NAB Morning Call

Phil Dobbie
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NAB Morning Call

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  1. 7 HR AGO

    An ocean apart

    Tuesday 4th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Ukraine is behind a world of difference between US and European markets today. European leaders are resigned to the need to spend more to defend Ukraine and Eastern Europe, pushing bond yields higher and equities also rising sharply, led by European defence stocks. In the US stocks are sharply down, led by the tech sector, with bond yields also falling. The ISM manufacturing index fell much more than expected, with concerns about tariff uncertainty, but rising prices also showing in the data. NAB’s Skye Masters wonders whether markets have fully responded to the price data, which could be a warning sign for further inflation against a slowing economy. Today, Australia’s focus will be on retail sales, and the extent to which we could be impacted by a new agricultural tariff just announced by President Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    13 min

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    Keeping the dream alive

    Monday 3rd March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brokered, at least between Zelensky and Trump. So. the dream has been kept alive. The other news was the signs of softness in the US economy, evidenced by lower spending, a massive increase the trade deficit and a complete turnaround in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. But, as NAB’S Tapas Strickland explains, a lot of this could be driven by pre-tariff behaviour, particularly for the import of machinery earlier than usual. There are concerns, though, that the economy might be slowing more than expected, which has nudged rate cut expectations slightly higher. Supposedly tariffs on Mexico and Canada kick off today, but we look at one way it might be avoided or at least delayed again. Plus, why this is a busy week for Australian data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    17 min
  3. Weekend Edition - Where Australia sits in a Trumpian world

    3 DAYS AGO

    Weekend Edition - Where Australia sits in a Trumpian world

    Friday 28th February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The consequences of President Trump’s policies are being felt far and wide. The US now has a transactional based approach, even with its allies on areas such as defence which were considered shared values. So, what are the repercussions for Australia? Phil talks to Dr John Kunkel, senor economics adviser at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.    He suggests that, whilst some of the approaches are questionable, Australia should continue to  engage and, more than most, is well placed to take advantage of US growth. And if Australia has to spend more, for example, on defence, it is simply a reflection on how ill-prepared we have been in the past. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    31 min

  4. 4 DAYS AGO

    Did I say April? I meant March.

    Friday 28th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has made some more sharp moves on tariffs. The date for Mexico and Canada is now back to the middle of next week, and a further 10 percent is to be imposed on China at the same time. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend about the market reaction and how much of this will actually come to fruition. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been to the White House, but it seems Ukraine was off the agenda ahead of a ‘big deal’ supposedly being signed with Zelenskyy tomorrow. There’s also discussion on US PCE numbers and Australian capex. All very interesting, but clearly the focus is on which tariffs happen where and when (and by how much). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    18 min

  5. 5 DAYS AGO

    Tariffs: Mexico and Canada delayed, 25% coming Europe’s way

    Thursday 27th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has his first cabinet meeting and announced delays on the introduction of tariffs for Mexico and Canada (now April 2nd) and revealed how much Europe will be paying (25%) although he was a bit nonspecific on some of the detail. Nab’S Ray Attrill says the US Houe of Reps has also passed the budget, which includes big spending cuts, but tax cuts see the deficit expanding. It did impact bond yields a little, but there’s not been much market reaction to the latest tariff talk. Locally, CPI came in a little weaker than expected, helped by a continued fall in housing costs which could help bring down the next quarterly CPI result and keep the RVBA on track for a May cut Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    18 min

  6. 6 DAYS AGO

    Feeling Risky

    Wednesday 26th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This morning the Aussie dollar is down whilst safe haven currencies have risen, as markets start to assess the risk of US tariffs. A lot of f the moves in the last 24 hours relate to Trump’s comments that Canada and Mexico are due to see their 25% import from 3rd March. Steel tariffs are then scheduled to follow on the 22nd, then broader reciprocal tariffs from April. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Alcoa’s CEO has warned that 100kUS industry jobs could be at risk from tariffs on steel and aluminium. So, again, the question remains, is it bravado, given China’s 10% is the only tariff imposed so far? Australia’s monthly CPI is out today, although it has a heavy goods bias, so the read won’t be particularly accurate. This time tomorrow (after the US close) NVIDIA reports their earnings results. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    16 min

  7. 24 FEB

    Markets coast as politics turns to peace talks

    Tuesday 25th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a bit of buying the dip, says Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, on today’s podcast. The S&P tested 6,000 before rising sharply back and finishing well up on the day. Markets seem to be largely ignoring a spate of softer data, to which we can add the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, which showed a sharp rise in business uncertainty. Germany’s Chancellor in waiting, Fredriech Merz has indicated he wants to move quickly to increase Germany’s defence spending, ahead of the new government, as Europe continues to scramble to forge its own path in the future for Ukraine, and the region’s defence strategy. New Zealand provides the best news of the week so far. Retail sales are well up, signalling that the economy could be on the road to recovery. Whilst there’s corporate earnings this week, and a sprinkling of data today, the focus will be on peace talks, with Macron in Washington right now to give the European perspective and avoid a deal that’s too favourable for Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    15 min

  8. 23 FEB

    A less confident US, a more divided Germany

    Monday 24th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friedrich Merz is likely to be the new Chancellor in Germany, but the exit polls show his CDU/CSU alliance will need to negotiate with other parties to form government and stave off the influence of the far right AfD. NAB’s Rodrigo says that could take some time. Meanwhile, a string of less optimistic data releases for the US. Friday’s Services PMI was a big downside surprise, falling into contractionary territory. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey also recorded a big fall, whilst there was a uptick in inflation expectations. And there’s a move down in US shares. Rodrigo wonders whether this could all encourage Present Trump to move faster on tariffs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    17 min
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    About

    Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    Information

    • Creator
      Phil Dobbie
    • Years Active
      2016 - 2025
    • Episodes
      1.2K
    • Rating
      Clean
    • Copyright
      © All rights reserved
    • Show Website
      NAB Morning Call

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