Behind the Markets Podcast Behind the Markets on Wharton Business Radio

Show from 07/19/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the political dynamics and potential scenarios surrounding the upcoming elections, as well as the implications of recent economic data, including jobless claims, housing, and retail sales figures. Siegel provides insights on the Fed’s anticipated moves and the market rotations between large and small stocks, emphasizing that small stocks may continue to benefit if the Fed cuts rates. (11:28) Jeremy continues with guests Andrew Okrongly and Vin Kravec from the Common Fund, exploring the private credit space. They discuss the surge in demand for private credit and its role as a liquid credit replacement The group touches base on the various strategies within private credit, such as senior lending and asset-based finance. Vin highlights the importance of private credit in enhancing portfolio diversification and its potential for higher yields compared to traditional credit markets.

Guests: Andrew Okrongly joined WisdomTree in 2022 as a Director on the Model Portfolios Team. He is responsible for the design and ongoing management of model portfolios and custom solutions for portfolio managers and advisors. Andrew is also a member of the WisdomTree Asset Allocation and Model Portfolio Investment Committees. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Andrew was a Director on the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) team at Commonfund, where he was responsible for macro-economic analysis and advising institutional clients on strategic and tactical asset allocation. Andrew began his career at BlackRock where he held a variety of fixed income and multi-asset investment roles. Andrew received a BBA degree from the University of Michigan and is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Vincent Kravec is a member of the Commonfund OCIO Investment team and is primarily responsible for investment monitoring, manager sourcing, rebalancing and reporting for investment portfolios with a focus in fixed income and credit strategies. Prior to joining Commonfund, Vincent was with Lazard Asset Management as a member of the Fixed Income operations staff. While at Lazard he was a trading assistant on the Emerging Markets team. He was also a supervisor in Fixed Income Accounting and had responsibilities in trading operations involving allocating trades and resolving trade problems for corporates, treasuries, municipals, asset backs and FX trading desks. Previous experience includes positions at Morgan Stanley, Alliance Capital and Evaluation Associates. Vincent earned his M.B.A. in from New York University’s Stern School of Business and his B.A. from Fairfield University. He is also a CFA charter holder.

Learn more about Andrew at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/andrew-okrongly

Follow Andrew on X(Twitter): @AOkrongly

Learn more about Vin at: https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-teams/outsourced-cio-team

Follow Vin on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/vin-kravec-cfa-2a610b10

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market trends, focusing on significant inflation data and its implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions. Professor Siegel highlights the positive CPI report and its potential to prompt rate cuts while expressing cautious optimism about unemployment claims and productivity trends. Jeremy continues with insights on market reactions to economic indicators, emphasizing the impact on various sectors and the potential for future rate adjustments.

Show from 07/06/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined by David Rothschild, a senior economist at Microsoft, who shares his research on the misconceptions surrounding online misinformation. David explains the nuanced landscape of media consumption, emphasizing the importance of understanding the broader media ecosystem and the role of algorithms. The two explore the challenges of addressing misinformation and the limitations of algorithmic influence, underscoring the role of user choice in content consumption. The conversation also touches on the implications of social media for political polarization. They delve into the potential effects of AI on society and productivity, with David highlighting both the opportunities and challenges presented by advancements in generative AI. He shares insights from his work on the Media Bias Detector, a tool designed to analyze media coverage and its impact on public perception, and discusses the broader implications of AI-driven research for understanding. The episode concludes with reflections on the future of media, technology, and their intersection with societal trends.

Guest: David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written extensively, in both the academic and popular press. His work pushes the boundaries on varying data and methods: polling, prediction markets, social media and online data, and large behavioral and administrative data. His work focuses on solving practical and interesting questions including: mapping and updating public opinion, the market for news, effect of advertising, finance, and an economist's take on public policy.

Learn more about David at: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/davidmr/

Follow David on X(Twitter): @DavMicRot

Show from 06/28/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kick off the episode discussing recent market trends and political impacts on the stock market, particularly focusing on the market’s reactions to political debates and economic indicators such as housing starts, trade deficits, and GDP growth estimates. Professor Siegel notes the persistent high interest rates affecting housing prices and the soft economic data in various sectors. He concludes with his outlook on the Federal Reserves potential actions in the upcoming meetings. (11:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with San Francisco Fed Research Advisor John Mondragon, who delves into the intricacies of measuring housing and inflation metrics, particularly the CPI and owner’s equivalent rent (OER). They discuss the lag in rent inflation data and its implications on current economic assessments. Mondragon also touches on his research on housing supply dynamics and the long-term impact of housing construction on prices. Following this, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research joins to share his market outlook for the second half of the year. He highlights the persistent inflationary pressures in the housing market and forecasts a continued bullish trend driven by a potential Fed pivot and credit expansion narrative. Pies emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in market dynamics, and discusses strategic asset allocation focusing on quality stocks and alternative investments.

Guests: John Mondragon is a research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He works on the mortgage and housing markets and empirical macroeconomics.

Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets.

Learn more about John at: https://sites.google.com/site/johnnelsonmondragon/

Follow John on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/john-mondragon-250028138

Learn more about Warren at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about

Follow Warren on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437

Show from 06/21/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market trends, focusing on slightly lower-than-expected economic data, jobless claims, and recent activity in the tech sector, particularly NVIDIA's stock movements. Siegel also comments on the ongoing softness in the housing market and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential debate on the stock market. (11:06) Jeremy continues with the publisher of Macro Charts on Substack, who shares insights on market trends, technical analysis, and his investment philosophy. They discuss the recent performance of the U.S. market, and the positioning and potential of China as an investment opportunity. The guest talks about the importance of understanding market signals and avoiding noise in investment decisions. Macro Charts emphasizes the need to focus on significant trends and signals while also being adaptable to the fast-paced changes in market conditions.

Guest: Macro Charts publishes global market research on Substack. Substack is an American online platform that allows journalists, writers, and other content creators to publish newsletters and establish a subscription-based audience.

Learn more about Macro Charts at: https://macrocharts.substack.com/about

Follow Macro Charts on X(Twitter): @MacroCharts

Show from 06/14/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week by discussing the latest inflation data and the Fed meeting outcomes. Professor Siegel highlights that inflation numbers across various indices have met or fallen below expectations, and he anticipates a potential rate cut by the Fed based on the current data trends. Additionally, Siegel touches on the job market’s stability and the strong performance of specific tech stocks despite a narrow market rally. (10:04) Jeremy continues the conversation with Philippe Gijsels, who introduces his new book “The New World Economy in Five Trends.” They discuss the long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt, and the role of innovation in potentially countering these trends. Gijsels elaborates on the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment. The two also discuss the significance of geopolitical shifts, and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors.

Guest: Philippe Gijsels is an enthusiastic investment professional, a rare exception who managed to turn his hobby into a profession. He studied economics and financial analysis, read tons of books on investing and many other topics and has now been working for the Fortis ‘family’, which was renamed BNP Paribas Fortis, for almost 20 years. The integration of the bank into the BNP Paribas group opened up a whole new world of contacts and information for him.

Learn more about Philippe at: https://www.bnpparibasfortis.com/newsroom/press-release/philippe_gijsels_appointed_chief_strategy_officer_at_bnp_paribas_fortis

Follow Philippe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/philippe-gijsels-5563131