  • Years Active
    2018 - 2024
  • Episodes
    619
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Stephan Livera
  • Show Website
    Stephan Livera Podcast

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