Numerai & Predictoor: How AI Changed Crypto Prediction Markets - Trent McConaghy & Richard Craib

Prediction markets were one of the first use cases of smart contracts, yet their popularity only recently spiked, following Polymarket’s social media spread. However, while prediction markets are generally zero-sum games, the rise of AI models trained on large datasets led to AI-powered prediction feeds and hedge funds. Crypto offers a unique array of use cases as it allows data scientists to not only share their data sets and models with complete privacy, but also access decentralised computing and model training. While Predictoor employs Ocean’s data infrastructure to run AI-powered prediction bots on lower timeframes, Numerai developed its own AI hedge fund for stocks, that recently also expanded to crypto (Numerai does not trade cryptocurrencies, and Numerai’s Hedge Fund(s) have no relation to Numerai Crypto).

Topics covered in this episode:

• Predictoor & Numerai overview
• Prediction markets
• Prediction feeds
• Prediction markets in TradFi and other use cases
• Implementation of Ocean’s tech in Predictoor
• Predictions vs. Futures
• Market participants
• Numerai hedge fund
• Numerai’s trust assumptions
• The role of AI
• The evolution of AI and how it might solve market inefficiencies
• Numerai crypto and how it differs from Predictoor
• Predictoor x Numerai collaborations
• The future of prediction markets

Episode links:

• Trent McConaghy on Twitter
• Richard Craib on Twitter
• Predictoor on Twitter
• Numerai on Twitter
• Ocean Protocol on Twitter
• Oasis Protocol on Twitter

Sponsors:

• Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.io
• Chorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.one

This episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.