The Treasury is racing to find tax reforms to boost growth amid fears that at least £10bn could be wiped off the government’s already strained fiscal plan.
Rachel Reeves has ordered officials to identify tax changes that would improve forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which are crucial to sticking to her key fiscal rule.
The watchdog’s productivity forecasts have long been seen as too optimistic. One Labour official said a downgrade was “a matter of when, not if”, prompting the chancellor to search for growth-promoting measures that could mitigate the damage.
Some forecasters are predicting that the prospect of a productivity downgrade, coupled with weaker growth driven by the trade war, could help expose a fiscal hole exceeding £20bn in the October Budget.
Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR, noted last month that a mere 0.1 percentage point reduction in the productivity growth forecast over five years would wipe out Reeves’ £9.9bn of headroom against her key fiscal rule, which commits her to matching day-to-day spending with tax revenues by 2029-30.
Information
- Show
- FrequencyUpdated daily
- Published3 September 2025 at 23:00 UTC
- Length1 min
- Episode2
- RatingClean