Alpha Bets

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Alpha Bets

Alpha Bets is an SGP and in-game trading focused sports betting podcast hosted by @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball, fueled by alternative data-driven insights from the Sportfolio Terminal. Bet like a Wall Street trader @ www.sportfoliokings.com. #NFL #Football #DFS

  1. 30/08/2024

    NFC North | 2024 NFL betting preview | Sam Darnold's time to shine

    In this final preseason episode, @deepvaluebettor and @contextcapper debate the Super Bowl promise of the Detroit Lions, the uncertainty surrounding the Chicago Bears' new quarterback Caleb Williams, the overrated potential of Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers, and the savory possibility of a Sam Darnold resurgence.   0:00 Opening Bell 00:48 Emotional ties to the NFC North 01:48 Packers' turnaround and overconfidence 03:53 Analyzing NFL analysts' predictions 06:03 Betting insights and market reactions 10:40 Vikings' performance and 2024 future prospects 30:36 Caleb Williams and the Bears' hype 37:21 Comparing Bears and Vikings: a close call 37:59 Betting strategies for the Bears 3 8:37 Sneak preview of Week 1 bets 41:20 Analyzing Bears' 2023 performance 4 6:09 Bears' 2024 roster and schedule breakdown 52:05 Packers' 2024 season outlook 53:42 Jordan Love: the future? 59:25 Packers' roster changes and schedule breakdown 01:03:45 Lions: the new NFC favorites? 01:03:59 Dan Campbell's aggressive coaching style 01:11:34 Lions' roster and schedule analysis 01:14:53 Betting on the Lions: risks and rewards

    1 h 16 min

  2. 23/08/2024

    NFC South | 2024 NFL betting preview | BTFD on underloved Panthers and Bryce Young

    In the 2024 season premiere episode of Alpha Bets, @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper provide an in-depth analysis of the NFC South's teams for the 2024 NFL season. They discuss preseason rankings and market expectations, focusing on the volatility and potential value in the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints. They debate scenarios involving key player impacts, such as Bryce Young's development, and evaluate offensive and defensive metrics using EDP (earned drive points). They highlight the mismanagement and injuries affecting past performances and suggest betting strategies, emphasizing the upside potential of the Panthers and cautioning against the overhyped Falcons. 00:00 Excitement for the Season 01:01 Division Preview Strategy 01:32 Market Expectations for NFC South Teams 03:16 Analyzing the Panthers' Potential 04:45 Panthers' Performance Metrics 09:12 Impact of Coaching and Roster Changes 28:06 Saints' Roster and Coaching Analysis 41:36 Betting on the First NFL Coach to Be Fired 45:04 Evaluating the Saints' Season Prospects 46:44 Analyzing the Buccaneers' Chances 55:06 Falcons' Potential and Quarterback Concerns 56:25 Bryce Young and the Panthers' Future 01:13:22 Concluding Thoughts on NFC South

    1 h 14 min

  3. 06/10/2023

    2023 NFL Week 5 | Betting Market Outlook | Bengals bottom 5? Saints bounce? Texans for real?

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 5 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.

    31 min

  4. 29/09/2023

    2023 NFL Week 4 | Betting Market Outlook | Rams top 10? Cards unjustifiably hated? Vikings bottomed?

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 4 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest. *This episode is snipped from our GameTRADE live betting stream on Thursday Night Football, so the audio is less polished and there are several sounds of New York City in the background due to window being open (grrr)*

    55 min

  5. 22/09/2023

    2023 NFL Week 3 | Betting Market Outlook | Vikings #1 offense, Commies still disrespected, Bengals doubts

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor) and Judah (@throwthedamball) recap NFL Week 2 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 3 slate.

    42 min

  6. 19/08/2023

    AFC West | 2023 NFL Betting Markets | Chargers unleashed? Chiefs fragility? Raiders underpriced? Russ a sinking ship?

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Eric Eager from Sumer Sports (@ericeager_) evaluate the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.  Eric's heart wants to see upside in the Broncos, but his model is more ambivalent, leading him to take the Raiders alt over 7.5 wins at +195. The boys discuss how the Raiders may have performed better than their record indicated last year, and why the betting market's disrespect of Jimmy G may offer some value. Judah doesn't see Russell Wilson rujenating his career, even with Sean Payton, particularly because the Saints/Brees scheme of highly accurate, middle-of-the-field passes with YAC receivers doesn't neatly fit Wilson and this offense's current core skillsets. He likes betting Broncos last in division at +250. Brett doesn't want to outright fade a powerhouse like the Chiefs with elite coaching and a superstar QB that elevates all those around him, but also thinks the price for the Chiefs alt over 12.5 wins is overly optimistic and underappreciates the natural volatility of an NFL season (+ the Chiefs unusually strong injury luck the last 3 seasons). He likes under 12.5 wins at -155.  Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

    51 min

  7. 14/08/2023

    AFC North | 2023 NFL Betting Markets | Who's sippin' the Brown(s) Kool-aid? Ravens more vulnerable than they appear? Bengals dethrone Chiefs?

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Andy Molitor from Betsperts and the Deep Dive Podcast (@andymsfw) pick apart the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.    0:00 - Intro 1:34 - Alpha bets 6:57 - Steelers 22:06 - Browns 39:39 - Ravens 48:50 - Bengals 54:06 - Live betting discussion   Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

    58 min

  8. 08/08/2023

    NFC North | 2023 NFL Betting Markets | Bears fat right tail outcomes, Packers least scored points, Vikings division champions, Goff makes Lions fragile

    Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Ben Brown from PFF (@pff_benbrown) slice and dice the Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.  The Chicago Bears right tail outcomes look fat and if it all comes together (asking a lot) this team could be the Lions of 2022 (but so much relies on Justin Fields development as a passer, and the arrival of DJ Moore helps...but isn't going to unilaterally elevate Fields). The Green Bay Packers have been a bottom 5 offensive pace team with Aaron Rodgers - now with an inexperienced QB, inexperienced WRs, and a rookie TE, least scored points +1100 looks attractive. The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins are models of consistency, and in a division ripe with uncertainty + the addition of Brian Flores to improave a dreadful defense, +300 division winners is juicy. Goff had a ceiling year in 2022, and expecting that performance again is a vulnerability (unless Ben Johnson truly is the next offensive genius). But the Lions won't be sneaking up on anyone this year and expectations are sky high. This makes the Lions fragile and under 9.5 wins +100 is Brett's division alpha bet. Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

    59 min
Tout afficher (50)

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9 notes

À propos

Alpha Bets is an SGP and in-game trading focused sports betting podcast hosted by @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball, fueled by alternative data-driven insights from the Sportfolio Terminal. Bet like a Wall Street trader @ www.sportfoliokings.com. #NFL #Football #DFS

Informations

  • Création
    SportfolioKings
  • Années d’activité
    2021 - 2024
  • Épisodes
    50
  • Classification
    Tous publics
  • Copyright
    © 2022
  • Site web de l’émission
    Alpha Bets

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