Forward Guidance

Blockworks
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Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

  1. -1 J

    Breaking Down Trump's Potential Trade & Economic Policies | Stephen Miran

    In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Stephen's Background (02:34) Context Behind The Paper (04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade (09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency (11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining (14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs (17:28) Economics Of Tariffs (25:37) Currency Offsetting (32:25) Ads (33:58) Trump's Economic Policies (45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs (49:18) Dollar Devaluation (55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury (01:01:46) The Big Picture (01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets (01:06:43) Closing Remarks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1 h 8 min

  2. -2 J

    The Stock Market Melt Up Is About To Accelerate | George Robertson

    In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist (06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift (14:14) Forward Guidance (15:54) Summarizing George's Position (17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds (21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy (33:28) Ads (35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued) (37:18) What Is Driving The Economy? (45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed (49:51) What Stage Are We In? (53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate (01:01:23) Economic Outlook (01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1 h 8 min

  3. -5 J

    Positioning For The New Post-Election Market Regime | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:27 Election Outcome 04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling 09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing? 15:53 Market Impact Of Election 23:04 Ads 24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued) 25:35 Offsides Hedging 30:40 Powell & The Fed 36:37 December FOMC Meeting 40:47 2025 Themes To Watch 44:39 Short Gold? 46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs 52:19 New Market Regime — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    56 min

  4. -6 J

    Biggest Takeaways From The Fed Interest Rate Decision | Bob Elliot

    In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) FOMC Takeaways (02:48) Is Policy Restrictive? (07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced? (09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What (12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy (15:40) Quantitative Tightening (18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do (22:20) Ledger Ad (23:05) The Labor Market (26:33) Election Impact On The Fed (31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation? (35:22) Fiscal Deficits (42:51) Asset Allocation (44:42) Credit Spreads (46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy (49:58) F*ck Valuations (52:11) Follow Bob's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    53 min

  5. 6 NOV.

    Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan

    In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:11) Pollster Miscalculations (12:03) Societal Impact Of Election (19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact (27:52) Ledger Ad (28:37) How Will The Fed React? (33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar (35:38) Volatility & Market Structure (43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect (52:06) Market Outlook (56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    58 min

  6. 2 NOV.

    Why The Macro Is Still Bullish Liquidity | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) NFP Report Takeaways (14:50) Quant Corner (24:31) Ledger Ad (25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding? (37:31) QRA (48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    55 min

  7. 29 OCT.

    Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer

    In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market? (04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique? (07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates (09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity (12:39) Election Impact on Markets (15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields (22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets (26:39) Earnings vs Valuation (34:52) Ledger Ad (35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing? (37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk (42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges (45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates (49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter? (56:42) Learn More About Jurrien __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    58 min

  8. 26 OCT.

    Is It Too Late To Buy Election Hedges? | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:33) Path of Interest Rates (08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone? (10:46) Overdone Currency Moves (12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility (16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging (20:29) Election Probability Distribution (27:17) Ledger Ad (28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates (31:10) Inflation Resurgence (33:18) Global Coordination (36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade (39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency (47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market (55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1 h 3 min
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À propos

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Informations

  • Création
    Blockworks
  • Années d’activité
    2021 - 2024
  • Épisodes
    437
  • Copyright
    © 384141 Blockworks 2021
  • Site web de l’émission
    Forward Guidance

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