More or Less: Behind the Stats

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MATHEMATICS
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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

1 DAY AGO

What’s Trump’s problem with Canada?

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day” a Donald Trump calls it. But is President Trump right about the trading relationship between the two countries? What does he mean when he claims that “the US subsidises Canada $200 billion a year”? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Studio manager: Andrew Mills

9 min
4 DAYS AGO

Could a 2% wealth tax raise £24bn?

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up? A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on. The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why. And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
22 MAR

What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet. The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
19 MAR

Why are more people claiming disability benefits?

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend? Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does? One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
17 MAR

How did lockdown impact children?

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down. It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll. But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life. Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it. On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

42 min
15 MAR

What is an IQ map and can we trust them?

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations. If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa. Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority. However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

9 min
12 MAR

DOGE, apples and irregular migrants

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

29 min
8 MAR

Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

9 min

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