Bitcoin Magazine Podcast BTC Media

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. 

Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed145

In this episode, CK and I are joined by Chris Alaimo to discuss our macro takeaways from the Bitcoin 2023 conference and then refocus on the macro situation at hand via charts of bitcoin, the dollar, oil, and US Treasuries. Lastly, we discuss recent numbers of the deteriorating Chinese real estate market.

In our comments on the conference, we tried to relate our thoughts back to the macro picture to keep it on-topic for this podcast. We mentioned the fact that even though attendence was down, there might have been more bitcoiners there, since last year was a lot of altcoin attendees. Also, there was a palpable shift from speculation toward serious topics this year. Politicians were some of the biggest speakers, and it came across as if the bitcoin voting block is becoming an important thing.

Other comments we have center around bitcoin becoming a "big tent", where lots of different interests, professions and concerns live, all maturing at a slightly different rate. I mentioned that all these different concerns, like money and banking, politics, energy and environment, art and culture, etc., each have their own Overton Windows, and bitcoin is infiltrating all of them.

On the macro side of the house, we discussed the bitcoin price, stocks, and bonds. Please see the charts below.

Lastly, I read through some Chinese numbers on their real estate market. Existing home sales in their largest cities are down double digits in April alone.

Beijing fell 37.3 percent; Hangzhou fell 32.7 percent; Shanghai fell 26.71 percent; and Nanjing fell 13 percent. The worst decline was in Hefei, which plunged by 40 percent.

It seems the world is not going to avert a global recession. Demand for commodities is crashing, "inflation"/prices are coming down, and we are entering the predicted low growth, low inflation environment at the end of a credit bubble.

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Ansel Lindner On Twitter

Christian Keroles On Twitter

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World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts



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Written by Ansel Lindner

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Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

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Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. 

Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed144

In this episode, CK and I discuss the developing deflationary scenario for the global economy. Far from showing inflation, US CPI and PPI for April came in under forecasts across the board; bank runs continue, with the latest victim being PacWest; and finally, Chinese economic data is flashing danger. I will quickly summarize all those topics below.

CPI for April came in at 0.36% month-over-month (m/m) making the year-over-year (y/y) rate 4.9%. The data are finally starting to show the shelter component rolling over, which is the most lagging part of the index. PPI (producer price index), seen as being uphill of CPI, showed a massive slowdown, with the y/y PPI coming in at 2.3%. The Fed doesn't have to do anything, it is essentially baked in the cake that CPI will be at 2% in the next few months.

Regional banks continue to have problems. Deposit flight from uninsured deposits into money market funds shows no signs of slowing. Why would anyone keep savings in a bank account for 0.5% interest, when they can put it in a money market fund with two clicks and earn 5%? On top of that, anything over $250,000 is uninsured in a bank, so big depositors are taking their money out. PacWest is just the latest to have issues of deposit flight, which we expect will continue. Perhaps, until all regional banks go bust.

China's import/export data was reported this week. Imports were way down, meaning Chinese demand for commodities is going to be low. Commodities prices should remain low or even fall further. Exports were slightly lower for April. Remember, these are nominal numbers, so the total volume is even lower.

Overall, I tried to build a deflationary picture. CPI dropping, banks are going bust, commodities weakening, while bitcoin ready to serve as a monetary replacement. Cheers.

Thanks for joining us! If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button!

Constant updates on bitcoin and macro

Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report

Ansel Lindner On Twitter

Christian Keroles On Twitter

Watch this Episode: YouTube ||  Rumble 


Charts


BLS release


PPI release


PacWest article


Jeff Snider twitter



If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!

Written by Ansel Lindner

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THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:

Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io

River - https://river.com/

Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/

Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/

Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/

Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro



Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

https://b.tc/conference/2023

Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

Alex Gladstein joins Spencer Nichols and Chris Alaimo from Bitcoin Magazine to break down his findings from the process of writing his latest book, "Hidden Repression: How the IMF and World Bank Sell Exploitation as Development". Alex brings to light how the International Monetary Fund positions itself to gain from developing second and third-world countries and why we urgently need to scale Bitcoin to help people in these countries exit their broken monetary systems.



THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:

Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io

River - https://river.com/

Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/

Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/

Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/

Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro



Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

https://b.tc/conference/2023

Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

Good Morning Bitcoin brings together some key players in the Bitcoin industry to talk Politics and Regulation. Amanda Calaveri, Grant McCarty, David Zell, Greg Foss and many more join this space that dives deep into what Bitcoin regulation will look like in the incoming infrastructure bill in the United States.



THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:

Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io

River - https://river.com/

Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/

Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/

Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/

Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro



Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

https://b.tc/conference/2023

Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

Good Morning Bitcoin brings another epic conversation to the table about Bitcoin mining and the innovation that is happening in the mining space. Pierre Rochard, Adam O, Amanda Cavaleri, Luxor Mining, Jason Les, Ethan Vera, and many more break down how mining fits into the future of our energy grids and the coming wave of adoption by energy companies of Bitcoin mining.



THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:

Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io

River - https://river.com/

Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/

Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/

Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/

Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro



Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

https://b.tc/conference/2023

Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

Host: Ansel Lindner

Guest host: Nolan Bauerle

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. 

Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed143

In this episode, I'm joined by Nolan Bauerle and discuss this week's FOMC monetary policy decision in depth. We hit briefly on a change to the IMF stance on CBDCs, which can be extrapolated more broadly to the Davos globalist clique's position.

The Fed decided to raise their policy rate from 4.75-5% up to 5-5.25%, a 25 basis point (bps) hike. They changed the language in the policy statement, which we read through. The main change was the following:

"The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive..." was changed to..."In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate..."

Therefore, the Federal Open Market Committee no longer anticipates additional policy firming, but opens the door to determining no additional policy firming is necessary, in other words, a pause.

We watched three clips of Powell's press conference to display the unease Powell displayed, and how he answered important questions. We noted his statement that he was surprised by the SVB bank run, that the Fed would rather tighten too much than not enough (and this might have been too far), and lastly that he does not think a recession is the base case for the rest of the year.

Lastly, we get to the comments made by IMF chairwoman Kristalina Georgieva.

"... retail CBDCs, they completely transform the financial system in a way that we don’t quite know what consequences it could bring."

Thanks for joining us! If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button!

Constant updates on bitcoin and macro

Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report

Ansel Lindner On Twitter

Christian Keroles On Twitter

Watch this Episode: YouTube ||  Rumble 


Charts


Powell press conference


IMF comments on CBDCs



If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!

Written by Ansel Lindner

Find More and Follow

THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:

Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io

River - https://river.com/

Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/

Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/

Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/

Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro



Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!

https://b.tc/conference/2023

Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store