[21] Regression or Bounce Back? Looking at the 2024-25 College Basketball Season

This episode examines how college basketball programs experience and handle regression, exploring both historical patterns and current examples of teams navigating performance declines. Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth break down what separates programs that successfully bounce back from those that struggle to recover, while examining different strategies for mitigating regression's impact.

Segment 1: Understanding Regression

• Hall of Fame coaches like Tom Izzo demonstrate that program success follows peaks and valleys rather than steady progression
• Supporting players' statistical performance is significantly influenced by playing alongside All-American caliber teammates
• Matt Painter's tenure at Purdue shows clear cycles of program building and regression
• The "Baby Boilers" to "Johnson years" transition illustrates how roster turnover impacts program stability
• Discussion of how coach evaluation timelines have shortened in the transfer portal era

Segment 2: Teams on Regression Watch

• Analysis of Purdue's outlook after losing Zach Edey and the challenges of maintaining elite status
• Tennessee's adaptation to losing Dalton Knecht and their defensive identity
• Examination of Baylor's roster construction and recruiting approach
• The impact of minutes continuity on program stability and performance
• How conference strength affects a program's ability to manage regression

Segment 3: Bouncing Back

• Comparison of Indiana and UCLA's different approaches to rebuilding through the transfer portal
• Notre Dame's focus on high school recruiting under Micah Shrewsbury
• Cincinnati's emergence under Wes Miller through balanced recruiting
• The role of program resources and brand in determining rebuild strategy
• How NIL and the transfer portal have changed the timeline for program turnarounds

For coaches, administrators, and invested fans, this episode provides context for understanding the cyclical nature of program success and offers insights into how modern programs can manage inevitable downturns. The discussion helps set realistic expectations while examining the various paths programs can take to maintain or regain competitive status.

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