AIG Global Trade Series

AIG
  • 5.0 (3)
  • POLITICS

Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade? Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies. From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?

  1. 11/07/2024

    Critical Minerals and Trade in South East Asia: Regional Dynamics in a Global Context

    The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ Both the digital transition and decarbonisation ambitions have heightened demand for specialty metals, including nickel and lithium for electric vehicles and rare earths for advanced microelectronics. But as advanced economies’ access to these metals is becoming increasing critical, supply security concerns are increasing: production of critical metals is concentrated in a small number of locations, while geopolitical tensions are rising.    The race to produce and acquire these minerals is boosting investment in Asia-Pacific, changing the relationship between the region and the global economy. Focusing on Indonesia and Australia, what role do producer countries play in the global supply chain for critical metals? How are these countries responding to economic and geopolitical and sustainability pressures? And how are countries in the region handling growing pressures towards fragmentation seen elsewhere in the advanced technologies global supply chain? Panellists:        Professor Ian Satchwell, Adjunct Professor, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of QueenslandDr Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist, ERIA Moderator:      Dr Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute This podcast episode was recorded on 2 October 2024.   Related content from GTS Contributors: Report | Reclaiming Leadership: Australia and the global critical minerals race Report | Policies and Infrastructure Development for the Wider Penetration of xEVs in ASEAN Countries – Phase II  ___   The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade:  the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    46 min

  2. 10/22/2024

    What the Shift to Digital Services Means for the World: Changing patterns in global trade

    The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ Digitally delivered services have experienced a four-fold increase in value since 2005 and now account for a significant share of all services exports. At a time of growing concern about the slowdown in global trade in goods, the boom in digital services trade is a comparative bright spot. But does this perception fully align with the reality? Are the pressures on the global trade system - such as geopolitics, the risk of trade fragmentation and non-tariff measures - really less disruptive of digital services trade than they are of trade in goods? How could the WTO help promote and protect digital trade and harmonise regulatory approaches to digital services? And what does a growth in digital services mean for development and inclusion? Panellists:        Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics, IMD Business School Jennifer Hillman, Professor of Practice, Georgetown University Law Center; Co-Director, Center for Inclusive Trade and Development (CITD) Emily Jones, Director of the Global Economic Governance programme, Blavatnik School of Government, University of OxfordJane Drake-Brockman, Executive Director, Australian Services Institute Moderator:      Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute This podcast episode was recorded on 12 September 2024. ___   The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade:  the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).

    1h 16m

  3. 10/04/2024

    Towards a Reset in EU-UK Relations?

    The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ Four years on from Britain’s departure from the EU, politicians on both sides of the Channel continue to grapple with its consequences. In recent months, the election of the Labour government in the UK and the reelection of Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission have opened a new more constructive chapter in the complex process of negotiation over the UK's relationship with its neighbours.  For the UK, mitigating Brexit's negative effects on trade and business remains a central goal in the reset of relations. For the Commission, trade issues are increasingly wrapped up in a broad concern, vividly captured in the recent Draghi report, about the EU's competitiveness and its long-term economic growth.  What are the political and economic parameters within which the UK and EU are working on a reset?  Where are the red lines and where the areas of Win-Win? And can a new deal help address the growth challenge on both sides of the Channel?  Panellists:        Georgina Wright, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for International Studies, Institut Montaigne  Dr Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of Research Division, EU/Europe, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP)  David Henig, Director, UK Trade Policy Project, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) Moderator:      Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute  This podcast episode was recorded on 26 September 2024.  Related content from GTS Contributors:  Paper | Extraterritoriality: a Blind Spot in the EU's Economic Security Strategy | Institut Montaigne  Paper |The UK and the EU: New Opportunities, Old Obstacles | SWP  Report | Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future | ECIPE ___  The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).   The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    48 min

  4. 07/18/2024

    The Indispensable Partner? India and the geopolitics of global trade.

    The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’   While the BJP fell short of an overall majority in India’s recent parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set for a third consecutive term – but this time as part of a coalition government. This is uncharted territory for the world's most populous country. How might this new political constellation affect India's economic and geopolitical decision-making? What are the potential implications for India's trade policy and its positioning between the US and China, both of whom see it as a necessary partner? Lastly, what does the new political environment in Delhi mean for India's attractiveness as a destination for companies and investors looking to de-risk from China? Panelists:        Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations  Neha Mishra, Assistant Professor, International law, Geneva Graduate Institute  Moderator:  Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute  This podcast episode was recorded on 24 June 2024.    Related content from GTS Contributors:  Book | Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path to Great Power  Book | Wronged by Empire, Post Imperial Ideology and Foreign Policy in India and China  Paper | International Trade Law Meets Data Ethics: A Brave New World  Paper | Data at the Docks: Modernising International Trade Law for the Digital Economy ___  The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).   The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    53 min

  5. 06/26/2024

    Car Wars (Part 2) - Electric Vehicles, China and the EU

    As the competition between the US and China over electric vehicles ramps up, the pressure has mounted on the EU to agree its own approach to the issue of Chinese EVs. While there are widespread concerns about the impact of Chinese EV imports and calls for the EU to protect its auto industry, others argue that the availability of affordable Chinese EVs and “green tech” more generally can help accelerate Europe’s own transition. This critical policy debate is taking place against a backdrop of concern about the global impact of Chinese industrial over-capacity. Why is the EU concerned and is it right to be? How might the EV issue affect broader EU-China trade relations and what are its implications for EU-US trade relations? Lastly, what does the EV case teach us about how the EU should balance decarbonisation and industrial policy? For a discussion of the US-China EV rivalry, listen to the previous episode of the AIG Global Trade Series 2024: “Car Wars (Part 1)” features Rem Korteweg in conversation with Scott Kennedy and Wendy Cutler. The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’    Panellists:        Elvire Fabry, Senior Research Fellow, Jacques Delors Institute  Miguel Otero Iglesias, Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute  Moderator:      Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute  This podcast episode was recorded on 17 June 2024.    Related content from GTS Contributors:  Policy Paper | Shields Up: How China, Europe, Japan, and the United States shape the world through economic security  Article | The economics and geopolitics of electric cars: a European Perspective ___  The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    43 min

  6. 06/06/2024

    Car Wars (Part 1) - The US, China and Electric Vehicles

    Panellists:  Scott Kennedy, Senior Advisor and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies)Wendy Cutler, Vice President and Managing Director, Washington, D.C. Office, ASPI (Asia Society Policy Institute) Moderator:  Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute This podcast episode was recorded on 24 May 2024.  The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ Amid rising concern about the effect of China’s industrial overcapacity on global markets, the US has adopted tariff measures intended to address China's trade practices and industrial policy in several strategic sectors, notably electric vehicles (EVs).  In retaliation for what Beijing sees as US protectionism, China is moving ahead with tariffs on US imports, including cars.  Move and counter-move have propelled the issue of EVs to the centre of US-China trade relations. What are the political, economic and technological dynamics of the competition between Washington and Beijing over EVs?  Where does the EV issue feature in the US-China dialogue on climate action?  And is the sparring between Washington and Beijing on EVs a harbinger of escalation in their trade relations more broadly? ___ The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade:  the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    37 min

  7. 05/08/2024

    Mexico and Brazil — Trading Up?

    Panellists: Victor do Prado, Senior Fellow, Brazilian Center for International Relations – CEBRI Shannon O'Neil, Vice President of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations  Moderator: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute This podcast episode was recorded on 4 April 2024.   The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ With geopolitics, concerns for economic security and ambitious industrial policies creating new trading patterns and dependencies, global value chains are being reshaped. This fluid new landscape of global trade presents both opportunities and challenges for two of Latin America’s strongest economies: Mexico and Brazil. What are the main factors driving the integration of Mexico and Brazil in global value chains? How has the Biden Administration’s industrial strategy impacted Mexico and how is Brazil leveraging its relationship with China, its major source of FDI? What role is trade playing in the industrial development of both countries? And what does the experience of Mexico and Brazil tell us about the place of Latin America in the global economy? ___ The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); IIEL - the Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown University Law Center (US); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    50 min

  8. 03/25/2024

    Trade and the Ballot Box: US and UK Elections 2024

    The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’ This special episode, recorded live at Chatham House on the eve of their 2024 Global Trade Conference, considers the potential repercussions on trade of the upcoming US and UK elections.   In the UK, current polling suggests that the Labour Party of Sir Keir Starmer is heading for victory whenever the election is called.  Across the Atlantic, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set for the first rematch in an American presidential election for 70 years.   What do the various potential election outcomes mean for British and American trade policy?   And what might they mean for global trade? Panellists:       Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House Jennifer Hillman, Professor, IIEL at Georgetown Law; Co-Director of The Center on Inclusive Trade and Development, Georgetown Law Moderator: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute This podcast episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.___ The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); IIEL - the Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown University Law Center (US); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

    40 min
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Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade? Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies. From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?

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