Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 3h ago

    Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind

    In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble. Follow First Principles on Spotify Follow First Principles of Apple Podcasts Topics covered: Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public markets How Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO worked Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricing The shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuance Why AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for shares How hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stock The economic test for whether AI investment pays off Disinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacement Why the current economy is still supported by consumption The role of wealth effects and consumer dissaving Why falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressure What Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuance How Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheet Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and key themes 04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO 08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work 13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher 17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply 21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply 26:42 The economic test for AI tokens 32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth? 38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy? 41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer 45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation 49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value 52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer 55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet 58:42 Closing thoughts No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

    1 hr

  2. 3d ago

    The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next

    In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once. Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts Topics covered: Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500 Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500 How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction Timestamps: 00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup 05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO 07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand 12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals 17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX 22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze 28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration 33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency 37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm 41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels 46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress 50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup 57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone 58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO 01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

    1h 8m

  3. 5d ago

    Mike Green on What Happens When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History

    Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests. Michael Green Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Simplify Asset Management https://www.simplify.us/ Topics covered: Why the SpaceX IPO has turned passive investing into a mainstream market structure debate How index committees and passive flows can influence individual stocks Why low float, Nasdaq demand and passive buying could create unusual IPO dynamics How new AI-related equity issuance could change the supply-demand balance in the stock market The research behind passive flows, market impact and cap-weight concentration Why Mike thinks passive buying explains more of mega-cap outperformance than AI fundamentals The circular financing risk in AI, including Nvidia, CoreWeave, Google and Anthropic Why buy-the-dip flows, ETFs, CTAs and vol control funds matter for market direction How headline economic data can miss household stress, second jobs and lost purchasing power What Mike is watching to see whether the AI trade and market narrative are starting to break Why AI may be hugely valuable to consumers before it creates major business productivity gains How companies may eventually redesign business models around AI rather than simply automate tasks Why SpaceX wealth creation could seed the next generation of competitors How inflation, gasoline prices, low savings and a K-shaped economy are affecting consumers Timestamps: 00:00 Passive indices, AI profits and why this market feels different 04:07 Why SpaceX changed the passive investing debate 08:01 The research behind passive flows and market impact 12:16 Why Mike thinks passive flows explain mega-cap strength 16:18 ETF flows, buy-the-dip behavior and bubble dynamics 20:28 Why economic data can miss household stress 25:13 Bubble warnings, CAPE and what investors may be ignoring 29:17 AI as a consumer advice engine versus a productivity revolution 33:29 How businesses may redesign themselves around AI 37:51 Why IPO wealth may create the next generation of competitors 42:06 Mike Green’s upcoming book on passive investing and market structure

    44 min

  4. Jun 9

    We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

    AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector. Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html Topics Covered: AI as a potential general purpose technology Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compounding Timestamps: 00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown 04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy 08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves 13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage 18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge 21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can 26:17 Why 2% growth and 2% inflation may be unlikely 30:31 How to tell if AI augmentation is really working 33:19 AI, globalization and which countries could benefit 38:14 Why investors need a multi-factor macro scorecard 41:23 What AI means for the 60/40 portfolio 44:12 Joe Davis on investing, compounding and Vanguard’s megatrends research

    48 min

  5. Jun 6

    The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float

    On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem. They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure. Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts Dave Nadighttps://x.com/davenadig Cameron Dawsonhttps://x.com/CameronDawson Topics Covered: Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading How 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussion Why pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investors How Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuations Why SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public market How options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discovery Why free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustment How much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPO What the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and credit Why real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubble How liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the market Why advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe access Peak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapes Timestamps: 00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic 04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO 09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX 13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying 17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX 21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble 25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going 29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX 33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access 37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories 41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown 45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins 46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs 50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists 53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture 55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson

    57 min

  6. Jun 4

    Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction

    Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsen Paulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ Topics Covered Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI Timestamps 00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors now Follow the Excess Returns podcasts:https://excessreturnspod.com/ Contact us:excessreturnspod@gmail.com/ No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

    1h 2m

  7. Jun 2

    He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps

    Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired. AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruption Kai Wu on X https://x.com/ckaiwu Sparkline Capital https://www.sparklinecapital.com/ Topics Covered: Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the market How AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value traps Why Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloff How patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruption Why disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investing Why value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological change How intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companies Why Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did not How David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moats Why AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivors Why high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickers Timestamps: 00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount 04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap 08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing 13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history? 14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers 17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing 21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics 25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before 27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption 32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies 35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries 38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps 42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks 47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough 48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies 50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest 52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats 53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion 57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks 01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companies

    1h 4m

  8. May 30

    The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet

    In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics Covered: Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks Timestamps:00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity

    1h 9m
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    520
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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