More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

قبل ١٦ ساعة

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by 2030?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade. The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap. But is this prediction based on solid evidence? Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

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قبل يومين

Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country? Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct? We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms. And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine. If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

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٦ سبتمبر

Do 11,000 sharks die every hour?

Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them. Millions of sharks are killed in fishing nets and lines every year. One statistical claim seems to sum up the scale of this slaughter – that 100 million sharks are killed every year, or roughly 11,000 per hour. But how was this figure calculated, and what exactly does it mean? We go straight to the source and speak to the researcher who worked it out, Dr Boris Worm, a professor in marine conservation at Dalhousie University in Canada. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

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٣٠ أغسطس

Are self-driving cars safer than cars with drivers?

Fully autonomous cars are here. In a handful of cities across the US and China, robotaxis are transporting human passengers around town, but with no human behind the wheel. Loyal Listener Amberish wrote in to More or Less to ask about a couple of safety statistics he’d seen regarding these self-driving cars on social media. These claimed that Waymo self-driving taxis were five times safer than human drivers in the US, and that Tesla’s self-driving cars are 10 times safer. But, are these claims true? We speak to Mark MacCarthy, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Technology Innovation, to find out. If you’ve seen some numbers you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

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٢٣ أغسطس

Do women feel the cold more than men?

Are office temperatures set too low in the summer for women to be comfortable? This idea has featured in news headlines and comedy videos which describe the summer as a “women’s winter”. But is there evidence behind the claims of a gender bias in air conditioning? To find out, we speak to Gail Brager, Director of the Center for Environmental Design Research at UC Berkeley, and Boris Kingma, a senior researcher at TNO, the Netherlands Applied Research Institute. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

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١٦ أغسطس

How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1-in-216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

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٩ أغسطس

Why it matters that Trump fired data chief

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated. This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam’ and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data. We speak to economist Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute, to understand why the revisions happened and the potential consequences of throwing doubt on one of the US’s most important statistical agencies. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Sam Bonham

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٦ أغسطس

Are abortion numbers rising in the US?

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year? Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

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