Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 4시간 전

    Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

    In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Topics Covered Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation Timestamps 00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. 3일 전

    We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

    T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio. Topics covered Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection Timestamps 00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking framework Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. 6일 전

    David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead

    Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market. Topics covered Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts Timestamps 00:00 Introduction08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisis Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. 8월 6일

    4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

    Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction. Variant Perception https://www.variantperception.com/ Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF https://etf.variantperception.com/ Topics covered How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk Timestamps 00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators 04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working 09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator 13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient 17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles? 21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions 26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red 30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike 42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve 46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy 51:11 How AI is changing investment research 55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. 8월 4일

    The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish

    Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis. Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making. Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders https://amzn.to/4h9bi3e Brent Donnelly on X https://x.com/donnelly_brent Spectra Markets https://www.spectramarkets.com Topics covered: Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box 04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas 08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades 12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge 16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon 21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value 25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning 29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders 33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating 37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information 41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge 45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore 50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control 55:00 Choosing family and health over markets 59:00 Why your first thought may not be your own Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

  6. 8월 2일

    A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call

    On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility Timestamps 00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠ No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. 7월 31일

    A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?

    We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change. In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes. We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple Topics covered Why AI CapEx and data center construction have become critical drivers of US economic growthHow hyperscalers are shifting from cash flow financing to debt, equity issuance and private creditWhy a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could threaten markets, the economy and the financial systemHow trillions of dollars in AI investment may crowd out consumer credit, business investment and government borrowingWhy data centers could consume a dramatically larger share of US electricity productionHow energy shortages could lead to higher utility costs, rationing and price controlsWhy the Iran war and higher oil prices may create a lasting increase in global energy costsHow Perscient tracks the return of bearish AI narratives and growing political opposition to data centersWhy both political parties may support government ownership, loan guarantees, bailouts and economic stimulusHow competition with China could become the narrative used to justify greater government control of the AI industryTimestamps 00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt 04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx 08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem 13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable 17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction 22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows 26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with China

  8. 7월 29일

    He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7

    Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets. Rupert Mitchell on X https://x.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com Topics covered Why the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truth How the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio Why positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bonds How AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. markets Why Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadens How China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore services What a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assets Why deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activism The opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governance Why Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setup Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals 08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era 13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade 17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating 22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike 30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities 34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts 38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity 43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage 49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value 53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the Squirrel Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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4.7
최고 5점
88개의 평가

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • 제작진
    Excess Returns
  • 방송 연도
    2019년 - 2026년
  • 에피소드
    548
  • 등급
    무삭제판
  • 저작권
    © 905628
  • 웹사이트 보기
    Excess Returns

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