37 min
Chinese oil demand can't support prices Energy Week
-
- News
Oil slides more than 1% as Chinese GDP dents demand hopes
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-after-libya-resumes-output-china-data-eyed-2023-07-17
- GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the 2nd quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of 7.3%
- what analysts were forecasting such high growth?
- slow correction where expectations come back down to reality
China's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-june-industrial-output-rises-020809002.html
- China's industrial output grew 4.4% in June from a year earlier, unexpectedly accelerating from 3.5% seen in May
- Retail sales grew 3.1% in June, slowing from a 12.7% jump in May. Analysts had expected growth of 3.2%.
- Are the kind of okay numbers from China signals that the Chinese economy is actually much worse?
Chinese Oil Demand Doesn’t Make Sense
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-oil-demand-doesnt-make-sense-cbc02a44
- "Either China’s economy will accelerate rapidly in the second half—a prospect that currently looks unlikely—or oil demand will revert to more regular patterns, dragging global consumption and, potentially, prices down with it." *** Really???***
- Could there be a mismatch between petroleum imports quotas and what they actually need.
- "China doesn’t regularly publish petroleum inventory data as the U.S. does, so it is difficult to say for sure how much diesel might be sitting in storage somewhere."
Oil Bulls are Getting it All Wrong, Wall Street Veteran Warns
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bulls-getting-wrong-wall-101242402.html
- “The bulls got it all wrong,” said Ed Morse, the bank’s veteran head of commodities research. “The world is still waiting for a real Chinese recovery, Europe is in recession and we still don’t know if the US will have a hard landing.”
- Citi's call for oil's summer average was $83/barrel. More realistic that the $97/barrel calls. But it's still off from $78...
Japan to Propose Global Natural Gas Reserve to Avoid Shortages
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-propose-global-natural-gas-040004888.html
- Can see why indiv countries would want to do this, but will global natural gas supplies be helpful the same way global oil reserves are when natural gas isn't traded like oil is?
- Also, higher nat gas prices make Permian wells more valuable
- Regional natural gas storage frameworks make much more sense
Dirty and Sludgy Oil Runs Hot in Asia as Saudis Cut Supply Back
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dirty-sludgy-oil-runs-hot-051227587.html
- Less light oil on the market from Saudi Arabia and UAE has made buyers look for heavy, sour crudes
- Urals price is now up close to price cap price
- Was this intentional by Saudis?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
Oil slides more than 1% as Chinese GDP dents demand hopes
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-after-libya-resumes-output-china-data-eyed-2023-07-17
- GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the 2nd quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of 7.3%
- what analysts were forecasting such high growth?
- slow correction where expectations come back down to reality
China's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-june-industrial-output-rises-020809002.html
- China's industrial output grew 4.4% in June from a year earlier, unexpectedly accelerating from 3.5% seen in May
- Retail sales grew 3.1% in June, slowing from a 12.7% jump in May. Analysts had expected growth of 3.2%.
- Are the kind of okay numbers from China signals that the Chinese economy is actually much worse?
Chinese Oil Demand Doesn’t Make Sense
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-oil-demand-doesnt-make-sense-cbc02a44
- "Either China’s economy will accelerate rapidly in the second half—a prospect that currently looks unlikely—or oil demand will revert to more regular patterns, dragging global consumption and, potentially, prices down with it." *** Really???***
- Could there be a mismatch between petroleum imports quotas and what they actually need.
- "China doesn’t regularly publish petroleum inventory data as the U.S. does, so it is difficult to say for sure how much diesel might be sitting in storage somewhere."
Oil Bulls are Getting it All Wrong, Wall Street Veteran Warns
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bulls-getting-wrong-wall-101242402.html
- “The bulls got it all wrong,” said Ed Morse, the bank’s veteran head of commodities research. “The world is still waiting for a real Chinese recovery, Europe is in recession and we still don’t know if the US will have a hard landing.”
- Citi's call for oil's summer average was $83/barrel. More realistic that the $97/barrel calls. But it's still off from $78...
Japan to Propose Global Natural Gas Reserve to Avoid Shortages
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-propose-global-natural-gas-040004888.html
- Can see why indiv countries would want to do this, but will global natural gas supplies be helpful the same way global oil reserves are when natural gas isn't traded like oil is?
- Also, higher nat gas prices make Permian wells more valuable
- Regional natural gas storage frameworks make much more sense
Dirty and Sludgy Oil Runs Hot in Asia as Saudis Cut Supply Back
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dirty-sludgy-oil-runs-hot-051227587.html
- Less light oil on the market from Saudi Arabia and UAE has made buyers look for heavy, sour crudes
- Urals price is now up close to price cap price
- Was this intentional by Saudis?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
37 min