Cross Tabs

Farrah Bostic
  • 5,0 (9)
  • POLITIQUE
  • CHAQUE SEMAINE
Cross Tabs

No soft political analysis from ex-campaign staffers. No predictions. No unskewing the polls. Cross Tabs is a show to help you understand how political polls are designed and conducted so you can make your own judgments about which polls to pay attention to, how to compare them to other polls, and simply, how to understand what a poll is actually telling you … especially in what is sure to be a strange election season. Hosted by strategist and (qualitative) researcher Farrah Bostic with regular contributions from her more quantie friends, this show will walk through polling methodologies and results, and provide a researcher's context for at least one publicly available poll each week. No need to be a statistician or pollster - we’ll explain everything as we go along.

  1. -2 H

    26: Brian Schaffner on Studying Hard Things

    Modern political polling faces fascinating challenges beyond simple statistical accuracy - from voters who strategically misrepresent their views to express partisan loyalty, to the complex task of predicting who will actually show up to vote. Despite popular perception of a deeply divided America, research suggests voters are far more moderate on individual issues than their partisan voting behavior would indicate.  Brian Schaffner, professor at Tufts University and Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study (CES), joins Farrah on Cross Tabs to discuss the evolution of political polling methodology. He shares insights from running one of the largest academic election surveys, which interviews 60,000 Americans during election years. The conversation covers innovations in online polling, the science of predicting voter turnout, and how political campaigns are increasingly embracing data-driven decision making. Schaffner addresses common misconceptions about polling accuracy and explains why it takes months after an election to fully understand voting patterns and demographic shifts.    Resources Tufts University Cooperative Election Study (CES) https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study  Interactive Visualization Tools from CES https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study/ces-quick-tools  QAnon and Conspiracy Beliefs Report by Brian Schaffner https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/qanon-and-conspiracy-beliefs/  Financial Times, “Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents” https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893  Mike Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading “Is this What Democracy Looks Like?” https://www.weekendreading.net/p/is-this-what-democracy-looks-like    Our Guest Brian Schaffner is the inaugural Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He is also Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study, the largest academic survey of the American public and a core resource for academic researchers and the news media for understanding public opinion and American elections.    Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.   Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  a...

    58 min

  2. 14 NOV.

    25: Valens Games: Providence & Politics

    Immersive simulations and war games are transforming how organizations make complex decisions and understand human behavior, with artificial intelligence now making these powerful tools more accessible than ever. By putting participants in realistic scenarios with emotional stakes, these games reveal blind spots in thinking, challenge assumptions, and build cognitive empathy across divides.  This episode features Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Eleanor Ross of Valens Games, who discuss their work creating sophisticated political and national security simulations. They share insights on using AI to democratize game design, the importance of incorporating humor and humanity into serious scenarios, and how simulations can help bridge social divisions by encouraging participants to see issues from multiple perspectives. The conversation touches on applications ranging from academic teaching to corporate decision-making, highlighting how games create safe spaces for practicing high-consequence choices.  Resources  Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore https://a.co/d/5IJOIdS     War Game (Documentary) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt26681810/    Providence (Platform) http://providence.valensgames.com/ Acceleration (Game) https://valensglobal.com/what-we-do/simulations-hub/wargames-simulations/   Our Guests  Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games, pioneering the use of immersive simulations and AI-powered game design in national security, politics, and organizational decision-making. A counterterrorism expert who previously led the drafting of the Department of Homeland Security's 2019 counterterrorism strategy, Gartenstein-Ross transitioned from teaching at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program to developing innovative educational gaming experiences that help participants challenge assumptions and think differently about complex challenges.  Eleanor Ross joined Valens Games after first experiencing their work as a student at Duke University, where she participated in and then team-led national security simulations. With a research background and plans to enter government service, Ross was drawn to Valens Games' unique approach to learning and now helps develop immersive exercises that build cognitive empathy and critical thinking skills. She specializes in creating engaging narratives and characters that make complex scenarios more approachable and meaningful for participants.  Your Host  Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.   Subscribe to Cross Tabs  Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  a...

    1 h 7 min

  3. 31 OCT.

    24: Hit 'Em Where it Hurts with Rachel Bitecofer

    Despite decades of political polling and analysis, most voters know almost nothing about politics, policy, or current events - and traditional campaign strategies completely fail to account for this reality. The key to winning elections isn't policy positions or positive messaging, but rather effectively defining your opponent before they can define you.  Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, political analyst and author of Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts, joins Farrah Bostic to break down why Democratic campaign strategies are fundamentally flawed and what actually moves voters. Drawing from her experience as a pollster and strategist, Bitecofer explains how Republicans have mastered "negative partisanship" messaging while Democrats continue to waste resources on micro-targeting and policy-focused campaigns that don't reach or resonate with most voters. She argues that Democrats must adopt more effective branding and messaging strategies that speak to voters' immediate concerns and fears, rather than assuming an informed and engaged electorate that doesn't exist.    Resources  Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game by Rachel Bitecofer - https://a.co/d/9gcRHxM   It Was All a Lie by Stuart Stevens - https://a.co/d/hDkoAoJ   Virginia Governor Poll Study (2019-2020) by Rachel Bitecofer - https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-10-07-va-leg-1/   Partisan Response Study by Rachel Bitecofer - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414607  The Next Level Podcast featuring Sarah Longwell -  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-next-level/id1647085571   Blueprint Research - https://blueprint2024.com/about/    Our Guest  Rachel Bitecofer is a political analyst, strategist, and author of Hit Them Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game. After a career in academia where she taught political science and ran a survey research center, Bitecofer shifted to focus on reforming Democratic campaign strategy. Known for her theory of negative partisanship and accurate electoral predictions, she argues that traditional Democratic campaign approaches fundamentally misunderstand voter psychology and behavior.   Unlike conventional pollsters and analysts, she emphasizes that most voters are largely uninformed about politics and make decisions based on emotional triggers rather than policy positions. Bitecofer has worked with the Democratic National Committee to implement more effective messaging strategies and regularly provides commentary on political campaigns and electoral dynamics.   Your Host  Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more ata...

    1 h 29 min

  4. 22 OCT.

    23: Only the Good Poll Young, with Anil Cacodcar of Harvard POP

    In this episode, Farrah talks to the Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, Anil Cacodcar, about the origins and evolution of the Poll, which was started by students in 2000. We discuss the process the student team uses to develop survey questions, organize research topics, and partner with the Ipsos Knowledge Panel to reach young respondents. We also discuss insights from the latest poll data, including a shift in enthusiasm among young Democrats after Kamala Harris joined the ticket, the gender gap in candidate perceptions, and the role of factors like candidate characteristics and social media in shaping youth opinion. We also discussed challenges in measuring the impact of media consumption and events on young voters' opinions in the current information landscape, and get Anil's perspective on the future of youth polling and what he'll be watching for in the upcoming election. Throughout the conversation, we explore the complexities of understanding and reaching the youth electorate, as well as the importance of qualitative research to complement polling data. After the interview, Farrah shares some reflections on the last 2 weeks of the polling landscape — and why you should avert your gaze to other more pressing matters: like defending the votes that are already being cast. Our Guest: Anil Cacodcar, is an undergraduate student at Harvard and Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which runs the nation's largest poll on the political opinions and civic attitudes of young Americans. He studies both Economics and Human Developmental & Regenerative Biology. Resources: The latest Harvard Youth Poll Harvard Public Opinion Project "Americans under 21 first voted 50 years ago. It didn’t go as expected." The Washington Post US Elections Project Your Host  Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.   Subscribe to Cross Tabs  Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  Apple Podcasts Spotify

    1 h 3 min
  5. 22: The Gen Z Gender Gap and other Polling Stories, wit Professor John Sides

    16 OCT.

    22: The Gen Z Gender Gap and other Polling Stories, wit Professor John Sides

    Political polling and forecasting are complex and fraught with uncertainty, yet they remain crucial tools for understanding elections and voter behavior. The challenge lies in accurately modeling likely electorates, communicating probabilities to the public, and interpreting correlations between issues and voting patterns.  In this episode, Farrah talks to John Sides, a political scientist and professor at Vanderbilt University. Sides discusses the difficulties in surveying young voters, the limitations of issue-importance questions in polls, and his ideal dataset for studying voter behavior across election cycles. He emphasizes the need for more nuanced interpretations of polling data and forecasts, urging us all to embrace uncertainty while still finding value in the data.    Resources Good Authority By John Sides: 'Another viral gender gap graph doesn’t tell the whole story’'What voters say is important doesn’t actually affect their vote'  Our Guest John Sides is a distinguished political scientist and professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. His research focuses on political behavior, public opinion, and the dynamics of American elections. Sides is also a co-founder of Good Authority, a publication that brings academic insights to bear on current political issues. Previously, he was a founding editor of The Monkey Cage, a popular political science blog that was later published by The Washington Post.   Sides is known for his data-driven approach to analyzing political trends and his ability to communicate complex political concepts to a general audience. He has authored several books on American politics and elections, including The Gamble and Identity Crisis, which examined the factors behind Donald Trump's 2016 election victory.    Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.    Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  Apple Podcasts Spotify

    1 h 9 min
  6. 21: Lost in a Gallup, with Professor W. Joseph Campbell

    10 OCT.

    21: Lost in a Gallup, with Professor W. Joseph Campbell

    Quick production note: Farrah's audio gets better a couple of minutes into the recording. We have no idea what went wrong, but you'll only suffer for a few minutes before everyone sounds great. :) In this episode, host Farrah Bostic explores the fascinating relationship between journalism and polling, inspired by the book Lost in a Gallup, with its author, Professor W. Joseph Campbell. We discuss the historical evolution of polling from its early days, marked by the Literary Digest's infamous 1936 failure, to the upstart methodologies of Gallup, Roper, and Crossley. The conversation highlights the love-hate relationship between journalists and pollsters, exploring the mutual benefits and tensions that have shaped their interactions over decades. We also examine major polling failures, including the 1948 Dewey-Truman election, and the complexities of modern polling methods. The episode emphasizes the human desire for prediction and the underlying challenges of accurately gauging public opinion in an ever-evolving media landscape. Our GuestW. Joseph Campbell is a former newspaper and wire service journalist who reported from four continents in an award-winning twenty-year career. He is currently professor emeritus at American University's School of Communication, and is the author of Lost in a Gallup (2020), Getting It Wrong (2010, 2017), and 1995: The Year the Future Began (2015) among other works. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.   Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  Apple Podcasts Spotify

    1 h 11 min
  7. 20: "Cool Poll, Crypto Bro" with Molly White

    24 SEPT.

    20: "Cool Poll, Crypto Bro" with Molly White

    This week we're taking a break from national polling to talk about polling done by a group trying hard to influence the outcome of various races this cycle: crypto bros. The influence and agenda of the crypto industry is lurking behind a lot of the candidates and their policy positions. Crypto PACs are raising and spending over $100 million on 2024 races. It's in crypto's interests to portray itself as representing a large voting bloc who will vote based on a candidate's position on crypto — via industry-funded polls making claims about American's crypto behavior and beliefs. They seem to be cutting through: the RNC adopted an entire plank of crypto-industry pet positions into their party platform. Who better to talk through these polls, PACs, and policy positions than cryptoresearcher Molly White. She joins me to break down the way the industry is trying to persuade through polls, and why we need more journalists and politicos to bring a much higher level of scrutiny to industry polling. ResourcesCitation Needed - a newsletter featuring explainers of developments in the cryptocurrency industry. We talked about this article.Web3 Is Going Great - a project to track examples of blockchains/crypto/web3 technology projects that aren't going very well.Follow the Crypto"The Black Investors Who Were Burned by Bitcoin", The AtlanticPew Research report on cryptoAdam Tooze on crypto & the GOP Our guestMolly White is a researcher, software engineer, and prominent critic of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based projects. She is best known for her website Web3 is Going Just Great, which documents only some of the many disasters in the cryptocurrency and web3 industries, and for her Follow the Crypto election spending tracker. Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Apple PodcastsSpotifySubstack

    1 h 7 min
  8. 19: Escape from Election Twitter, with Lakshya Jain

    17 SEPT.

    19: Escape from Election Twitter, with Lakshya Jain

    Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality.  In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions.  Resources Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.org Split Ticket's Presidential Polling Aggregator We Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico) How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times) How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times) Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight) Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast Our Guest Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:  Apple Podcasts Spotify

    1 h 3 min
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À propos

No soft political analysis from ex-campaign staffers. No predictions. No unskewing the polls. Cross Tabs is a show to help you understand how political polls are designed and conducted so you can make your own judgments about which polls to pay attention to, how to compare them to other polls, and simply, how to understand what a poll is actually telling you … especially in what is sure to be a strange election season. Hosted by strategist and (qualitative) researcher Farrah Bostic with regular contributions from her more quantie friends, this show will walk through polling methodologies and results, and provide a researcher's context for at least one publicly available poll each week. No need to be a statistician or pollster - we’ll explain everything as we go along.

Informations

  • Création
    Farrah Bostic
  • Années d’activité
    2 k
  • Épisodes
    26
  • Classification
    Tous publics
  • Copyright
    © Farrah Bostic
  • Site web de l’émission
    Cross Tabs

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