CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year. 
 
2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows
Hannah Friedrich
“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”
 
Majerle Lister
“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”
 
Lucas Belury
“Flood Justice in South Texas”
 
Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording
“What's going on with the rains?”

It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season.  In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon.  Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season?  Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying?  Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!  
 
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
 
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts.  The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season.  And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!
Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024    Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late

It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around.


Mentions:

ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower

Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map

National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks






CLIMAS Member(s):  

Zack Guido

Michael Crimmins

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode


Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.  Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.  This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.  And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!


Mentions:


Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.  Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan



The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002



Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah


Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark



Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021



Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah



Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019

Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017

Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022

The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023

Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022



Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna 



Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017



Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly.  Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson


 






CLIMAS Member(s):  

Zack Guido

Michael Crimmins

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about.  They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers.  The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation.  Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten!

Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023!  We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com. 


Mentions: 

U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble

USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent 

“Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries”

Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?”






CLIMAS Member(s):  

Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido