24 min
Adam Butler – You Can Be Right for a Long Time and Still Be Wrong My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
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- Investing
Adam Butler is Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. Adam is an author of the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad and contributed to the best investment writing volumes one and two, and he is ranked in the top one percent of authors by papers downloaded on SSRN. Adam also holds a CFA and CAIA charters.
In this episode, we will hear Adam's ironic realization he got from his worst investment experience - that you can be right for a very long time before you are wrong. His jarring investment experience affected his confidence and made him doubt his expertise and the value that he could do for his clients. Learn how he regained his confidence and bounced back into the investment game armed with the takeaways he got from this worst investment ever.
“The absolute number one fundamental takeaway I would like to share is that diversification is the best protection against ignorance.”
-Adam Butler
What do you want to hear from the My Worst Investment Ever Podcast?
Tell us here!
Resources:
My Worst Investment Ever Book myworstinvestmentever.com Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad by Adam Butler The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore all Economists, Strategists, & Analysts by James Montier
Topics Covered:
00:29 – Andrew telling us all about Adam Butler's career background and what he does at the moment
03:07 – Adam sharing the whole story of his worst investment ever
07:06 – How that failed investment kept him rudderless for months and why he still held on for the longterm reason
08:10 – Lessons learned from his failed investment and narration of Dr. Tetlock's work on the accuracy of forecasts
11:18 – Andrew sharing his own story of a study he made himself about forecast accuracy
12:36 – Adam discussing the books of James Montier about behavioral investing and the folly of forecasting and expounding more on Dr. Philip Tetlock's studies about forecasts
19:17 – Adam on what his views are on researching thoroughly about a particular subject about what happened to his failed investments
22:02 – The concept of diversification
24:14 – The idea of randomness and the awareness of randomness
Main Takeaways:
Lesson 1: "One of the most disruptive and ironic things about investing is that you can be right for a very, very long time before you are catastrophically wrong.” – Adam Butler
Lesson 2: "It was a shocking and jarring experience,
Adam Butler is Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. Adam is an author of the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad and contributed to the best investment writing volumes one and two, and he is ranked in the top one percent of authors by papers downloaded on SSRN. Adam also holds a CFA and CAIA charters.
In this episode, we will hear Adam's ironic realization he got from his worst investment experience - that you can be right for a very long time before you are wrong. His jarring investment experience affected his confidence and made him doubt his expertise and the value that he could do for his clients. Learn how he regained his confidence and bounced back into the investment game armed with the takeaways he got from this worst investment ever.
“The absolute number one fundamental takeaway I would like to share is that diversification is the best protection against ignorance.”
-Adam Butler
What do you want to hear from the My Worst Investment Ever Podcast?
Tell us here!
Resources:
My Worst Investment Ever Book myworstinvestmentever.com Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times and Bad by Adam Butler The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore all Economists, Strategists, & Analysts by James Montier
Topics Covered:
00:29 – Andrew telling us all about Adam Butler's career background and what he does at the moment
03:07 – Adam sharing the whole story of his worst investment ever
07:06 – How that failed investment kept him rudderless for months and why he still held on for the longterm reason
08:10 – Lessons learned from his failed investment and narration of Dr. Tetlock's work on the accuracy of forecasts
11:18 – Andrew sharing his own story of a study he made himself about forecast accuracy
12:36 – Adam discussing the books of James Montier about behavioral investing and the folly of forecasting and expounding more on Dr. Philip Tetlock's studies about forecasts
19:17 – Adam on what his views are on researching thoroughly about a particular subject about what happened to his failed investments
22:02 – The concept of diversification
24:14 – The idea of randomness and the awareness of randomness
Main Takeaways:
Lesson 1: "One of the most disruptive and ironic things about investing is that you can be right for a very, very long time before you are catastrophically wrong.” – Adam Butler
Lesson 2: "It was a shocking and jarring experience,
24 min