美轮美换 The American Roulette

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一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客

  1. 058 | 自己人变成深层政府？从爱泼斯坦风暴到“大而美法案”的政治算计 Did Trump Become the Deep State?

    7월 18일

    058 | 自己人变成深层政府？从爱泼斯坦风暴到“大而美法案”的政治算计 Did Trump Become the Deep State?

    【聊了什么】 一场始料未及的风暴正席卷特朗普的第二任期。曾被MAGA选民寄予厚望、用以清算“深层政府”的“爱泼斯坦客户名单”，却被特朗普自己的司法部宣告“不存在”，瞬间引爆其基本盘的信任危机。这究竟是一次拙劣的政治操作，还是一场旨在掩盖更惊人真相的阴谋？司法部长邦迪会成为第一个被献祭的内阁成员吗？ 与此同时，共和党在国会强力通过了标志性的“大而美法案”，将企业减税永久化，却把对医疗补助等福利的削减推迟到了中期选举之后。这一系列操作背后，是传统共和党建制派的胜利，还是特朗普主义的策略性妥协？ 作为回应，曾与特朗普短暂结盟的马斯克，因不满法案中的新能源政策和财政赤字问题，高调宣布成立“美国党”。这究竟是撼动美国两党政治的开始，还是又一个亿万富翁的政治幻想？ 本期节目录制于2025年7月13日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/jeffrey-epstein-big-beautiful-bill-elon-musk-america-party-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:53 特朗普第二任期的首个大危机：“爱泼斯坦文件”风波始末 01:05 司法部长邦迪为何“犯错”？MAGA支持者为何愤怒？ 14:25 从爱泼斯坦到外星人：特朗普选民的独特关注点 16:41 进入正题：国会通过“大而美法案” 18:00 立法博弈：为何众议院直接“吞下”了更激进的参议院版本？ 26:38 “过两年我们就赢回来了”：美国政治“摆烂心态”的新常态 35:00 法案里的“惊喜”：为何要对职业赌徒的税收下重手？ 38:29 “大而美法案”之外的战场：共和党计划在德州重划选区 59:21 法案的真实影响：医疗补助削减与中期选举的“甩锅”大赛 65:00 共和党的“老内核”：为何企业减税被永久化？ 73:22 马斯克成立“美国党”：撼动两党制还是政治幻想？ 74:41 财政保守，社会中间：为何马斯克的政党找不到选民？ 80:00 第三党的“宿命”：为何在美国成立新政党如此困难？ 90:45 政治抱负与商业利益：马斯克无法摆脱的政府依赖 92:05 “亿万富翁救世主”心态：马斯克的政治实验能走多远？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 An unforeseen storm is sweeping through Trump's second term. The "Epstein client list," once seen by MAGA voters as the key to a reckoning with the "deep state," has been declared "nonexistent" by Trump's own Department of Justice, instantly sparking a crisis of trust with his base. Is this a clumsy political maneuver, or a conspiracy to hide a more shocking truth? Will Attorney General Bondi be the first cabinet member to be sacrificed? Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress have powered through the landmark "One Big Beautiful Bill," making corporate tax cuts permanent while delaying cuts to social benefits like Medicaid until after the midterm elections. Is this move a victory for the traditional GOP establishment, or a strategic compromise of Trumpism? In response, Elon Musk, once briefly allied with Trump, has loudly announced the formation of the "American Party," citing his dissatisfaction with the bill's new energy policies and the ballooning fiscal deficit. Is this the beginning of a shake-up of America's two-party system, or just another billionaire's political fantasy? This episode was recorded around 10 PM ET on July 13, 2025. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/jeffrey-epstein-big-beautiful-bill-elon-musk-america-party-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:53 Trump's Second-Term Crisis: The "Epstein Files" Fiasco 01:05 Why Did AG Bondi "Blunder"? Why MAGA Supporters Are Furious 14:25 From Epstein to Aliens: The Unique Interests of Trump's Voters 16:41 The Main Story: Congress Passes the "One Big Beautiful Bill" 18:00 Legislative Games: Why the House "Swallowed" the Senate's More Radical Bill 26:38 "We'll Win It Back in Two Years": The New Normal of Political Apathy 35:00 A Surprise in the Bill: Why a Crackdown on Professional Gamblers? 38:29 Beyond the Bill: The GOP's Plan to Redistrict Texas 59:21 The Bill's Real Impact: Medicaid Cuts and the Midterm Blame Game 65:00 The GOP's "Old Guard" DNA: Why Corporate Tax Cuts Were Made Permanent 73:22 Musk Founds the "American Party": A Political Shake-up or Fantasy? 74:41 Fiscally Conservative, Socially Centrist: Why Musk's Party Can't Find Voters 80:00 The Fate of Third Parties: Why It's So Hard to Launch a New Party in the U.S. 90:45 Political Ambitions vs. Business Interests: Musk's Inescapable Reliance on the Government 92:05 The "Billionaire Savior" Complex: How Far Can Musk's Political Experiment Go? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-jeffrey-epstein-birthday-letter-we-have-certain-things-in-common-f918d796?mod=hp_lead_pos7

    1시간 36분
  2. 番外 | 纽约地铁为什么这么破 Why is NYC subway system so bad

    7월 13일

    番外 | 纽约地铁为什么这么破 Why is NYC subway system so bad

    【聊了什么】 在上一期的节目中，我们讨论了刚刚赢得民主党纽约市长初选的新生力量马姆达尼。我们在播客中也提到，如果马姆达尼能够在11月击败其他候选者，成为纽约市长的话，将不可避免地要和州长、市议会、州议会、NYPD等等多方势力和利益团体打交道，来实现自己的承诺，也不可避免的要进行妥协。马姆达尼在竞选中喊出了要实现纽约公交免费的目标，如果要实现这一目标，就需要和掌管纽约地铁、公交和通勤铁路的纽约大都会运输署，也就是MTA打交道。 纽约作为的全球最知名的大都会、全美最大城市，却承载着一套“老旧且脆弱”的公共交通基础设施。技术和资金壁垒固然是常见的制约因素，但这座城市独特的制度基因才是影响基建发展的关键。 在这期番外节目中，嘉宾罗雨翔就从纽约地铁为什么这么烂讲起，分析了纽约城市发展背后的政治与经济。这期番外播客剪辑于第214期纽约文化沙龙的录音，由罗雨翔于2025年4月13日主讲。罗雨翔此前也做过另一期和纽约相关的节目《纽约的房价到底为什么这么高？》，两期播客都发布在我们的友台《选修课》上，也欢迎大家前去收听，并关注这档播客。 如果你对这期节目内容感兴趣，请关注主讲人罗雨翔的新书《创造大都会——纽约空间与制度观察》！国内各大平台均有销售（淘宝、当当、京东），海外用户请使用这个链接购买。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:00 纽约的地铁为何如此糟糕？基础设施背后的政治经济学 00:09:09 从电影《小丑》看纽约地铁问题的历史渊源 00:11:54 政府预算里的“两本账”如何影响了城市基建？ 00:12:48 地铁运营权转移给州政府背后的政治经济学博弈 00:20:45 拉瓜迪亚机场为何没有地铁快线？社区利益与公共项目的冲突 00:25:14 环境保护法如何导致公共建设效率降低？ 00:35:38 纽约街道规划如何成就了城市的宜居性？ 00:39:56 “曼哈顿网格规划”的历史意义与经济逻辑 00:49:11 “商业改进区”如何推动纽约街区建设？ 00:58:04 “公共与私人合作”模式的优势与隐患 【我们是谁】 选修课 Universus 是一档分享和探讨泛文化话题的中文播客，脱胎于2013年创办的纽约文化沙龙。 我们力求引发对学科方法和视角的认知和思考，而不仅仅是知识的传递。我们在组织活动的过程中积累了一些经验和人脉，尝试打造成年人的博雅教育，并在播客中拓展这样的探索。我们希望审视和反抗无意识的价值规训与随波逐流。我们希望冷酷地剖析自己的偏见，热忱地拥抱多元视角。我们希望去工具化，真诚地感知、理解、创造自己的生活和复杂的世界。我们追随原初的好奇而非代餐式的猎奇。话题可以轻松，方法力求严肃。在《选修课》里，我们互相映照，唤醒失落的维度。 主播： 老赵：理论物理学博士，软件工程师，纽约文化沙龙组织者。 主讲： 罗雨翔：美国注册城市规划师，哈佛大学与伦敦政治经济学院建筑与经济双硕士。现居纽约，参与以及主持北美20余地区的地产开发、区域经济政策与公共领域投资项目。 【 What We Talked About】 This episode dives into an intriguing paradox: New York City, a globally renowned metropolis with robust finances, yet burdened by an aging and fragile subway system. American certified urban planner Yuxiang Luo guides us through the intricate political and economic logic underlying the city's infrastructure issues. From budgetary mechanisms and political negotiations between state and city governments to the pros and cons of public participation systems, we realize infrastructure problems are far more than mere technical or financial issues—they're complex entanglements of institutions, history, and power dynamics. Several thought-provoking questions arise during the discussion: Why is New York, despite its significant financial resources, unable to efficiently invest in its infrastructure? Why does subway management lie in the hands of the state rather than the city government? How can small interest groups exert outsized influence over significant public projects? Is this model protecting public welfare, or is it the fundamental cause behind the inefficiency and high costs of public construction? Is the New York model of public-private cooperation genuinely innovative, or does it carry deep institutional flaws? If you find this episode interesting, please check out our speaker Luo Yuxiang‘s new book 《创造大都会》! 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:00 Why is New York’s subway system so bad? The political economy behind infrastructure 00:09:09 Tracing the historical roots of NYC’s subway problems through the movie "Joker" 00:11:54 How do the government’s “two budgets” impact urban infrastructure? 00:12:48 The political-economic game behind transferring subway management to state government 00:20:45 Why doesn’t LaGuardia Airport have a direct rail link? Conflicts between community interests and public projects 00:25:14 How does environmental law reduce efficiency in public construction? 00:35:38 How did New York’s street planning contribute to the city’s livability? 00:39:56 Historical significance and economic logic of the Manhattan grid plan 00:49:11 How do Business Improvement Districts promote neighborhood development in NYC? 00:58:04 Advantages and pitfalls of the public-private partnership model 【Who We Are】 选修课 Universus is a Chinese-language podcast created by the same people who founded the New York Chinese Cultural Salon (纽约文化沙龙）in 2013. The past decade of organizing events and talks put us in a position of creating a sort of liberal arts education experience for those who have left school. We strive to go beyond merely transmitting knowledge to reflecting on complex topics using cross-disciplinary perspectives. We strive to resist conformity, to dissect our own biases, and to embrace diverse schools of thought. Our goal is to help professionals resist becoming just a tool of production, and to understand the world around us in earnest. We let our genuine curiosity be our guide. With a light-hearted tone, we approach each topic seriously. We hope that “选修课 Universus” creates a space to explore lost dimensions. Hosted by: Lao Zhao: PhD in Theoretical Physics, software engineer, and organizer of the New York Cultural Salon. Guest: Luo Yuxiang: U.S. Registered Urban Planner, holding dual master's degrees in Architecture and Economics from Harvard University and the London School of Economics. Currently residing in New York, he has participated in and led over 20 real estate development, regional economic policy, and public domain investment projects across North America.

    1시간 36분
  3. 057 | 纽约将迎来“社会主义”市长？佐赫兰·马姆达尼的崛起

    7월 6일

    057 | 纽约将迎来“社会主义”市长？佐赫兰·马姆达尼的崛起

    【聊了什么】 在纽约市长民主党初选中，名不见经传的33岁州议员佐赫兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）以惊人的胜利击败了前州长库默（Andrew Cuomo），震惊了美国政坛。马姆达尼是一位自我认同的“民主社会主义者”，他的崛起不仅可能让他成为这个全球金融中心的第一位社会主义者市长，也标志着美国进步派运动取得了历史性的胜利。 从讨论“餐车通胀”（Halalflation），到娴熟地运用各种新媒体策略，Mamdani如何在短短数月内从民调个位数迅速攀升，赢得了这场看似不可能的选战？他提出的冻结租金、全民学前班等政策，在纽约这个贫富差距巨大的城市中获得了怎样的回响？当进步派的理想主义遇上纽约错综复杂的政治现实，他又将面临怎样的挑战？ 本期节目中，我们与身在布鲁克林的嘉宾小钟一起，深入剖析的马姆达尼的崛起之路，探讨这场选举背后纽约市的阶级、种族和代际政治变迁。 更正： 播客中提到AOC赢得初选为8年前，实际上是7年前 播客中引用了《纽约时报》的分析，提到18-24岁是初选中比例最大的群体，但此数据在录制之后进行了更正，显示25-34岁的选民所占比例更高。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/zohran-mamdani-nyc-mayor-cuomo-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 06:17 精英家庭出身的“草根”候选人马姆达尼 11:00 马姆达尼与AOC的相似之处 15:20 “社会主义者”标签的背后 17:33 Mamdani如何靠社交媒体赢得选战？ 25:31 谁在支持Mamdani？ 28:43 对变革的渴望：为何选民抛弃建制派？ 33:38 前州长库默为何输掉选举？ 45:07 马姆达尼的政策蓝图与可行性分析 51:17 理想主义 vs. 政治现实：马姆达尼执政将面临的挑战 57:37 进步派市长的执政困境 01:08:18 马姆达尼如何应对反犹指控 01:17:49 民主党与进步主义的未来与挑战 01:25:22 11月市长选举展望 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 小钟：布鲁克林居民 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, a little-known 33-year-old State Assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani, defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo in a stunning upset victory, sending shockwaves through the American political establishment. Mamdani, a self-described 'democratic socialist,' whose rise not only positions him to potentially become the first socialist mayor of the global financial capital but also marks a historic victory for the American progressive movement. From discussing "Halalflation" to adeptly using a range of new media strategies, how did Mamdani, in just a few short months, surge from single digits in the polls to win a race that once seemed impossible? How did his proposals, such as a rent freeze and universal pre-K, resonate in a city marked by a vast wealth gap? And when progressive idealism meets the complex political realities of New York, what challenges lie ahead for him? In this episode, we're joined by our guest Zhong, who is based in Brooklyn, to do a deep dive into Mamdani's rise and discuss the shifting dynamics of class, race, and generational politics in New York City that this election has brought to the forefront. Corrections: In the episode, we mention that AOC's primary win was eight years ago. This was a slip of the tongue; it was actually seven years ago. The episode references a New York Times analysis indicating that the 18-24 age group was the largest demographic in the primary. This data was subsequently updated after our recording, showing that the 25-34 age group actually had a higher turnout. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/zohran-mamdani-nyc-mayor-cuomo-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 06:17 Zohran Mamdani: A "Grassroots" Candidate with Elite Roots 11:00 The Parallels Between Mamdani and AOC 15:20 Unpacking the "Socialist" Label 17:33 How Mamdani Leveraged Social Media to Victory 25:31 Who is Backing Mamdani? 28:43 A Hunger for Change: Why Voters Abandoned the Establishment 33:38 Why Former Governor Cuomo Lost 45:07 Mamdani's Policy Blueprint and Its Feasibility 51:17 Idealism vs. Reality: The Governing Challenges for Mamdani 57:37 The Governing Dilemma for Progressive Mayors 01:08:18 How Mamdani Navigates Accusations of Antisemitism 01:17:49 The Future of the Progressive Movement within the Democratic Party 01:25:22 Looking Ahead to the November Mayoral Election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 小钟（Xiao Zhong）：Brooklyn resident The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

    1시간 35분
  4. 056 | 伊朗、移民、「大而美法案」：特朗普如何重塑美国外交与内政 Trump's Gamble on Iran, Immigration, and the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

    6월 29일

    056 | 伊朗、移民、「大而美法案」：特朗普如何重塑美国外交与内政 Trump's Gamble on Iran, Immigration, and the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

    【聊了什么】 在加州洛杉矶，一场大规模移民执法行动引爆了特朗普政府与州政府的激烈对抗，街头抗议随之而来，国民警卫队被联邦强行接管。与此同时，在中东，特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施，将地区局势推向战争边缘，却又在短短几天内迅速达成停火。而在华盛顿，共和党人寄予厚望的“大而美法案”在参议院遭遇程序性障碍，内部矛盾重重。 这些行动将如何影响美国的内政、外交和即将到来的中期选举？ 我们在本期节目中复盘特朗普政府这充满动荡的一个月，探讨了美伊冲突的来龙去脉与特朗普的政治算盘，分析了移民执法行动所引发的社会危机与宪政冲突，并解读了“大而美法案”在参议院推进的最新进展和幕后博弈。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/ 本期节目录制于6月23日。6月28日，参议院共和党经过超过三小时的激烈辩论后，以51-49的微弱优势通过了“大而美法案”的程序性投票，距离法案正式通过参议院又进一步。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:35 美伊冲突：从升级到迅速降温 03:25 特朗普的“闪电战”：美伊冲突中的政治得失 06:35 美伊冲突下的共和党内部分歧 10:17 总统的战争权力与宪法争议 13:40 民调的悖论：特朗普决策的考量 21:56 洛杉矶移民执法风暴 24:19 罕见之举：特朗普下令联邦化加州国民警卫队 35:02 移民政策的经济后果与政策反复 38:33 州长纽森的强硬应对与民主党的移民难题 47:28 “大而美法案”在参议院遇阻：揭秘“博德洗礼”程序 01:01:35 为何“大而美法案”不受欢迎却必须通过？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In Los Angeles, California, a large-scale immigration enforcement operation by the Trump administration has ignited a fierce confrontation with the state government. Street protests erupted, and the National Guard was forcibly federalized. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing the region to the brink of war, only to broker a swift ceasefire within days. And in Washington, the Republican's much-anticipated "One Big Beautiful Bill" has hit procedural roadblocks in the Senate, revealing deep internal divisions. How will these actions impact America's domestic policy, foreign affairs, and the upcoming midterm elections? In this episode, we recap a turbulent month for the Trump administration. We explore the timeline and political calculus behind the U.S.-Iran conflict, analyze the social and constitutional crises sparked by the immigration enforcement actions, and break down the latest developments and behind-the-scenes maneuvering of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" in the Senate. Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/ This episode was recorded on June 23. On June 28, after more than three hours of intense debate, Senate Republicans passed a procedural vote on the "One Big Beautiful Bill" with a narrow 51-49 majority, moving it one step closer to full Senate passage. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:35 The U.S.-Iran Conflict: From Escalation to a Swift Ceasefire 03:25 Trump's "Blitz": Political Gains and Losses in the Iran Conflict 06:35 Republican Divisions in the Wake of the Iran Conflict 10:17 Presidential War Powers and Constitutional Debates 13:40 The Polls Paradox: The Real Considerations Behind Trump's Decisions 21:56 The Immigration Enforcement Storm in Los Angeles 24:19 A Rare Move: Trump Orders the Federalization of the California National Guard 35:02 Economic Fallout and Policy Reversals of Immigration Policies 38:33 Governor Newsom's Tough Stance and the Democrats' Immigration Dilemma 47:28 "One Big Beautiful Bill" Hits a Snag in the Senate: Unpacking the "Byrd Bath" 01:01:35 Why the "Big Beautiful Bill" Must Pass Despite Its Unpopularity 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

    1시간 11분
  5. 055 | 特朗普 vs. 哈佛大学 Trump's war on Harvard

    6월 22일

    055 | 特朗普 vs. 哈佛大学 Trump's war on Harvard

    【聊了什么】 特朗普政府与美国顶尖高校的对决全面升级。从大幅削减联邦拨款，到以“反犹”为名发起调查，再到撤销哈佛大学招收国际学生的SEVP资格，一系列“富有创意”的行政手段，让数万名国际学生和学者的命运悬于一线，也和可能彻底改变美国高校与联邦政府的关系。 这场风暴的背后，是共和党与精英教育长达十年的积怨，还是特朗普政府目标明确的政治策略？面对相似的压力，为何哥伦比亚大学选择“屈服”，而哈佛大学最终奋起反击？ 本期节目，我们与持续报道该事件的记者Ava一起，复盘这场震动美国高等教育界的冲突。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-war-on-harvard-ivy-league-schools-transcript/ 本期节目录制于6月12日。据《纽约时报》6月21日报道，哈佛大学与特朗普政府本周重启谈判，试图解决双方激烈争议。在本周的白宫会议上，哈佛代表展示了学校在反犹主义、观点多样性和招生方面采取的措施，白宫随后发出信函列出了解决冲突的条件。尽管特朗普在社交媒体上声称「很可能在下周左右宣布协议」，但知情人士表示短期内达成协议的可能性不大。可能的协议框架包括政府恢复部分研究资金并停止法律行动，作为交换，哈佛需在反犹主义和观点多样性问题上采取更积极措施。哈佛官员表示，面对政府持续的资金削减和调查威胁，学校几乎别无选择只能寻求和解，尽管这可能招致支持者对其「妥协」的批评。白宫希望与哈佛的协议能成为其他精英大学与政府达成类似协议的框架。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:55 特朗普政府与美国精英高校的冲突全面升级 00:02:33 从“刘丽君”到撤销SEVP：特朗普政府如何对哈佛等高校步步紧逼？ 00:05:14 “哥大跪了，哈佛没跪”？——哈佛法律反击背后的策略与无奈 00:12:07 SEVP是什么？特朗普政府如何将移民法条文“武器化”？ 00:20:21 “教育极化”：共和党为何将精英高校视为“敌人”？ 00:28:48 从希望到麻木：留学生在政治风暴中的真实心态 00:30:55 “合法”与“非法”的距离：当有证移民一夜之间身份不保 00:46:57 薛定谔的身份：美国移民政策的高度技术性与“创意性”打击 01:00:06 美国最好的“出口产品”？——高等教育的价值与危机 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 Ava：记者，留子，卫报撰稿人 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 The confrontation between the Trump administration and America's top universities has escalated. From drastic cuts to federal funding and launching investigations in the name of combating antisemitism, to revoking Harvard University's SEVP certification for enrolling international students, a series of "creative" administrative measures has left the fate of tens of thousands of international students and scholars hanging in the balance, and could fundamentally alter the relationship between American universities and the federal government. Behind this storm, is it a decade-long resentment from the Republican party towards elite education, or a calculated political strategy by the Trump administration? Faced with similar pressures, why did Columbia University choose to "surrender," while Harvard ultimately fought back? In this episode, we are joined by journalist Ava, who has been covering this story, to break down the conflict that has shaken the world of American higher education. Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-war-on-harvard-ivy-league-schools-transcript/ This episode was recorded on June 12. According to a June 21 report from The New York Times, Harvard University and the Trump administration have resumed negotiations this week to resolve their intense dispute. In a White House meeting this week, Harvard representatives presented the steps the school has taken on antisemitism, viewpoint diversity, and admissions, and the White House subsequently sent a letter outlining the conditions for resolving the conflict. Although Trump claimed on social media that an agreement is "likely to be announced sometime next week," sources familiar with the matter say a short-term deal is unlikely. A potential agreement framework could include the government restoring some research funding and halting legal actions, in exchange for Harvard taking more aggressive measures on antisemitism and viewpoint diversity. Harvard officials have stated that facing continuous funding cuts and the threat of investigations from the government, the university has little choice but to seek a settlement, even though this may draw criticism from its supporters for "compromising." The White House hopes that an agreement with Harvard can serve as a framework for similar deals with other elite universities. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:55 The Trump Administration's Escalating Conflict with Elite U.S. Universities 00:02:33 From "Liu Lijun" to Revoking SEVP: How the Trump Admin Cornered Harvard and Other Universities 00:05:14 "Columbia Caved, Harvard Didn't"? The Strategy and Helplessness Behind Harvard's Legal Fightback 00:12:07 What is SEVP? How the Trump Administration Weaponized Immigration Law 00:20:21 "Educational Polarization": Why the GOP Views Elite Universities as "The Enemy" 00:28:48 From Hope to Numbness: The Real Mindset of International Students in the Political Storm 00:30:55 The Thin Line Between "Legal" and "Illegal": When Documented Immigrants Lose Their Status Overnight 00:46:57 Schrödinger's Status: The Highly Technical and "Creative" Attacks of U.S. Immigration Policy 01:00:06 America's Best "Export"? The Value and Crisis of Higher Education 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Ava: Journalist and international student, contributor to The Guardian The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-uncertain-future-of-a-chinese-student-at-harvard https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/us/politics/harvard-federal-funding-trump.html https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-965_h315.pdf

    1시간 6분
  6. 054 | 马斯克和特朗普的关系升空又落地 Trump and Musk’s public blowup

    6월 6일

    054 | 马斯克和特朗普的关系升空又落地 Trump and Musk’s public blowup

    【聊了什么】 2025年6月5日，美国总统特朗普与世界首富马斯克在社交媒体上展开激烈公开争吵，二人的政治联盟正式宣告（暂时）破裂。从马斯克公开抨击共和党的“大而美法案”，到特朗普暗示其患有“特朗普精神错乱综合症”，再到马斯克抛出所谓“爱泼斯坦档案”的重磅炸弹，双方的矛盾在短短一天内迅速激化，隔空骂战不断升级。 本期节目复盘这场引爆舆论的风暴。我们探讨了这场争吵究竟是源于原则之争，还是赤裸裸的利益冲突？马斯克在共和党和MAGA运动中的影响力究竟有多大，他是否高估了自己？这场风暴又将如何影响“大而美”法案的参议院前景。 本期节目录制于2025年6月5日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。 【美轮美换 × 疲惫娇娃线上读书会】 我们最近将与友台《疲惫娇娃》联合举办一场线上读书会活动，这次讨论的是今年的一本新书——《Abundance》。 读书会对美轮美换付费会员免费开放（请使用会员邮箱登录在下方页面获取折扣码），也欢迎大家打赏支持。 详情请见此链接：https://theamericanroulette.com/hui-yuan-huo-dong-mei-lun-mei-huan-x-pi-bei-jiao-wa-xian-shang-du-shu-hui-abundance/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:36 特朗普与马斯克公开决裂 00:07:11 决裂背后的三种理论：原则之争、利益冲突还是积怨已久？ 00:14:04 决裂风波对“大而美法案”的影响：参议院政治博弈与法案前景 00:17:43 意见领袖还是负资产？马斯克的政治影响力与民主党应对策略 00:26:28 马斯克的底牌与共和党内派系斗争 00:39:34 马斯克与政治的“水土不服” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 On June 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and the world's richest man, Elon Musk, erupted into a fierce public dispute on social media, marking the formal (and temporary) rupture of their political alliance. From Musk's public criticism of the Republican "Big Beautiful Bill" to Trump suggesting Musk suffers from "Trump Derangement Syndrome," and then to Musk dropping the bombshell of the so-called "Epstein files," the conflict between the two escalated rapidly within a single day, with their war of words intensifying online. This episode unpacks this firestorm that has captivated public attention. We explore whether this feud stems from a clash of principles or a naked conflict of interest. We assess the true extent of Musk's influence within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, and whether he overestimated his own standing. Finally, we analyze how this fallout will impact the prospects of the "Big Beautiful Bill" bill in the Senate. This episode was recorded on June 5, 2025, at approximately 10 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:36 Trump and Musk's Public Fallout 00:07:11 Three Theories Behind the Fallout: A Clash of Principles, a Conflict of Interest, or a Long-Building Feud? 00:14:04 The Fallout's Impact on the 'Big and Beautiful Bill': Senate Politics and the Bill's Future 00:17:43 An Opinion Leader or a Liability? Musk's Political Influence and the Democrats' Strategy 00:26:28 Musk's Leverage and Republican Infighting 00:39:34 Musk's Awkward Fit in Politics 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【The Links】 https://theamericanroulette.com/elon-musk-donald-trump/

    42분
  7. 053 | 只大不美的“大而美法案” One Big Ugly Bill

    5월 27일

    053 | 只大不美的“大而美法案” One Big Ugly Bill

    【聊了什么】 特朗普2.0执政百天过后，共和党正在国会推动一项被称为“大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的一千多页的一揽子法案。这项法案试图将移民、税改、福利等多个领域的政策打包通过，让特朗普的议程永久化。这背后有何深层动机？为何选择在此时以这种方式推进？这项法案的具体内容是什么，又将对美国政治、经济及普通民众产生哪些深远影响？ 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:00 “大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的背景与共和党动机 00:06:48 预算协调程序 (Budget Reconciliation) 详解 00:14:29 为何不单独延续税改，而选择“一揽子”方案？ 00:21:12 法案核心：减税措施详解 00:49:31 社会保障与福利改革：Medicaid与SNAP 01:08:16 法案中的开支增加项目 01:10:36 众议院投票的政治动态与特朗普的角色 01:15:54 法案在参议院的前景与挑战 01:22:22 法案对中期选举的潜在影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Following President Trump 2.0's first 100 days in office, Republicans in Congress are pushing a more than 1,000-page megabill dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill." This legislation attempts to bundle policies across multiple domains, including tax reform, welfare, and immigration, aiming to make Trump's agenda permanent. What are the underlying motivations behind this move? Why choose this particular moment and method for advancement? What are the specific contents of this bill, and what profound impacts will it have on American politics, the economy, and ordinary people? Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The "One Big Beautiful Bill": Background & Republican Motivations 00:06:48 Budget Reconciliation Explained 00:14:29 Why a "Package Deal" Instead of Just Extending Tax Cuts? 00:21:12 Core of the Bill: Tax Cut Measures Explained 00:49:31 Social Security and Welfare Reform: Medicaid & SNAP 01:08:16 Spending Increases in the Bill 01:10:36 Political Dynamics of the House Vote and Trump's Role 01:15:54 The Bill's Prospects and Challenges in the Senate 01:22:22 Potential Impact of the Bill on Midterm Elections 【The Links】 https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-05/61422-Reconciliation-Distributional-Analysis.pdf https://theamericanroulette.com/tax-on-tips/ https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/opinion/josh-hawley-dont-cut-medicaid.html

    1시간 31분
  8. 052 | 特朗普的蜜月期结束了，然后呢？Trump's honeymoon is over

    5월 18일

    052 | 特朗普的蜜月期结束了，然后呢？Trump's honeymoon is over

    【聊了什么】 特朗普2.0执政已过百日，民调下滑与中美关税的戏剧性调整，是否已为他的“蜜月期”画上句号？更核心的问题是：面对持续的冲击，美国的政治与经济体制能否经受住特朗普2.0的考验？政府对民意和市场的反应机制，是依然敏锐，还是日渐迟钝？这位话题不断的总统，其未来的执政重心又将剑指何方？ 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-2-0-honeymoon-over-now-what-transcript/ 本期节目录制于5月13日。 【美轮美换 × 疲惫娇娃线上读书会】 我们最近将与友台《疲惫娇娃》联合举办一场线上读书会活动，这次讨论的是今年的一本新书——《Abundance》。 这次读书会分成两期，每期1.5个小时，分别阅读书里的不同章节，并在读书会上一起进行讨论。 读书会对美轮美换付费会员免费开放（请使用会员邮箱登录在下方页面获取折扣码），也欢迎大家打赏支持。 详情请见此链接：https://theamericanroulette.com/hui-yuan-huo-dong-mei-lun-mei-huan-x-pi-bei-jiao-wa-xian-shang-du-shu-hui-abundance/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 0:00:00 执政百日：特朗普“蜜月期”结束与“只破不立”的开局 00:03:22 美国政治经济系统在特朗普2.0冲击下的韧性与损伤 00:27:43 特朗普的执政风格、权力运用及潜在“爆点”预测 00:40:51 “大而美丽法案”推进的挑战与共和党内部分歧 00:21:38 民主党应对策略的迷思与自由主义治理有效性质疑 01:05:21 马斯克和DOGE的“休克疗法”及其争议性遗产 01:10:51 特朗普2.0白宫的“宫廷政治”与核心幕僚浮沉 01:23:24 美国中东战略调整与中美关税谈判的戏剧性转折 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 【 What We Talked About】 With Trump 2.0 now past the 100-day mark of his presidency, multiple polls indicating a significant decline in his approval ratings, and the recent emergence of dramatic adjustments to US-China tariffs, can we definitively say his honeymoon period is over? Can America's economic and political systems withstand the test of Trump 2.0? Is the government's mechanism for responding to public opinion and the market still effective? And where will the focus of his governance shift next? This episode was recorded on May 13th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 0:00:00 First 100 Days: Trump's "Honeymoon Period" Ends & An Opening of "All Destruction, No Construction" 00:03:22 America's Political-Economic Systems: Resilience & Damage Under Trump 2.0's Impact 00:27:43 Trump's Governing Style, Use of Power & Predictions of Potential "Flashpoints" 00:40:51 The "One Big Beautiful Bill": Challenges to Passage & Internal GOP Divisions 00:21:38 Democratic Strategy: Dilemmas & Questioning Liberal Governance Effectiveness 01:05:21 Musk's DOGE "Shock Therapy" & Controversial Legacy 01:10:51 Trump 2.0 White House: "Palace Politics" & The Rise and Fall of Core Aides 01:23:24 US Middle East Strategy Shifts & The Dramatic Turn in US-China Tariff Negotiations 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

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