2038: Why the Single Family Home Market Hasn't Crashed and What's Ahead

Jason discusses the state of the housing market from a scenic location in Medellin, Colombia. He highlights the remarkably low mortgage delinquency rates, the lowest since 1979, debunking predictions of market collapse. He contrasts today's median mortgage payments, even with rising interest rates, to those in 2011-2013 when prices were significantly lower. Hartman dismisses concerns about unemployment impacting the housing market, arguing that unemployment benefits can comfortably cover these low mortgage payments.

And in part 2 of Dean Rogers' interview, Jason discusses the current state of the real estate market, focusing on the reasons why a housing crash is unlikely. He emphasizes that the market is not currently in a bubble, attributing this to factors such as solid lending practices, high-quality borrowers, low inventory levels, and strong demand for housing. He also points out that the shortage of entry-level homes, combined with the lack of distressed sellers and the equity that homeowners hold, makes a crash less probable.

Furthermore, he discusses the multi-dimensional returns of income properties and predicts that mortgage rates may settle around 5% in the future. Overall, he suggests that the real estate market is stable and poised for continued appreciation.

Key Takeaways:

Jason's editorial

1:27 Welcome from Medellin, Colombia

1:58 Lowest mortgage delinquency rates since 1979

3:41 Chart: Median monthly mortgage payment | Median home sale price

6:37 The wild card

Dean Rogers interviews Jason Part 2

8:18 Rents for Single Family Homes are going up a lot more

9:02 There is no such thing as a "national housing market"

9:38 10 to 12 year cycle market crash

11:32 Chart: Percent of closed-end, first lien mortgages outstanding by interest rate

12:42 Chart: Percent of closed-end, first lien mortgages byd current loan to value

14:46 Chart: mortgage originations by credit score

15:45 US population growth 1990-2020 & the most important charts

16:07 Inflation adjusted house prices 3.6% below peak

16:26 Single Family housing units completed

17:38 PropertyTracker.com

19:32 There is very low inventory

20:01 Interest rates 

26:01 The property has to make sense from the day you buy it

Mentioned:

Debt: The First 5000 Years by David Graeber

Grant's Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/

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