SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:50 - Industry performance update

07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?

09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025

17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression

26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025

39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?

48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism

55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years

59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies

01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?

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