Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
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Top Traders Unplugged

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. GM75: Macro Mastery: The HedgeEye Approach ft. Keith McCullough

    11 HR AGO

    GM75: Macro Mastery: The HedgeEye Approach ft. Keith McCullough

    Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Keith on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough 05:01 - From hedge fund to research 07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult 09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options 13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven? 15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads? 19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals 21:26 - McCullough's framework...

    1h 3m
  2. SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

    4 DAYS AGO

    SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

    Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment. Add to Show Notes ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - What has caught our attention recently? 05:50 - Industry performance update 07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading? 09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025 17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression 26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025 39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began? 48:22 - How inflation

    1h 13m
  3. OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

    20 NOV

    OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

    In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Linkedin. Follow Jerome on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut 03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models 08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model? 09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system 11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders 15:35 - An example of how they handle flow 18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade? 21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets 23:53...

    58 min
  4. SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    16 NOV

    SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.” ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:39 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:43 - Industry performance update 10:17 - New times for bonds 14:37 - The issue is always in the details 19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment? 22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing 26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto 29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following? 30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle? 34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage 38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist? 43:27 - A kind and a wicked...

    1h 8m
  5. IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

    13 NOV

    IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

    Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Carola on LinkedIn and a...

    55 min
  6. SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

    8 NOV

    SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

    Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:05 - What has caught our attention recently? 03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe? 06:26 - An analysis of the election 11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome 14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome 18:11 - A global macro perspective 28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits? 31:39 - Industry performance update 37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts? 37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it...

    1h 3m
  7. GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

    6 NOV

    GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

    Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Stephen on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran 05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance? 10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work 15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer 17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon 21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields? 24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations 27:26 - The state of the labour...

    1h 2m
  8. SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

    2 NOV

    SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

    In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - What has caught our attention recently? 03:30 - Industry performance update 04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months 11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event 16:49 - Picking the right managers 19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality 26:53 - Different products for different market segments 33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds? 43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds 46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent? 53:49 - Tell me what you...

    1h 5m
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About

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2024
  • Episodes
    776
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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