CommBank Agri Podcast commbankagripodcast

Global wheat prices have experienced a sharp decline this week. The drop was driven by improved growing conditions across key export markets, Türkiye announcing a wheat import ban and winter wheat harvest beginning in the northern hemisphere. South Australia and Western Victoria remain the dry trouble spots of Australia. Meanwhile, rainfall has continued to blanket large swathes of Western Australia, with some farmers receiving last year’s rainfall total in just one week.
 
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Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
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This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Recent rainfall over Western Australia has improved the trajectory of the season for many farmers. On page four we delve into the impact on major WA cropping zones. Meanwhile global grains and oilseeds markets have declined. For wheat the decline was driven by a stabilisation of Russian wheat crop estimates, improved growing conditions elsewhere and the beginning of the northern hemisphere harvest. In canola, prices declined because of improving conditions in Canada and Western Australia, in addition to the approaching northern hemisphere harvest compounding on weakness in other oilseed markets.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Russian weather challenges continue to drive markets higher, that’s despite improving conditions in other regions. Russian consultancy IKAR downgraded wheat production to 83.5mmt from 86mmt. Track/FIS APW1 prices were up 2%/wk. APW1 is trading between $368/mt track Port Kembla to $420/tonne FIS Kwinana. With the rapid rise in overseas markets, local track prices in NSW, VIC and SA have begun to trade at a discount to overseas levels. For more updates, follow Dennis on X @Voz_Dennis or search Dennis Voznesenski on LinkedIn.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Despite improving seasonal conditions in north America and stabilising crop estimates in Europe, global wheat prices continued to rocket higher, rising 4% for the week. Global wheat prices are now at the highest level since mid-2023 and up 28% in the span of only 1 month. The wheat market has been driven by a continued deterioration of Russian crop prospects, with more downgrades likely to come in the next couple of weeks.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

CBOT Wheat prices were up a mind boggling 7.3% on the week to 670USc/bu. Since the lows of April 19th, CBOT Wheat and EU MATIF Wheat have increased by 26%. A massive short covering by funds has intensified a rally fuelled by Russian advances in Ukraine and weather challenges around the world. The question is where to now? While we forecasted the price direction correctly on the 15th of April, the rapid CBOT Wheat price rise has exceeded our 12-month forecast range…in 1 month. We believe the magnitude of the rise will be dependent on how much lower the Russian crop falls and how much headway Russia makes in Ukraine. If both factors plateau, the price rise should slow, and be limited by northern hemisphere harvest AND the fact that short positions by funds would be already liquidated.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Global Wheat are up 13% since the lows of April 18 when the price rally began. Wheat prices were pushed higher by concerns of a drying Russian winter wheat crop and declining stock levels more broadly across the Black Sea and Danube countries. Australian Track APW1 wheat prices increased 1.8%/wk on average across port zones.
While we forecasted a wheat price rise globally and locally, the speed and magnitude of the rise has come about faster and more furiously than expected.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.