“Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe.

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Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.