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1 天前

Navigating markets in 2025: Whipsaws and fatter-tails call for tactical moves

The format of this special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024. We hope you enjoy the discussion and wish all of our regular listeners a very happy New Year.

1 天前

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25 分鐘
5 天前

2025 Outlook: Europe’s economies brace for more political upheaval

Recession looks avoidable for Europe in 2025, but significant growth is still elusive. This episode of RBC Capital Market’s Strategic Alternatives considers the prospects, weighing political volatility in the region, central banks’ rate-cutting cycles, and potential U.S. interventions. What does all this mean for investors? Janet Wilkinson, Head of Fixed Income & Currencies Flow Sales, EMEA, is joined by Peter Schaffrik, Chief European Macro Strategist, and Cathal Kennedy, Senior U.K. Economist.

5 天前

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21 分鐘
1 天前

Navigating markets in 2025: Whipsaws and fatter-tails call for tactical moves

In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024.

1 天前

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25 分鐘
12月9日

Positioning Takes a Tiny Hit, Mixed Shifts in Key Consensus Macro Assumptions

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into momentum equity funds.

12月9日

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6 分鐘
12月4日

Early Thoughts on the 2025 S&P 500 Sector Outlook

Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view. The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weight.

12月4日

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6 分鐘
12月17日

Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!

The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace reflecting differences in macro fundamentals. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

12月17日

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24 分鐘
12月10日

Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

2025 will see the U.S. economy diverge even further from other developed nations, in ways that begin to look structural rather than cyclical. That’s one of the predictions from RBC Capital Markets’ Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Mike Reid in their outlook for the next year. They join Vito Sperduto, Head of RBC Capital Markets U.S. to weigh the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies – and the tough line the Fed will need to tread in 2025.

12月10日

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33 分鐘
11月26日

Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call. The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 12 month view but also makes the case for a near-term pullback. Third, we don’t see much room for further P/E expansion but our valuation work still helps us see how stocks can move higher next year. Fourth, US equities may soon lose their appeal relative to bonds. Fifth, the US economy is at an important crossroad from a stock market perspective. And sixth, the political backdrop presents both tailwinds and possible headwinds for stocks.

11月26日

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11 分鐘
4 天前

Can we meet the energy demands of AI?

While artificial intelligence is poised to change many aspects of our lives, it will also require an enormous amount of energy. How will we balance the demands of decarbonization, affordability, and reliability while meeting these increased energy needs? Learn more: RBC Capital Markets | Powering Sustainable Ideas

4 天前

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28 分鐘
12月6日

2025 Global M&A Outlook: Confidence meets caution

Lighter regulation under the next U.S. administration may make dealmaking simpler, at least in some sectors, but how will M&A be affected by Trump’s other plans? In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Ben Mandell, Global Head of M&A, is joined by RBC Capital Markets’ M&A experts from across the globe to analyze how the change of regime and other factors will influence transactions in 2025.

12月6日

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33 分鐘

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