Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance Dwarkesh Podcast

Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.
Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
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Episode website here.
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Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Introduction
(0:02:29) - Predicting the future
(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information
(0:06:20) - Potentials
(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets
(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing
(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process
(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading
(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market
(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators
(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets
(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets
(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience
(0:28:49) - User Result Market
(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism
(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars
(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets
(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings
(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets


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